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Patrick Mahomes MNF Player Prop Bets vs. Saints

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: October 7, 2024 1:33 PM EDT • 3 min 30 sec read.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes calls a play against the Atlanta Falcons.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes calls a play against the Atlanta Falcons. Photo by Dale Zanine via Imagn Images.

The Kansas City Chiefs may be 4-0, but it's not because Patrick Mahomes has been especially prolific this season - despite what the NFL MVP odds would have you believe. Will he bounce back from multiple underwhelming performances on Monday night against the New Orleans Saints, or will the loss of Rashee Rice be too big for this offense?

The most interesting part of Mahomes' status as the favorite by the NFL MVP odds is that he hasn't been bad relative to his usual standards; he's been bad. Full stop.

Mahomes enters this contest tied for the second-most interceptions, and he ranks in the bottom half of quarterbacks in passer rating and QBR. His 7.5 yards per attempt aren't especially impressive, either.

And now, he plays his first full game (though it's really his second for all intents and purposes) this season without top target Rashee Rice. Could that mean bigger things for our Travis Kelce player props?

Our Monday Night Football odds still have Mahomes' Super Bowl odds front-runners as 5.5-point favorites against the Saints. However, as we discussed in our Saints vs. Chiefs prediction, these teams' records don't accurately represent how good each one is. 

We've also dug into some Saints vs. Chiefs MNF prop bets.

Patrick Mahomes prop predictions for Monday Night Football

  • Patrick Mahomes Under 22.5 passing completions () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Patrick Mahomes + Derek Carr Over 446.5 combined passing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Patrick Mahomes player props

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Patrick Mahomes Under 22.5 passing completions (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes is projected for 22 pass completions during Monday Night Football, giving us roughly 8% +EV thanks to these market-best even-money odds from BetMGM.

Even without the services of top running back Isiah Pacheco for the last two weeks, Mahomes has topped this betting line just once this season. That came while attempting a season-high 39 passes against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3.

The Saints are 5.5-point home favorites on Monday, so it's unlikely he'll need to pass enough to complete at least 23 passes while operating at a 68.6% rate of efficiency this season.

Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50%

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Patrick Mahomes + Derek Carr Over 446.5 combined passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes' and Carr's individual projections add up to 450 combined passing yards. We have three yards to spare for them to hit this Over.

Mahomes has contributed at least half this total in two of four games. But we can expect Carr to do the heavy lifting in the yardage department with his Saints likely to be playing from behind for much of the game.

Continued question marks in the Chiefs' backfield should also help boost Mahomes' final yardage total.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

ESPN BET offers the market-best odds on this prop with our other NFL prop betting sites all around -130 for this Under.

Our Esten McLaren expects Mahomes' lone touchdown pass to go to JuJu Smith-Schuster with his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for MNF.

A low-scoring game with the Chiefs lined as 5.5-point betting favorites should result in a run-heavy game script, especially against a Saints defense with one touchdown allowed to receivers and tight ends.

Best odds: -115 via ESPN BET | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Saints vs. Chiefs odds

Monday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Saints vs. Chiefs
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 66 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 4-mph winds
  • Favorite: Chiefs -5.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.