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Patriots vs. Jets Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for TNF Week 3

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 17, 2024 10:00 AM EDT • 3 min 11 sec read.

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson runs with the ball as we look at our Patriots vs. Jets TNF early leans.
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson runs with the ball against the Seattle Seahawks. Photo by: Brian Fluharty/Imagn Images.

Two AFC East rivals meet on Thursday Night Football for the second consecutive week as the New York Jets host the New England Patriots. 

The matchup's winner will be 2-1, which both teams’ fan bases would have likely signed up for before the season started.

New York is a touchdown favorite in this matchup, but my Patriots vs. Jets early leans make a case for the underdog to cover. The Jets' schedule is working against them, as this is their third game in 11 days, and each of the first two has been on the road.

My early Patriots vs. Jets prediction: Patriots +7

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Patriots +7

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Early forecasts call for rain for this Thursday Night Football clash, and sloppy weather would favor the Patriots. For the first time since 1974, New England has run for 170 or more yards in consecutive games to start a season.

Veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett has done a solid job of taking care of the football, with zero interceptions. The team has not committed a turnover through two games after going just one game without one all of last season.

This line has already bounced back and forth between +6.5 and +7 at most of the best sports betting sites, so Patriots backers should have already pounced on any +7s they could find before the line goes back down to +6.5.

Update: The line did drop to 6.5 points, but I'm still confident in New England with my Patriots vs. Jets prediction.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Patriots vs. Jets live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 3 game.

Moneyline

  • Jets best odds: | Implied probability: 73.33%
  • Patriots best odds: | Implied probability: 29.41%

There is a wide gap in New York’s moneyline odds between BetMGM on the low end of the market (-275) and Caesars’ -303 odds. The big price is somewhat surprising given that New England is 15-1 in the last 16 head-to-head meetings, with eight straight road wins in the series.

But bettors are smart to realize that all of that dominance was under Bill Belichick. They will likely move the lineup before kickoff as they believe the Jets will look for revenge after being dominated by their AFC East rival for much of this century. 

Spread

  • Jets best odds:
  • Patriots best odds:

At some point between late Sunday afternoon and early Monday morning, every best sports betting app spent time at either -6.5 or -7. Thus, given how quickly Patriots backers bet the line down under the key number when it reached seven, there will likely never be enough betting momentum to push the line to +7.5. A touchdown spread is likely the ceiling for this line before kickoff.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds:
  • Under best odds:

The Jets are coming off their fourth game in which they have scored 24 or more points since the start of last season, and with Aaron Rodgers under center, there will always be more optimism for their offense compared to what a mess their quarterback situation was last year.

However, sharp bettors typically make their wagers on totals based on weather, and if the forecasts for Thursday night continue to get worse, this line will likely plummet.

How to watch Patriots vs. Jets

  • When: Thursday, Sept. 19
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Weather: 68 degrees, 70% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph NE
  • Favorite: Jets -7 ()

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”