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Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props, Odds Week 4: Predictions for Chiefs vs. Jets

Rodrigo Villagomez

Last Updated: October 1, 2023 4:17 PM EDT • 3 min 40 sec read.

Patrick Mahomes will make his debut in New York on Sunday Night Football, and we're providing our top player prop predictions for Mahomes, supported by the best NFL odds.

Reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes, the quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, leads his 2-1 team against the struggling New York Jets offense led by second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. This game could be the final straw for Wilson as the Jets' quarterback if they aren't able to generate any offense in this primetime matchup.

After a rocky start to the season, Mahomes has returned to form, and the Chiefs now boast a winning record above .500. Despite the changing cast of characters at wide receiver around him on offense, Mahomes remains consistent.

Mahomes will aim to impress millions of his newest fans in primetime by lighting up the Meadowlands, as we're sure to see record viewership thanks to Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift.

Here are our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions, which accompanies our Travis Kelce player props and Chiefs vs. Jets predictions (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for Week 4

  • Patrick Mahomes Over 35.5 pass attempts() ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Patrick Mahomes longest completion Under 37.5 () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Patrick Mahomes Over 295.5 pass+rush yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Patrick Mahomes player props

Patrick Mahomes Over 35.5 pass attempts () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game over his first three matchups. Also, he's eclipsed this mark in two out of those three. As a team, just over 59% of K.C.'s offensive game relies on its QB’s arm. Last season, the Chiefs' signal caller was Under this number in eight outings. However, he hit exactly 35 in three of them.

The Jets allowed an average of 36 passing attempts in their first three contests. Two of their opposing QBs exceeded this total. Teams throw the ball against New York on 51% of their offensive plays.   

also offers this prop at the same price. Meanwhile, ran this line up to -130 for the Over. Additionally, has the line at 36.5 and lowered the juice to -108 for Mahomes to complete 37 passes.

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Patrick Mahomes longest completion Under 37.5 () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The deep ball is lacking for the Chiefs as Mahomes averaged just 10.9 yards per completion so far this season. His longest completion was a roughly 20-yard pass that wide receiver Skyy Moore turned into a 54-yard touchdown. Overall, he averages just 7.1 yards per attempt in 2023. In his career, that average improves by only a yard to 8.06 yards per attempt. 

Despite their deep threats, neither Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen nor Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott hit their receivers deep enough to eclipse this total. The only pass catcher to break out for more than 38 yards against the Jets was New England Patriots tight end Pharaoh Brown. Patriots signal caller Mac Jones dumped a medium-ranged pass to Brown behind the defense, resulting in a long TD.

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Patrick Mahomes Over 295.5 pass+rush yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes soared past this number in his last two games, gaining 335 combined yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars, then 300 total yards versus the Chicago Bears. Last season, the Chiefs’ QB averaged 308.8 passing yards and 21.1 rushing yards per game. In his only career matchup against the Jets, Mahomes threw for 416 yards.

The Jets did well against opposing QBs so far this season, giving up only 222 passing YPG. Additionally, they've allowed 129.3 rushing YPG to opposing quarterbacks. 

You can find this line a yard lower at DraftKings, but you'll pay -115 for that yard. BetMGM's line is also at 295.5, but offered at -115 on either side. FanDuel dips even lower to 293.5 at -114 on both sides.

Patick Mahomes player prop picks made Saturday, 9/30/23 at 1 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Rodrigo Villagomez
Rod has been a contributing author at Sportsbook Review for the last two years specializing in NASCAR and NFL prop betting. He has been writing and podcasting professionally for almost 20 years, spending the last four years in the sports gambling space. Rod has made several appearances on the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports channel. He’s appeared multiple times on the Fantasy Alarm Show with Howard Bender as well as several times over the last two years during the FSGA Draft Week. He is a published author in the academic world with an article on steroids in baseball featured in the Bedford Reader textbook. Rod loves to find non-traditional bets which has led him to dive into the world of defensive and kicking props in football among others. His love of motorsports has translated into several winning weeks of both NASCAR and Formula 1 bets. Rod is a fan first and aims to provide betting picks that are not only profitable but will provide the maximum entertainment value during the sweat. Ultimately, he tries to remember that watching sports should still be fun and anything else is icing on the cake.