Patrick Mahomes SNF Player Prop Picks: Touchdown Prediction & Odds vs. Chargers

Patrick Mahomes looks to continue his dominance of AFC West opponents when he leads the Kansas City Chiefs against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football. My Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction is calling for a tight game.

• Mahomes is 9-2 in his career against the Chargers
• Mahomes is currently fifth in the NFL MVP odds
• The Chiefs beat the Chargers 17-10 in Los Angeles in Week 4

Our Sunday Night Football odds have the Chiefs as 4-point favorites in a game with an O/U of 43 points, and we use that information to guide our Patrick Mahomes SNF player prop picks.

Patrick Mahomes prop predictions for Sunday Night Football

NFL odds as of Sunday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdowns () ⭐⭐⭐
• Patrick Mahomes Under 35.5 passing attempts () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Patrick Mahomes longest pass completion Under 35.5 yards (-115 via BeMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Patrick Mahomes player prop picks

NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 49.50%

Mahomes has been airing it out of late, with 37 or more pass attempts in five of the last six games. In that span, he has 13 of his 19 touchdown passes on the season, with multiple touchdown passes in four of those games.

Mahomes has also been excellent on third down this year. He has completed a league-best 57% of his passes for first downs on third down, and his 10 passing touchdowns on third down are tied for the best in the league.

Mahomes has 29 passing touchdowns against seven interceptions in 11 career starts against the Chargers. 

While Jim Harbaugh has improved the Chargers defense, it is not every week where one can back Mahomes at plus-money odds to throw multiple touchdowns. FanDuel is the only one of our NFL prop betting sites offering better than +100 odds to back this wager, as others like bet365 have the Over juiced to -115.

Patrick Mahomes Under 35.5 passing attempts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

Mahomes has been airing it out of late as a necessity, as the Chiefs' running game, led by Kareem Hunt, was not producing.

Now that Isiah Pacheco is back and healthy, I expect more of a balance in the Chiefs offense. 

Pacheco has run for either 100 yards or a touchdown in each of his two starts against Los Angeles. The Chargers defense has also allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and the fifth-highest rate of explosive runs since Week 9.

Mahomes’ 29 pass attempts in the first meeting against the Chargers were his fourth-lowest of the season. 

With Los Angeles being more vulnerable against the run than the pass lately (it has allowed the fourth-lowest passer rating since Week 8), this sets up for a less pass-heavy attack from Mahomes. 

BetMGM and DraftKings are the only of our best NFL betting sites offering standard -110 juice to back this Under, and FanDuel’s O/U is lower at 34.5.

Patrick Mahomes longest pass completion Under 35.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Mahomes has not had a pass completion of 36 yards or longer in seven consecutive games, though the one caveat is that he has had at least one 35-yard completion in three of the last five.

However, this is a four-star play that Mahomes will have an eighth consecutive game staying under this projected total, as the Chargers rank in the top five in fewest passing yards per attempt allowed since Week 8. 

FanDuel is again slightly lower with an O/U of 34.5, so the best price and number is at BetMGM.

Patrick Mahomes player prop odds

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