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NFL Predictions, Best Bets & Odds Week 6

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 12, 2024 12:00 PM EDT • 5 min 21 sec read.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed celebrates a long gain with teammate running back Emanuel Wilson as we offer our NFL best bets for Week 6.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed celebrates a long gain with teammate running back Emanuel Wilson. Photo by Robert Hanashiro via Imagn Images

San Francisco joined Seattle atop the NFC West, and there's another divisional matchup with first place on the line in the 14-game Week 6 NFL slate.

  • Home teams do not appear safe in Week 6, as there are home underdogs in 10 of the 14 games
  • Rookie quarterbacks are 10-5 thus far, and two new rookies (Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler) get a chance to add to that win total in their first starts
  • The two remaining unbeaten teams, Super Bowl odds favorite Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings, are on byes this week

Our NFL predictions and best bets for Week 6 fade two rookie quarterbacks, one with backing the Under and one favoring their opponent as part of a moneyline parlay.

Our Best NFL bets are part of the Week 6 predictions. 

Best NFL bets for Week 6

NFL odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

  • Jayden Reed anytime touchdown scorer () vs. Cardinals  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Jalen Tolbert Over 3.5 receptions () vs. Lions  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Buccaneers-Saints Under 41.5 () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Ravens/Falcons moneyline parlay () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Week 6 NFL odds & schedule

(Odds via BetMGM)

  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) vs. Chicago Bears (-1.5), Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (+3), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Arizona Cardinals (+5) vs. Green Bay Packers (-5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (-2.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Cleveland Browns (+9.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Houston Texans (-7) vs. New England Patriots (+7), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Washington Commanders (+6.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
  • Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) vs. Denver Broncos (+2.5), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+3), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Atlanta Falcons (-6) vs. Carolina Panthers (+6), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (+3), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) vs. New York Giants (+3.5), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Buffalo Bills (-2.5) vs. New York Jets (+2.5), Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET

NFL player props for Week 6

NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jayden Reed anytime touchdown scorer (+109) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed is the sixth player with 400-plus receiving yards and 100 or more rushing yards through five games of a season.

His rushing ability, along with his elite route-running, make his anytime touchdown odds more enticing than his overall receiving yards props, especially at plus-money.

The Cardinals have allowed three top-20 wide receivers in terms of fantasy points over the last three weeks, and Green Bay’s 10 passing touchdowns are the fourth-most in the league, which is impressive considering the run-heavy Malik Willis made two starts.

Caesars is the only of our best sports betting sites offering plus-money odds for him to find the end zone, and his implied probability to score a touchdown is as high as 55.56% based on BetMGM’s and FanDuel’s -125 odds. Through Caesars’ +109 odds, a $10 winning wager would return $10.90 in profits.

Best odds: +109 via Caesars | Implied probability: 47.85%

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Jalen Tolbert Over 3.5 receptions (-128) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

CeeDee Lamb is always the focal point of the Cowboys' passing offense, especially this week, considering he torched the Lions' secondary for 13 receptions on 17 targets for 227 yards and a touchdown in a December meeting last year.

Dan Campbell’s and Co. will likely spend the majority of the week figuring out how to slow Lamb down, which benefits Jalen Tolbert, whose 20 catches and 29 targets rank second among the team’s wide receivers.

Tolbert has scored 13 or more fantasy points in three of the last four games and has had 10-plus targets, 80 or more yards, and a touchdown twice in that span.

The Lions have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and have allowed a top-eight fantasy quarterback in two of the last three games.

Dak Prescott is averaging the second-most passing yards per game and has multiple passing touchdowns in three straight, so there will be plenty of balls to go around even if Lamb remains a target-hog in this matchup.

The Over of 3.5 receptions is juiced as high as -150 at BetMGM, so I am taking advantage of the best odds and the 22-cent difference at FanDuel.

Best odds: -128 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.14%

NFL game predictions for Week 6

Buccaneers-Saints Under 41.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Given its massive scheduling edge, I was ready to back Tampa Bay as a moneyline underdog based on the lookahead line.

But Derek Carr’s injury moved the line too much in the Buccaneers’ favor, so the better value is the Under given that rookie Spencer Rattler is making his first start for the Saints.

The Buccaneers have averaged 24.3 points per game in their last three games at the Superdome, but this Saints defense has allowed one passing touchdown and has picked off seven passes while allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

And now Baker Mayfield’s favorite target, Mike Evans, is likely to be neutralized by one of the league’s best cover cornerbacks, Marshon Lattimore.

The Buccaneers pass defense is a concern, as Kirk Cousins’ 371 passing yards between the numbers against them last week were the third-most in a single game since 2006.

But those concerns are alleviated with Rattler under center, and I expect Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to use a blitz-happy attack to make the rookie uncomfortable.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

 Ravens/Falcons moneyline parlay(-116) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

No rookie quarterback has been more explosive and consistent this season than Jayden Daniels.

But he is likely to be relegated to the sidelines for much of this game, as the Ravens are the first team in NFL history to out-rush each of their first five opponents by 100 or more yards.

Lamar Jackson is also 6-0 in his career against rookie quarterbacks, and he should have a field day against a Commanders' defense that has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league.

I am adding the Falcons over the Panthers as the second leg of this parlay, as Atlanta is off extended rest, having played on Thursday night.

Cousins is coming off a 509-yard passing day last week and should be licking his chops to face a Panthers defense that ranks 24th against the pass, 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.

In addition, four different wide receivers and three different quarterbacks have had top-12 weekly finishes against the Panthers. Those are big reasons why Carolina has allowed its most points ever through five games of a season in franchise history (165) and has more double-digit losses (four) than any team in the league.

bet365 has the best individual moneylines for the Ravens (-290) and Falcons (-260), naturally making it our go-to shop for this two-leg parlay that would pay out $18.62 on a winning $10 wager.

Best odds: -116 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.70%

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”