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Saints vs. Packers Prediction Tonight: Monday Night Football Picks & MNF Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 23, 2024 5:14 PM EST • 4 min 11 sec read.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs rushes as we make our Saints vs. Packers prediction ahead of Monday Night Football
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) rushes. Photo by Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images.

The Green Bay Packers look to clinch a place in the NFL Playoffs with a victory tonight over the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football.

Our Saints vs. Packers prediction is in line with the Monday Night Football odds, which list Green Bay as a two-touchdown favorite at home. Kickoff is slated for 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN) from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.

New Orleans will be playing for pride as Spencer Rattler takes over starting duties for the first time since Week 8. The rookie is winless under center for the Saints this season, and our best sportsbooks expect that trend to continue tonight in the frozen tundra.

Best Saints vs. Packers picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Packers -14 () vs. Saints ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Josh Jacobs to score 2+ touchdowns () ⭐⭐⭐

Saints vs. Packers against the spread prediction: Monday Night Football

Packers to cover the spread: -14 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

Jordan Love is playing his best football

Jordan Love threw his 11th interception in Week 11 during a road game against the Bears, which matched his season total from last year. But Love has not thrown an interception in the four games since, and he's tossed seven touchdowns.

The four-game streak without an interception for Love is tied for the second-longest of his career. While most quarterbacks would be impacted by the elements this late in the year, Love thrives in December and January.

Love ranks first among all quarterbacks in QBR (80), second in touchdown-to-interception ratio (16:1), third in completion percentage (71%), and fifth in passing yards per game (249) among quarterbacks who played a minimum of five games during the aforementioned months over the last two seasons

Where will New Orleans generate offense from?

Both Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara have been ruled out for the tonight's contest, two devastating blows for New Orleans. The Saints have scored 19 points or fewer in three straight games. Scoring gets tougher when teams trot out a trio of Kevin Austin Jr., Dante Pettis, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as their top playmakers.

Going against ATS history

Shockingly enough, the last two teams to kick off as 13-point favorites or higher on Monday Night Football have lost outright. Favorites of two touchdowns are 1-7-1 ATS on MNF over the last 13 years.

However, Green Bay has taken care of business against teams with a losing record this season. It is 7-0 straight up and 5-2 ATS against sub-.500 teams, and Matt LaFleur is unbeaten in 10 straight games against teams with a losing record.

Not only does New Orleans currently have its worst winning percentage (.357) since the 2005 season, but I have no confidence in a dome team battling the frigid elements in Green Bay with its playoff hopes evaporated.

FanDuel was the only best sportsbook to move to -14.5 with the news that Kamara would be out, so I am backing this wager at BetMGM before it follows suit with the higher point spread.

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Monday Night Football picks

Saints vs. Packers player prop

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Josh Jacobs to score two or more touchdowns (+215) ⭐⭐⭐

Josh Jacobs is the third-leading rusher in the league. He faces a Saints defense on tonight that ranks 27th in rushing yards per game allowed. New Orleans’ run defense is also ranked 30th by DVOA.

Nine of Jacobs’ 12 rushing touchdowns have come within the last five games, and we are getting great value for him to find the end zone twice in a game where the Packers have a projected team total of 27.5 points.

Jacobs has as steep as -278 anytime touchdown odds (carrying a 73.54% implied probability) at Caesars, so there is great value at DraftKings’ +215 odds for him to score twice. A $10 winning wager would return a profit of $21.50.

Best odds: +215 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 31.75%

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Saints vs. Packers odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Saints vs. Packers odds movement

Green Bay opened up as a 13-point favorite on Dec. 17. The line hasn't seen significant movement since then, despite all of the injury news coming out of New Orleans. The public has backed the Packers in a big way, so much so the line touched -14.5 briefly. But it's come back down to a two-touchdown spread leading up to tonight's kickoff.

70% of tickets at our best sports betting apps are on Green Bay -14. This shouldn't come as too much of a surprise given the considerable absences on the Saints' sideline, including Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and others.

Saints vs. Packers injuries

Monday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Saints vs. Packers
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wis.)
  • How to watch: ABC/ESPN
  • Weather: 25 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph NW
  • Favorite: Packers -14 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”