Super Bowl Betting History 2025: Looking at the Long-Shots, Underdogs and Blowout Favorites
Last Updated: August 19, 2024 9:37 AM EDT • 5 min 64 sec read.
Exciting comebacks. Long-shot winners. There is no shortage of Super Bowl betting history for the Big Game. We have you covered with the best historical trends for the Super Bowl using NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites.
No sporting event is more synonymous with betting than the Super Bowl. Over the years, there have been several memorable and seemingly improbable outcomes in the NFL’s championship game, and there is no shortage of Super Bowl odds available this year, too.
While we will advise against making your Super Bowl predictions based solely on betting history, it may at least be worth considering some of the Super Bowl trends in this article from a broad perspective.
Recent Super Bowl winners
| Season | Winning team | Preseason odds | Pregame odds |
| 2023 | Chiefs | +600 | +110 |
| 2022 | Chiefs | +1000 | +100 |
| 2021 | Rams | +1200 | -200 |
| 2020 | Buccaneers | +1000 | +140 |
| 2019 | Chiefs | +600 | -130 |
| 2018 | Patriots | +600 | -135 |
| 2017 | Eagles | +4000 | +170 |
| 2016 | Patriots | +600 | -145 |
| 2015 | Broncos | +900 | +180 |
| 2014 | Patriots | +650 | +100 |
As you might expect, betting a team to win it all before the start of the season has afforded a much larger payout than betting just before the Super Bowl. But it's interesting to note that six of the last 10 Super Bowl winners were the underdog going into the game.
The 2015 Broncos, 2017 Eagles, and 2021 Buccaneers were all underdogs of +140 or higher in their respective Super Bowl matchups. Despite going into the 2021 season with 12-1 Super Bowl odds, Los Angeles became the largest pregame favorite at -200 odds to win the title.
The Chiefs (+600) entered last season as the consensus title favorites, while the 49ers (+1000) weren't far behind.
Long-shot Super Bowl winners
We've seen several long-shot Super Bowl winners over the years.
Depending on when a bettor bought into a team on the futures market, sometimes the best value appeared in the middle of the regular season.
The following list looks back on some impressive value that has been available on Super Bowl winners over time.
- 1980 Oakland Raiders: +3500 preseason and +1500 entering Wild Card Round
- 1981 San Francisco 49ers: +5000 preseason
- 1999 St. Louis Rams: +15000 preseason
- 2001 New England Patriots: +6000 preseason and +1400 entering AFC Championship
- 2007 New York Giants: +5000 entering Wild Card Round and +1500 entering NFC Championship
- 2010 Green Bay Packers: +2800 entering Week 16
- 2011 New York Giants: +5000 entering Week 14
- 2012 Baltimore Ravens: +3000 entering Week 16
- 2017 Philadelphia Eagles: +4000 preseason and +600 entering NFC Championship
- 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +1800 entering Week 6
Underdog Super Bowl winners
Dating back to 2009, 10 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners were actually betting underdogs of even-money or higher going into the Big Game.
That includes each of the last two years with the Chiefs winning outright as underdogs:
- 2023 Kansas City Chiefs (+110)
- 2022 Kansas City Chiefs (+100)
- 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+140)
- 2017 Philadelphia Eagles (+170)
- 2015 Denver Broncos (+140)
- 2014 New England Patriots (+100)
- 2013 Seattle Seahawks (+110)
- 2012 Baltimore Ravens (+175)
- 2011 New York Giants (+130)
- 2009 New Orleans Saints (+180)
Comeback Super Bowl winners
The increased availability of live (in-game) wagering in recent years has opened up more opportunities for plus-money value on the Super Bowl.
That proved true once again in the 2024 Super Bowl, as the Chiefs erased four separate deficits to win their second straight Super Bowl.
It was also the third time in Patrick Mahomes' career that his team erased a double-digit deficit to win the Super Bowl, which has provided plenty of chances for bettors to score big on the Comeback Kid. Two of those came at the expense of the 49ers, who have blown a 10-point lead in each of their last two title appearances.
While live betting hasn’t been around all that long, and thus limits the ability to pin down what these Super Bowl winners were (or might have) priced at when facing their deficits, the odds would have led to a big payout for many of these teams:
- 2023 Kansas City Chiefs: Trailed 10-0 vs. San Francisco 49ers; won 25-22
- 2022 Kansas City Chiefs: Trailed 24-14 vs. Philadelphia Eagles; won 38-35
- 2019 Kansas City Chiefs: Trailed 20-10 vs. San Francisco 49ers; won 31-20
- 2016 New England Patriots: Trailed 28-3 vs. Atlanta Falcons; won 34-28 in OT
- 2014 New England Patriots: Trailed 24-14 vs. Seattle Seahawks; won 28-24
- 2009 New Orleans Saints: Trailed 10-0 vs. Indianapolis Colts; won 31-17
- 1990 New York Giants: Trailed 12-3 vs. Buffalo Bills; won 20-19
- 1987 Washington: Trailed 10-0 vs. Denver Broncos; won 42-10
Super Bowl point spread history
The following table looks at the closing point spreads and eventual ATS results for each of the last 10 Super Bowls.
| Year | Favorite | Point spread | Underdog | ATS result |
| 2024 | 49ers | -2 | Chiefs | KC +2 |
| 2023 | Eagles | -1.5 | Chiefs | KC +1.5 |
| 2022 | Rams | -4.5 | Bengals | CIN +4.5 |
| 2021 | Chiefs | -3 | Buccaneers | TB +3 |
| 2020 | Chiefs | -1.5 | 49ers | KC -1.5 |
| 2019 | Patriots | -2 | Rams | NE -2 |
| 2018 | Patriots | -4.5 | Eagles | PHI +4.5 |
| 2017 | Patriots | -3 | Falcons | NE -3 |
| 2016 | Panthers | -5 | Broncos | DEN +5 |
| 2015 | Seahawks | -1 | Patriots | NE +1 |
Super Bowl O/U history
The following table looks at the closing game totals and eventual O/U results for each of the last 10 Super Bowls.
| Year | Matchup | Game O/U | Final Score | O/U Result |
| 2024 | SF-KC | 46.5 | 25-22 | Over |
| 2023 | PHI-KC | 51.5 | 38-35 | Over |
| 2022 | CIN-LAR | 48.5 | 23-20 | Under |
| 2021 | KC-TB | 55.5 | 31-9 | Under |
| 2020 | KC-SF | 52.5 | 31-20 | Under |
| 2019 | NE-LAR | 55.5 | 13-3 | Under |
| 2018 | NE-PHI | 48.5 | 41-33 | Over |
| 2017 | NE-ATL | 57 | 34-28 (OT) | Over |
| 2016 | DEN-CAR | 43.5 | 24-10 | Under |
| 2015 | NE-SEA | 47 | 28-24 | Over |
How to bet on the Super Bowl
Betting into the Super Bowl market is one of the most popular but challenging things to do successfully as a sports bettor. You have to carefully consider a mix between a team's viability in the regular season and its postseason aptitude.
First, you need to consider a team's ability to make the playoffs, which feature seven teams in each conference with a first-round bye. That last part is key - the top seed in each conference routinely reaches (and wins) the Super Bowl, so betting on an elite regular-season team is a solid way to succeed in this market.
That said, a team's postseason success tends to be highly correlated to quarterback play, coaching, and elite defense.
That's been the formula for decades, and while a top-flight defense is perhaps the least important of those three, there are only so many franchise quarterbacks and championship-level coaches.
That's why the Kansas City Chiefs, led by Mahomes and Andy Reid, have won two straight Super Bowls and three of the last five.
It's also why most Super Bowl winners tend to enter the season with odds shorter than 10/1, as having those key elements are key to surviving through February.
How to read Super Bowl odds
A crucial step to betting on the Super Bowl is understanding how the odds work.
American odds represent how much money you would win on a $100 wager - or, in some cases, how much money you would need to wager to return $100.
Let's refer to an example.
The Chiefs opened with +750 odds to win the 2025 Super Bowl. That means a $100 bet at those odds would return $750 in profit, or a $10 bet would return $75 in profit. You could even bet $1 for a $7.50 return if Kansas City wins its third consecutive championship this February, which has never happened before.
A team like the Houston Texans, which opened at +2500 odds, would return a whopping $2,500 in profit on a $100 bet if they win their first Super Bowl. Of course, those +2500 odds suggest they are much less likely to do so, representing an implied probability of just 3.85%, according to our odds converter.
As we get closer to the Big Game, you may see a team dealing at "negative" odds. For example, the San Francisco 49ers were priced at -125 ahead of Super Bowl 58, meaning you would need to bet $125 to win $100, or $12.50 to win $10.
You'll want to be careful staking too much on bets with minus odds, as what can seem like a "sure thing" is always vulnerable to the chaos and unpredictability of sports.
Super Bowl FAQs
Who is the Super Bowl favorite?
The Kansas City Chiefs are the early 2025 Super Bowl favorites with odds as short as +500. That implies a win probability of 16.67%, according to our odds converter.
Who won the Super Bowl last year?
The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl 58, defeating the San Francisco 49ers in a 25-22 overtime thriller to win their second straight Lombardi Trophy.
When will the 2025 Super Bowl be played?
Super Bowl 59 will be played on Feb. 9, 2025.
Where will the 2025 Super Bowl be played?
The 2025 Super Bowl will take place at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La.
How to watch Super Bowl 2025
FOX will broadcast Super Bowl 59 nationally on Feb. 9, 2025. While kickoff is yet to be announced, it will likely take place around 6:30 p.m. ET.
Who has the most Super Bowl wins?
The New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers have won six Super Bowls, tied for the most. ;
Who has the most Super Bowl appearances?
The New England Patriots have made it to the Super Bowl 11 times, the most of any team.
When was the first Super Bowl?
The first Super Bowl occurred in 1967 after the NFL and AFL merged.
Which team won the first Super Bowl?
The Green Bay Packers won Super Bowl I, defeating the Kansas City Chiefs 35-10.
How many teams haven't won the Super Bowl?
Twelve teams have never won the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl betting odds pages
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Andrew Reid
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