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Raiders vs. Chiefs Prediction, Picks & Best Bets Today: Black Friday

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 29, 2024 12:02 PM EST • 4 min 38 sec read.

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers interact after the game at Allegiant Stadium as we look at our Raiders vs. Chiefs prediction.
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers interact after the game at Allegiant Stadium. Photo by Kirby Lee/Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders are set for a divisional clash on Black Friday beginning at 3 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium (Prime Video).

  • The Raiders are struggling mightily after losing seven straight games
  • The Chiefs have often been winning in nail-biting fashion, but they're still off to the team's fourth 10-1 start in franchise history
  • Kansas City boasts an unblemished 8-0 record in games decided by seven or fewer points

As part of our Week 13 NFL predictions, I still envision a dominant Chiefs win even though the team hasn't been racking up victories in convincing fashion recently.

Gabe Henderson made our Raiders vs. Chiefs early picks while examining the total for this affair, and he thinks the two teams can combine to clear a relatively low number.

Raiders vs. Chiefs predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Chiefs -12 () vs. Raiders ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Patrick Mahomes 3+ passing touchdowns () ⭐⭐⭐

Raiders vs. Chiefs ATS prediction: Week 13

Chiefs to cover the spread: -12 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Raiders are historically bad

It seems unconventional to back a team to cover a 12-point spread with four stars of confidence when it has only one win by more than 10 points on the season. 

However, despite Kansas City being the first team to win eight of its first 11 games by seven or fewer points, Las Vegas has given plenty of reason to believe it will not stay within this number.

The Raiders’ 2-9 start is their worst since 2018. Las Vegas is also the third team in NFL history to trail by double digits in each of its first 11 games of a season, joining the 1972 Patriots and 1986 Colts.

However, Brock Bowers has been a bright spot, and Brenden Schaeffer is backing him as part of his Raiders vs. Chiefs parlay picks.

Patrick Mahomes is 11-2 in his career against the Raiders, and one of those losses was at home (20-14) in Week 16 of last year. But he has won seven of those 13 career games by 13 or more points.

Chiefs defense in for a bounce-back game

The Chiefs defense was as big a reason as any that the team started 7-0. 

In that span, Kansas City ranked top-five in Defensive Efficiency and Total QBR, and 12th in third-down conversion defense. However, in the last four games, the Chiefs are 29th in Defensive Efficiency, 26th in Total QBR, and are bottom-three in third-down defense.

Kansas City’s defense is due to fix its woes against a Raiders offense that ranks dead-last in the league in EPA/play.

Quarterback Aidan O’Connell is expected to start after being on IR since Week 7 with a thumb injury. Had Gardner Minshew not suffered a season-ending broken collarbone last week, the Raiders would likely not be rushing O’Connell back into game action. 

On a short week with limited practice time, O’Connell does not inspire much confidence in leading the offense, especially if his lingering thumb issue limits him in any way.

The Chiefs needed a last-second field goal to beat the Panthers as double-digit favorites last week, which is likely why the point spread for this matchup is down from an opening number of -13 at several sites with the best sportsbook promos.

I am expecting Kansas City to snap its drought of five consecutive games without a cover.

Through BetMGM’s -110 odds, a winning $10 wager would pay out $19.09.

Raiders vs. Chiefs best bet

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Patrick Mahomes to throw for three or more touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +280 via bet365 | Implied probability: 26.32%

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Mahomes took five sacks and was pressured 18 times, both season-highs, last week against the Panthers. But he still threw for 269 yards (his second-highest total in the last six games) and three touchdowns for the third time in the previous four.

Mahomes faces a Raiders defense that has allowed 240-plus passing yards in four straight games. He has also gotten contributions from unheralded players like tight end Noah Gray, who has four receiving touchdowns in the last two games. 

That bodes well for further success for him and Travis Kelce, as Las Vegas has allowed the most production via receptions, yards, and touchdowns per game to tight ends over the last four weeks.

The Over of 1.5 passing touchdowns for Mahomes was juiced as high as -156 (carrying a 60.94% implied probability) at FanDuel. Thus, I am opting for the better value on his alternate touchdown passes total.

The +280 odds offered at bet365 trump the +240 odds for the same wager at FanDuel and the +265 price at DraftKings.

Phil Wood's expecting a big day for Mahomes' tight ends with his Raiders vs. Chiefs player prop bets.

Raiders vs. Chiefs odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Raiders vs. Chiefs live odds

Raiders vs. Chiefs opening odds:

  • Raiders +13 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Chiefs -13 (-110 via BetMGM)

Raiders vs. Chiefs odds movement

The spread at most of our best sports betting sites has moved a little in favor of the Chiefs since opening at -12, and it now commonly sits -13 or -13.5.

The total has also shifted, and the amount of that move depends on where you're looking. For example, at bet365 it's gone from 43.5 to 41.5, and at Caesars the line has plunged from 46.5 to 41.5.

Raiders vs. Chiefs game info

  • When: Friday, Nov. 29
  • Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Weather: 38 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph NW
  • Favorite: Chiefs -12 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”