Rams vs. Saints Picks, Predictions Week 11: Stafford Back from Concussion Protocol
Last Updated: November 20, 2022 4:51 AM EST • 2 min 29 sec read.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has cleared concussion protocol and will hope to put an end to the team' three-game losing streak. Will Stafford make the difference against the New Orleans Saints? Find out with our Rams-Saints picks.
After clearing the concussion protocol, Stafford is back at practice for the Rams.
Meanwhile, Dennis Allen has stated that Andy Dalton will continue to be the starting quarterback for the Saints. The Saints know they traded their first round pick and can't tank this season, right?
Here are our best picks and predictions for the Week 11 matchup between the Rams and Saints (odds via BetMGM, BetRivers, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 11.
Rams vs. Saints Game Info
Date: Sunday, Nov. 20, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Weather: Dome
Rams vs. Saints Odds
Rams vs. Saints Odds Analysis
There has been considerable line movement this week, with the Saints once trading as 4.5-point home favorites until Stafford cleared concussion protocol. Now, the Saints are favored by 2.5 points.
The total opened at 42.5 and has dropped to 39 over the course of the week. With 54% of the wagers placed on the Under, we could see this total continue to trend downward toward 38.5.
Rams vs. Saints Picks
Rams vs. Saints ATS Pick
Rams +3.5 (-112) ★★★
After winning the Super Bowl last season, the Rams are up against it if they are to make the playoffs. It makes no sense for the Rams to tank since they traded their first-round pick to the Detroit Lions for Stafford.
The Saints are 3-point favorites in my power ratings, which is in line with where the market is trading this game. Finding the Rams at +3.5 or Saints -2.5 is the only way I have a play here, and that is exactly what I found at BetRivers.
As a result of getting the hook on the crucial 3-point spread on the Rams' side, I will be backing the Rams over the Saints. At BetRivers, the Rams +3.5 (-112) spread is significantly more valuable than the Rams +3 (-104) spread you can find at other sportsbooks such as FanDuel.
Rams vs. Saints O/U Pick
Over 39 (-105) ★★★
The defense is the strength of both teams, but neither defense is performing well at this point of the season. According to Football Outsiders, the Rams and Saints rank 15th and 16th in defensive DVOA, respectively, which places them in the middle of the league.
While neither offense has been setting the world on fire of late, I think this total has dipped too low to compensate for a poor public perception. I don't like Dalton, either, but maybe he can throw some touchdowns to the Rams like he did to the Arizona Cardinals.
I'm playing the Over because I think this total should trade closer to 41. FanDuel offers an Over 38.5 (-114) total, but just because the number is a half point lower does not mean it is the best number to bet on. At DraftKings, the Over 39 has a juice of -105, which represents the best value.
Rams vs. Saints Prop Pick
Olave Over 52.5 receiving yards (-110) ★★★
Do not let the matchup with Jalen Ramsey deter you from betting on an Over with Saints rookie wide receiver Chris Olave. This season, Olave has been one of Dalton's favorite weapons, and he is on pace for over 1,000 yards receiving.
Based on Olave's projected total of 64 receiving yards, the Over on the total of 52.5 should trade at -130 instead of -110. It would appear that Caesars Sportsbook is offering this prop at the correct price, with the Over at -132. But that is why we will be taking advantage of the price at BetMGM, where the Over is only -110.
Where to Bet on Rams-Saints Picks
Rams-Saints picks made 11/17/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET
Jon Metler
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