NFL Week 15 Player Prop Picks: Best Odds & Props This Week

Sure, Week 15's Thursday Night Football game was perhaps the worst in history, but we still have 15 games remaining throughout the weekend.

Our Week 15 NFL player prop picks focus on a star receiver continuing his recent stretch of strong play during what's been a down year.

Additionally, we're targeting a running back who's been handed the keys to the kingdom and made the most of the opportunity, as he looks for his third straight 100-yard rushing effort.

Then, as part of our NFL Week 15 predictions, we'll give you one of our favorite touchdown bets of the week, and we're fading one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

NFL player prop picks for Week 15

NFL odds subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Tyreek Hill prop pick: Over 68.5 receiving yards () at Texans ⭐⭐⭐
• Rico Dowdle prop pick: Over 83.5 rushing yards () at Panthers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Rhamondre Stevenson prop pick: Anytime touchdown scorer () at Cardinals ⭐⭐⭐
• Jalen Hurts prop pick: Under 39.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) vs. Steelers ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Friday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Best NFL player props this week

Tyreek Hill Over 68.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Miami has won three straight home games while scoring 30-plus points in each, and I like its offense to continue to have success indoors at NRG Stadium.

Houston’s defense has allowed eight passing touchdowns with at least 20 air yards this season, tied for the most in the league. By comparison, the Texans allowed eight such touchdowns all of last season. 

In addition, Houston has allowed 15 touchdowns on pass and rush plays of at least 20 yards, the most in the NFL. There is arguably no better big-play wide receiver in the league than Tyreek Hill, so he could come close to or exceed this projected total with one catch.

Hill has gone Over this projected total in consecutive games. Meanwhile, Mike McDaniel should continue to let Tua Tagovailoa air it out, as he became the first Dolphins quarterback ever with two or more touchdown passes and zero interceptions in four straight games.

The fact that this O/U dipped from 73.5 to 68.5 this week gave me a little more caution and had me backing this play with three stars of confidence instead of four. But there is still value in this number at BetMGM, as Hill’s O/U is as high as 71.5 at FanDuel.

Rico Dowdle Over 83.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

Over the last five weeks, the Panthers have allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per attempt in the league (6.5). However, their run defense remains vulnerable, allowing 160-plus rushing yards in five consecutive games for the first time in franchise history.

Rico Dowdle should take advantage of that poor defense, as he has 18 or more touches in three straight games. Dowdle has played 64% of the snaps since Week 9 and has 329 rushing yards over the last three games.

With Carolina allowing the most rushing yards in the NFL, I would play this number to 86.5, which is conveniently what FanDuel’s O/U is set at. 

Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 46.51%

The last time we saw New England in action prior to its bye last week, it suffered its first loss at home with 200 or more rushing yards in a game since 1983.

The Patriots face a Cardinals defense that just allowed Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet to total 193 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Charbonnet also had 91 rush yards after contact, the most by a player this season. 

Stevenson has run the ball 18-plus times in three of the last four weeks. But I am not backing his Over of 48.5 rushing yards, considering he conceded 12 carries to Antonio Gibson and Drake Maye, who combined to average 10.1 yards per rush.

Stevenson should still get the bulk of the goal-line work, and his +115 odds at Caesars would net $11.50 in profits on a $10 winning wager. That is better value than the +105 and +110 odds at DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively.

Jalen Hurts Under 39.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

The Eagles rank top two in the league in rushing yards per game, 10-yard rushes, and yards before contact per rush. 

But Philadelphia should meet its match with a Steelers defense that ranks fourth in rush yards allowed per game, fifth in 10-yard rushes, and eighth in yards allowed before contact.

Pittsburgh has plenty of practice preparing for mobile quarterbacks with Lamar Jackson in its own division, and it held him to 46 rushing yards in Week 11 (tied for his seventh-highest total of the season).

The Eagles are the only team in the league with more rushing yards than passing yards, but I expect Mike Tomlin to limit Hurts’ rushing yardage to “tush pushes” and will make him air it out more than he would like.

The best price and number for this wager is at bet365. BetMGM charges slightly extra -120 juice to back the Under at the same number, while the O/U is as low as 37.5 at FanDuel, with a -114 price attached to the Under.

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