NFL Week 18 Player Prop Picks: Best Odds & Props This Week

NFL bettors have more research to do for Week 18 compared to the average week, as several teams will rest a number of starters knowing that the playoffs begin next week. We discussed as much in our NFL Week 18 motivation guide.

• Josh Allen will be active in an effort to extend his consecutive games streak, but will rest after limited action
• Saquon Barkley is resting in Week 18 despite needing just 101 rushing yards to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season record
• Joe Burrow looks to extend the NFL record of most consecutive games with 250-plus passing yards and at least three passing touchdowns

Our NFL Week 18 player prop picks makes two plays at plus-money odds, and backs a Buccaneers receiver who can tie a long-standing NFL receiving record. We offer all of these as part of our NFL Week 18 predictions.

NFL player prop picks for Week 18

NFL odds subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Bijan Robinson prop pick: Robinson to score 2+ touchdowns () vs. Panthers ⭐⭐⭐
• Mike Evans prop pick: Over 96.5 receiving yards () vs. Saints ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Malik Nabers prop pick: Over 6.5 receptions () at Eagles ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Sam Darnold prop pick: Over 23.5 completions () at Lions ⭐⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Friday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Best NFL player props this week

Bijan Robinson to score two-plus touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +165 via Caesars | Implied probability: 37.74%

Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has scored multiple touchdowns four times this season, but two of those instances have come within the last two weeks.

Robinson now gets arguably the best possible matchup this week facing a Panthers defense that is the first to allow 200-plus rushing yards in five straight games since the 1981 Patriots.

Atlanta needs to win to have any hopes of capturing the NFC South, and it should employ another run-heavy approach after Michael Penix Jr. was off-target on 23% of his passes last week. 

Given that Robinson’s anytime touchdown odds carry a 74.62% implied probability (at -294 odds), it is not much of a stretch to expect him to find the end zone twice.

Mike Evans Over 96.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

Mike Evans needs 85 receiving yards to finish with 1,000 yards receiving for the 11th straight year, which would tie Jerry Rice’s NFL record.

That is something I expect the Buccaneers coaching staff to be aware of, and the team will likely do right by Evans to force-feed him with targets. 

Tampa Bay’s offense has been on fire of late, coming off its third game with 500-plus total yards. That is the most of any team in the NFL this season, and the second-most in franchise history.

Evans should stay hot against a Saints defense that was in the bottom five in yards allowed per target to perimeter wide receivers from Weeks 11-16.

This is not the best number out there, as BetMGM’s O/U is 93.5. But BetMGM also has the Over juiced to -150, so I am willing to get behind a slightly higher total for the chance at a much better payout.

Malik Nabers Over 6.5 receptions ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 47.62%

Malik Nabers’ 104 receptions this season are the third-most ever by a rookie, and his 1,140 receiving yards are the second-most by a Giants rookie.

Nabers has seen double-digit targets in four of the last five weeks, and hauled in seven or more catches in three straight (and four of the previous five).

If Nabers is covered by Quinyon Mitchell, look for the Giants to take advantage of that matchup. 

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, when Quinyon Mitchell was the nearest defender last week, he was targeted nine times against Dallas (tied for a season-high). Mitchell has also allowed three touchdowns in the last six games after zero through the first 10.

New York is not going quietly into the offseason, as last week Drew Lock became the first player this season with four passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown. 

That makes this play on Nabers’ reception total worth the plus-money odds, which are as low as +105 at DraftKings.

Sam Darnold Over 23.5 completions ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.46%

The Vikings-Lions O/U is 57 points, which would be the highest total in an NFL game over the last three years. And these two teams have cashed the Over in each of their last six meetings, which means another track meet is likely to break out.

Darnold became the fourth quarterback in NFL history with 35-plus touchdown passes in his first season with a team. 

While I would not put anyone off backing his alternate passing touchdowns total, the -205 juice (at FanDuel) for him to throw two or more touchdowns is much too steep.

Instead, I will back Darnold to complete 24 or more passes, which he has done twice in the last three weeks. 

Darnold completed only 22 passes in the prior meeting with Detroit, but that was on an efficient 27 pass attempts. It was also just his sixth start with the team, and was against a much healthier Lions defense than what he will face this week.

The Over is juiced as high as -125 (carrying a 55.56% implied probability) at bet365, so we are getting a great price by making this wager at FanDuel.

Week 18 expert picks

• NFL Week 18 player prop picks
• NFL Week 18 best bets
• Anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 18
• Week 18 motivation guide
• NFL contract incentives and statistical milestones
• NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds
• NFL playoff odds for Wild Card Weekend
• NFL upset picks
• NFL picks against the spread

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