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Ravens vs. Texans Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Today: Christmas Day

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 25, 2024 2:27 PM EST • 4 min 12 sec read.

The Baltimore Ravens have won two in a row after a disappointing loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, and they'll look to continue their quest to win the AFC North as they face the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium (4:30 p.m. ET, Netflix). 

Meanwhile, the Texans have clinched the AFC South entering today's Week 17 contest. The Texans have won seven of 10 games against AFC teams and are 5-2 at home, while the Ravens are 5-3 on the road. 

The Ravens, who are among the Super Bowl odds favorites, enter the contest as the 6.5-point favorite, and our Ravens vs. Texans prediction expects the road team to cover. The below picks are part of our NFL Week 17 predictions.

Ravens vs. Texans updated betting information 

The Ravens opened as 3-point favorites at BetMGM, but have since moved to 6-point favorites. Below, we cover Lamar Jackson's chances of having a big day on the ground while analyzing his chances of throwing an interception in our Ravens vs. Texans player prop picks.

He's one of the most popular prop picks for this Christmas Day contest. 

Ravens vs. Texans predictions: Christmas Day

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Ravens -5 () vs. Texans ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Lamar Jackson Over 45.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ravens vs. Texans ATS prediction: Week 17

Ravens to cover the spread: -5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%

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Baltimore’s ground game continues to dominate

The Ravens outrushed the Steelers 220-117 in Week 16. That marked the 15th straight game in which Baltimore has outrushed an opponent, which is the longest streak in a season all-time.

It was also Baltimore’s 10th game outrushing an opponent by 100 yards, tying the 1949 Eagles for the most such games in NFL history in a single season.

Derrick Henry accounted for 162 of those rushing yards and shattered the 100-yard barrier that he could never eclipse against Pittsburgh until last week. 

Henry had been held to 68 or fewer rushing yards in three of the previous five weeks, so it is encouraging for Baltimore backers that he got going in a big way last week. On another short week, the bruising Henry could be a big offensive weapon.

Houston was hit hard by injuries last week

The Texans lost three key starters in last week’s loss to the Chiefs, and the most high-profile one was the season-ending injury that Tank Dell suffered.

Dell contributed 667 receiving yards and three touchdowns this season. But the Texans' offense looked like a shell of itself after he was carted off with a leg injury, scoring three points on three possessions.

Houston’s secondary was also dealt a big blow when safety Jimmie Ward was carted off with a foot injury, and offensive guard Shaq Mason did not return after suffering a knee injury in the first quarter.

Going against history

Houston is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog following a loss, and C.J. Stroud is 6-3 ATS against teams with a winning record when he is an underdog.

However, throw those trends out the window with these teams playing their third games in 11 days. And the Texans are at an even bigger disadvantage with how many injuries they will have to overcome.

BetMGM remains the only one of our best sports betting sites at which one can back the favorites at -5, so that is where I am making my wager despite paying up slightly in juice. Through the -120 odds, a $10 winning wager would return a payout of $18.33.

NFL Christmas Day expert picks

Ravens vs. Texans best pick

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Lamar Jackson Over 45.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%

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The Texans also allowed Patrick Mahomes with a high ankle sprain to rush for 33 yards. On the season, they're allowing 9.3 yards per play to scrambling quarterbacks, which ranks 26th in the league.

Houston figures to blitz often in this matchup, as it entered last week with the best QBR allowed (35), lowest completion percentage allowed (45), and second-highest interception rate (4.7%) when blitzing. 

But generating such pressure on Jackson also makes it more likely for him to scramble, and he also should benefit from defensive attention that the Texans will pay to Henry coming off his 162-yard day.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering an O/U of 45.5, as DraftKings, BetMGM, and bet365 are on the high end of the market at 48.5.

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Ravens vs. Texans odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Ravens vs. Texans live odds

Ravens vs. Texans opening odds:

  • Ravens: -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Texans: +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Ravens vs. Texans injuries

Ravens vs. Texans game info

  • When: Wednesday, Dec. 25
  • Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET 
  • Where: NRG Stadium (Houston)
  • How to watch: Netflix
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Ravens -5 (-120 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”