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Aaron Rodgers vs. Tua Tagovailoa Prop Picks, Predictions Week 16: 3 Player Props for Christmas Day

Rodrigo Villagomez

Last Updated: December 25, 2022 4:05 AM EST • 2 min 26 sec read.

The first game of three on the NFL's Christmas Day features a top quarterback battle between Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, and Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. Read on for our top Rodgers-Tagovailoa prop picks based on the latest odds. 

Christmas Day football begins with a matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Miami Dolphins. This game features the grizzled veteran passer Aaron Rodgers squaring off against the young talent that is Tua Tagovailoa. Both have faced adversity in 2022, yet each remains among the league's premier quarterbacks.

Weather shouldn't play as much of a factor in this game, as the forecast for Miami is much more favorable than elsewhere in the country. That will lead to both signal-callers playing a larger role.

Here are our best Rodgers-Tagovailoa Week 16 player prop picks (odds via , Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Christmas Day parlay picks.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Tua Tagovailoa Prop Picks

  • Rodgers Over Tagovailoa passing yards ML (+135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Tagovailoa longest pass Over 38.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Rodgers Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-104 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Check out our Week 16 NFL picks roundup.

Packers vs. Dolphins Odds

Aaron Rodgers vs. Tua Tagovailoa Prop Predictions

Rodgers Over Tagovailoa passing yards ML (+135) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rodgers began the season out of sync with his young wide receivers, and he's now averaging just 220.9 passing yards per game.

Tagovailoa is actually outperforming his Christmas counterpart, averaging 269.8 passing yards over his 12 contests in 2022. However, he's been frustrated in back-to-back weeks, with a high mark of 234 yards during a Week 15 clash with the Buffalo Bills.

Ultimately, this prop comes down to defense. Tagovailoa is facing a Green Bay squad that's allowing only 172.7 passing yards over the team's last three games. The unit is the league's best over that span. Meanwhile, the Dolphins' defense has surrendered an average of 312.3 passing yards per game over the team's last three matchups, the fourth most during that period.   

Check out our NFL touchdown scorer prop picks.

Tagovailoa longest pass Over 38.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With two of the NFL's most explosive wide receivers at his disposal, Tagovailoa has completed a 39-plus-yard pass in eight of his 12 games in 2022. He's blown past this mark with completions of 67, 60, and 75 yards during his last three outings. 

The Packers' defense has allowed six quarterbacks to find a receiver for at least 39 yards in 2022. Most recently, Justin Fields uncorked a 56-yard bomb to Equanimeous St. Brown in Week 14. In total, nine different receivers have secured a pass that's gone beyond this total against Green Bay.

Rodgers Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-104) ⭐⭐⭐

Rodgers has thrown for at least two touchdowns in three of his last five games. He's averaging 1.67 touchdown completions in 2022. The Packers QB has played in three games versus AFC East opponents, throwing for two touchdowns in two of those contests.

The Dolphins' defense is at the bottom of the league while allowing 1.7 passing touchdowns per game in 2022. That number has surged to 2.3 over the club's last three outings. Miami has given up multiple touchdowns in seven games this campaign, including two of the last three. Josh Allen lit up the Dolphins while tossing four touchdown passes in Week 15.

Check out our best sports-betting sites for Wisconsin.

Aaron Rodgers-Tua Tagovailoa player prop picks made 12/24/2022 at 5:09 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Rodrigo Villagomez
Rod has been a contributing author at Sportsbook Review for the last two years specializing in NASCAR and NFL prop betting. He has been writing and podcasting professionally for almost 20 years, spending the last four years in the sports gambling space. Rod has made several appearances on the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports channel. He’s appeared multiple times on the Fantasy Alarm Show with Howard Bender as well as several times over the last two years during the FSGA Draft Week. He is a published author in the academic world with an article on steroids in baseball featured in the Bedford Reader textbook. Rod loves to find non-traditional bets which has led him to dive into the world of defensive and kicking props in football among others. His love of motorsports has translated into several winning weeks of both NASCAR and Formula 1 bets. Rod is a fan first and aims to provide betting picks that are not only profitable but will provide the maximum entertainment value during the sweat. Ultimately, he tries to remember that watching sports should still be fun and anything else is icing on the cake.