Super Bowl Expert Picks 2024: Novelty Props, Game Picks & Best Bets

Our Sportsbook Review betting experts assembled their Super Bowl expert picks for the Big Game as the Kansas City Chiefs play the San Francisco 49ers based on the best NFL odds.

The Big Game is inching closer and the 2024 Super Bowl odds and lines across our best Super Bowl betting sites are as tight as ever. That's to be expected in the final hours before the Kansas City Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers, with kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

We’re making our Super Bowl expert picks as a complement to our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and the rest of our Super Bowl predictions. As always, Sportsbook Review advises you to shop around across our best NFL betting sites to ensure you’re getting the best possible odds on all of your picks.

That’s what we’re here to help you do. Be sure to take advantage of the best Super Bowl odds boosts and betting promotions, and the best free Super Bowl betting contests.

Here are our Super Bowl expert picks; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Expert picks for Super Bowl 58

Editor's note: Picks on the Super Bowl novelty props are made with low confidence. They do not have any inside information. Please note that you're wagering on 50/50 outcomes in most cases.

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Expert Super Bowl predictions

Justin Watson Over 1.5 receptions ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds:

I discussed in our Super Bowl player props that this will be the kind of game in which Patrick Mahomes throws primarily to his most trusted options. That was in reference to us fading Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s Super Bowl receiving props.

Now, the problem with this is that beyond Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, it’s difficult to know who Mahomes even does trust, if anyone. However, Justin Watson has been featured as the No. 3 option numerous times throughout the season, and I expect him to fill that role again on Sunday.

Most of our best sports betting sites have Watson’s Over 1.5 receptions prop priced at either -105 or -110, with only  offering similarly appealing odds at +110. Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, has the Over priced at +101.

Watson is projected to finish with 1.88 receptions in the Super Bowl. When we run that projection against these  on Over 1.5 receptions, we’re getting roughly 22% positive expected value on this bet.

You’re likely going to have to sweat a drop or two - or at least the possibility of every time the ball is heading in Watson’s direction. But this bet is showing good value for those hunting plus-money odds on player props.

Be sure to check out our longest plays predictions, which further discusses Watson's outlook on Sunday.

–– Andrew Brennan (SBR | )

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Nick Bosa to record a sack ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: 

Bosa opened as the consensus favorite by the , but his odds have been on the rise over the past week. This new-found  for “Yes” in the book’s “Will Nick Bosa record a sack” market is one bettors need to jump on.

In Super Bowl LIV, the 49ers' pass rusher sacked Patrick Mahomes once and recorded five combined tackles while also forcing a fumble. That was as a rookie.

Bosa was made the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history in the fall and finished the regular season with a three-year low of 10.5 sacks across 17 games. He rebounded from being held without a sack through the Niners’ first two playoff games to record two in the NFC Championship.

We can also get Bosa to record the most sacks in Super Bowl 58 at . If you think the 49ers are going to win on Sunday, the same book offers a market-best price of +12500 for Bosa in their Super Bowl MVP odds for those who missed the +15000 price before the conference championships.

For other ways to profit on this side of the ball, check out our best defensive props.

–– Esten McLaren (SBR | )

Shortest TD Under 1.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: 

I've already gone into further detail on my favorite way to bet the spread, total, and props market in my Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction, which I’d recommend checking out if you haven’t already.

One bet stands above the rest, though, and that’s the shortest touchdown.

At -140 odds, you’d expect this prop to cash roughly 58.3% of the time according to our odds converter. In reality, the shortest touchdown has been Under 1.5 yards in 36 of 57 Super Bowls (63.2%), and it cashed in seven of the last eight years - including each of Kansas City’s last three appearances - with a 70% hit rate over the last three decades.

Simply put, it's much more common than you’d think for teams to march down the field to the 1-yard line, and that’s especially true for offenses with a prolific run game or short passing attack. That applies for the 49ers and Chiefs, who combined for three goal-line scores in Super Bowl LIV.

The Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles each scored a one-yard touchdown in last year’s Super Bowl, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see multiple such scores in Super Bowl 58. You only need one to cash the Under on this bet, which is my single biggest position of the Big Game.

For more ways to bet on touchdowns, check out our Super Bowl anytime touchdown scorer odds and 1st TD predictions.

–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | )

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