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Super Bowl Betting Strategies 2025: How to Approach Picks for the Big Game

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: August 19, 2024 9:21 AM EDT • 8 min read.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes celebrates as we look at 2025 Super Bowl betting strategies.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes celebrates after defeating the San Francisco 49ers in overtime of Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Photo by: Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports.

With so many options to bet on ahead of the Big Game, it never hurts to devise or revisit some Super Bowl betting strategies with NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites.

After a slow start to the 2024 Super Bowl, we were treated to a thrilling finish last season, with the Kansas City Chiefs outlasting the San Francisco 49ers during the second overtime result in Super Bowl history.

It was a record-setting day for sports betting, with more people wagering on this year's Super Bowl odds than ever before. But it was still a tough day for sportsbooks, with the public cleaning up on the Chiefs and the Over for many popular Super Bowl player props.

We like to think we may have had something to do with those outcomes, as our predictions were on point. If you enjoyed a profitable day or want to turn the page on a tough showing, it's never too early to look ahead to our 2025 Super Bowl predictions.

How to bet on Super Bowl odds

The 2024 Super Bowl matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers resulted in a major split between sharps and the betting public, with big money on favorite San Francisco and the majorty of bets on the underdog Kansas City.

Those backing the favorites had to lay -120 odds for much of the two weeks ahead of Super Bowl 58, meaning they'd have to bet $120 to win $100. Of course, those who backed the Chiefs were happy to cash their tickets, most of which featured plus-money odds.

Others still had money on the total - which closed at 46.5, just a half-point shy of the exact combined score of Super Bowl 58 - and others were heavily invested in the various Super Bowl prop bet odds. There's no "right" way to attack the Super Bowl, but some strategies are certainly more profitable than others.

Moneyline: Who will win the Super Bowl?

A moneyline bet is simply a prediction of which side will win the game. It doesn't matter what the point spread is for a moneyline wager, which only rewards the outright winner for the Super Bowl.

As mentioned above, the 49ers were dealing around -120 to win Super Bowl 58 across most of our best sportsbooks, meaning you needed to bet $120 to win $100 if San Francisco won it all. The Chiefs, on the other hand, featured +110 odds at most shops, meaning every $100 bet returned a profit of $110 once Kansas City scored the upset victory.

Of course, you don't have to bet $100 on the Super Bowl. For example, if you bet $10 on the Chiefs moneyline at +110 odds, you would have netted $11 in return if they beat the 49ers. You could have even bet $1 to win $1.10 - there's no shame in that!

Managing your bankroll is one of the best ways to remain profitable as a sports bettor and leave enough money for the wide variety of prop bets available ahead of the Super Bowl every year.

Spread: Who will cover the Super Bowl line?

The opening spread for Super Bowl 58 saw the 49ers dealing as 2.5-point favorites, but that quickly moved to as short as +1 on the defending champion Chiefs, who have now cashed as underdogs in each of the last two Super Bowls.

Kansas City closed between +1.5 and +2.5 across our best live betting sites, meaning they'd need to win outright or lose by 1-2 points to cover the spread. If they had lost by exactly two points, they would have cashed any tickets at +2.5 but lost for anyone who bet them at +1.5.

With a point spread this small, many bettors prefer to wager on the moneyline, and that would have been a profitable strategy in 2024. That said, it usually doesn't hurt to have that extra point in your back pocket if the odds are comparable.

Over/Under: How many points will be scored?

When betting on the total, you want to decide whether the combined points scored from both teams will go Over or Under that number.

The Super Bowl has seen virtually identical results for both sides over the years, so there's no "wrong" answer when betting the Super Bowl. Sometimes the "right" side can be dependent on when you bet, which was the case for Super Bowl 58.

For nearly the entire two weeks leading up to the Big Game, the total was dealing at 47.5. Then, right before kickoff, it closed at 46.5. The final score of 25-22 resulted in exactly 47 points scored - meaning those who bet the Over or Under would have had different results based on when they placed the wager.

Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.

Other popular Super Bowl bets

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after defeating the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game and was a focal point of last year

Player props

There is seemingly no end to the available Super Bowl props each year, and that was certainly the case for Chiefs-49ers in 2024.

The most popular offerings are player props, which task you with betting the Over or Under on totals like passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, and whether a player will reach the end zone with our Super Bowl anytime touchdown scorer odds.

For those looking for the best way to profit on your football knowledge without needing to nail the actual game result, player props are the way to go.

Game props

Game props include a variety of bets related to various game-specific outcomes, like Super Bowl score predictions or other bets related to game totals, exact margins, or whether the Super Bowl will go to overtime.

One of my favorite markets to bet is the Super Bowl opening kickoff touchback odds, as we've seen a touchback just nine times in Super Bowl history even with "Yes" priced as the heavy favorite in recent years. Those are the types of bets that can be especially fun to build out your Super Bowl betting portfolio.

Novelty props

These props don't test your football knowledge as much as your pop culture insights or, in the case of the ever-popular Super Bowl coin toss odds, your appetite for betting on a 50/50 outcome.

As silly as they may seem, novelty props are truly a welcome scene for bettors of any experience or skill level, and there can be value found in these markets, too.

Ahead of the 2024 Super Bowl, we went in depth on the Super Bowl national anthem odds, how to approach Usher's performance with the Super Bowl halftime show odds, and even the popular Super Bowl Gatorade color odds for the liquid poured on the winning head coach.

Expect those markets to be available ahead of the 2025 Super Bowl, too, and we'll have you covered when they are.

Parlay/SGPs

Parlays are rarely a good idea for those looking for the most profitable bet, but they can be a fun way to chase a big payout with long odds by combining multiple outcomes into one wager.

We took a deep dive into Super Bowl parlays and the best ways to build a same-game parlay (SGP, so I'd highly recommend checking out that guide before building your own SGP for the Super Bowl.

Long shots

If you're looking for a way to chase a big payday without adding the extra risk from a parlay, consider wagering on one or two individual bets at long odds.

Unlike with a parlay, you don't need multiple events to occur just to cash your bet. Instead, you can focus on identifying one specific angle that is unlikely but could happen under the right circumstances - and if it does, you'll remember it forever.

We highlighted our favorite Super Bowl long-shot bets ahead of Super Bowl 58, and two of them cashed at long odds. Hitting even one or two of those bets can make the ultimate difference between a losing day and a winning one for the Big Game.

Super Bowl betting strategies

Super Bowl odds
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy reacts during the NFC Championship against the Detroit Lions.

Track line movement

Knowing the line movement and following along with price shopping across our best NFL betting sites for various markets can give bettors an idea of where the value might be heading. If you see the total go from 47.5 to 50.5, for instance, you may want to consider going in another direction instead of betting into a line that the market has already devalued.

Becoming a late adopter and chasing line movement could hurt you in the long run if you’re sacrificing value just to be part of the “popular” pick. That's why it helps to shop around early and keep an eye on which lines are moving.

Create a narrative and stick with it

Do your research and settle on what style of game you expect to see in the Super Bowl. There are enough stats and trends out there to form a cogent argument about almost any potential outcome, but it's important to develop your own plan for the game and bet into it.

For example, if you felt the Chiefs' passing offense would have success against the 49ers, you may have wanted to bet the Over on Patrick Mahomes' passing props. But you wouldn't want to also bet the Under on Kansas City's receivers, for example, unless you felt confident about which players he would ultimately target.

Deciding what to trust - and then staying committed to it - is an important practice for a disciplined bettor.

Shop around for markets AND odds

With the growing number of legal options available to the modern sports bettor, you’re doing yourself a disservice if you’re not shopping around for the best combination of a favorable line (spread, total, etc.) at the top Super Bowl prices you can find.

We regularly preach the value of line shopping at Sportsbook Review, as that's at the core of everything we do. As part of that, I can't stress enough the value of checking our best sportsbook promos - especially for a popular event like the Super Bowl - to get the absolute most out of every wager you place.

How to read Super Bowl odds

Reading Super Bowl prop odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet.

For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600. Negative odds (e.g., -200) indicate how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $200 bet at -200 odds would win you $100, plus your $200 stake, totaling $300.

These odds also reflect the probability of a particular Super Bowl outcome. Lower odds (e.g., +300) suggest a higher likelihood, while higher odds (e.g., +2000) indicate a lower probability. Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on player and team performance, news, inside rumors, and betting patterns.

If Christian McCaffrey gets +500 odds and George Kittle gets +1000 odds to score a touchdown, McCaffrey is considered more likely to hit paydirt. If you bet $100 on the running back and he finds the end zone, you’d get $600 back ($500 profit + $100 stake).

Super Bowl FAQs

When is Super Bowl 59? 

Super Bowl LIX is set for Feb. 9, 2025, at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La.

Which sportsbooks offer Super Bowl bets?

All of the best sportsbooks operating in North America will offer a wide range of Super Bowl markets, though not every sports betting site will feature the same markets available. Can't find a player prop bet you'd like to make? Shop around!

Who won the Super Bowl last year?

The Kansas City Chiefs recorded a 25-22 overtime victory against the San Francisco 49ers during Super Bowl 58. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes won the Super Bowl MVP.

Who is predicted to win the Super Bowl in 2025?

The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are co-favorites to win the Super Bowl again this season. However, our Super Bowl predictions see other potential outcomes.

Super Bowl betting odds pages

Don't miss our Super Bowl betting promos and all of our other NFL futures.

Here are our best Super Bowl betting sites:

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.