NFL Picks Against the Spread for Every Week 18 Game

As we enter the final week of the NFL regular season, we have our eyes locked onto a few key matchups with our NFL picks against the spread for Week 18.

As we broke down in our NFL Week 18 odds, most teams have nothing to play for. Some have everything to play for, including a pair of Super Bowl odds contenders who headline our NFL ATS predictions in the final game of the regular season on Sunday Night Football.

NFL ATS picks Week 18: Every game

NFL odds via BetMGM and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My favorite ATS picks this week

NFL picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Bengals (-1.5) at Steelers

It's easy to make jokes at the Bengals' expense when their coaching staff finds creative new ways to steal defeat from the jaws of victory. But Cincinnati is one of the few teams this week with everything on the line, and it's played with a vengeance over the back half of the season as it tries to keep its season alive.

QB Joe Burrow, who is quietly still a threat by the NFL MVP odds, has been a man possessed down the stretch - he's thrown for 27 touchdowns to five interceptions in his last eight starts, and he's tossed at least three scores in each of those eight games.

That includes a heroic effort against the Steelers in a 44-38 loss in Week 13. The Bengals' defense has looked (mildly) improved since then, and I'm frankly surprised this line isn't more heavily tilted in their favor. Even with Mike Tomlin cooking up ways to eliminate his division rival, I still like Cincy's chances to finish the job and await Sunday's results.

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

Chiefs (+10) at Broncos

After a 15-1 start to clinch the AFC's No. 1 seed, the Chiefs are already looking ahead to the postseason and will likely rest key starters in this Week 18 contest. That's why this line has ballooned in favor of the Broncos, who still need a win to make the playoffs.

Yet head coach Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo - two of the best play-callers in the game - aren't taking the day off for Kansas City, nor are the players suiting up for Kansas City with a chance to tie the NFL record for wins in a regular season (16).

One of the most underappreciated and undervalued factors in NFL betting is pride, and I just don't see the Chiefs' remaining players laying down against a division rival with the chance to knock Denver out of the playoffs. This is also a gigantic ;spot for rookie QB Bo Nix against a team that already scouted him and mostly held him in check in Week 10.

Yes, I know the starters aren't playing in the rematch, but I'd be surprised if the Broncos win this one by double digits - and I wouldn't be shocked if they blow it altogether.

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

Vikings (+2.5) at Lions

The Lions have been the best team in the NFC (and perhaps the entire league) for the majority of the 2024 season. But they haven't quite been the same unit over the last few weeks as injuries take their toll on both sides of the ball, and we saw the effects defensively in a shootout win in San Francisco on Monday Night Football.

Compare that to the Vikings, who are hitting their stride with nine straight wins since they dropped two straight in late October. One of those losses came by two points against Detroit, which was at the peak of its powers before the medical bills came due.

The most dangerous unit on the field Sunday might be this Minnesota offense with the way that QB Sam Darnold has been slinging it across the yard - he's combined for 18 touchdowns and two interceptions in his last seven starts to help fuel this unbeaten run, even while playing some of the toughest defenses in football.

If he keeps it up against this depleted Detroit defense, the Vikings will cash their Sunday Night Football odds outright and steal the NFC North crown on their way out of Ford Field.

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

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