Skip to main content

Packers vs. Lions Prediction Tonight: Thursday Night Football Odds & TNF Picks

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 5, 2024 5:25 PM EST • 4 min 43 sec read.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs gestures as we offer our Packers vs. Lions prediction tonight for Thursday Night Football.
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) gestures after earning a first down. Photo by Jeff Hanisch / Imagn Images.

Two surging NFC North teams collide tonight on Thursday Night Football as the Detroit Lions (11-1) host the Green Bay Packers (9-3) at Ford Field with an 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video).

The Lions own the shortest Super Bowl odds and are favored by 3.5 points tonight after a Week 9 win over their rivals, though our Packers vs. Lions prediction expects a fight from the road underdogs by the latest Thursday Night Football odds.

Here is our Thursday Night Football prediction as part of our Week 14 NFL predictions.

Best Packers vs. Lions picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Packers +3.5 () vs. Lions ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop pick: Josh Jacobs Over 15.5 rushing attempts () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Packers vs. Lions ATS prediction: Thursday Night Football

Packers to cover the spread: +3.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Lions won’t play keep-away

Detroit ran 47 plays in the first half of its Thanksgiving Day win against the Chicago Bears, which is tied for the most plays of any team in a first half this season. 

However, Green Bay is just as adept at playing a ball-control game. The Packers entered last week ranked 30th in pass rate over expectation and were in the top four for the slowest pace of play. Our Jordan Love TNF player prop bets expect him to play a huge part in Green Bay's success.

Packers defense can keep them in the game

It’s easier said than done, but limiting the Lions' running game is a big key to slowing down the offense. The Bears fell behind 16-0 at the half last week, as the Lions ran for 144 yards in the first half, their most in any half this season. 

Despite that rushing success, Detroit was held to 26 or fewer points for the fourth time in the last five games. 

Green Bay’s defense that ranks eighth against the run (allowing 106.6 rushing yards per game) is one of the few teams that held Detroit to fewer than four yards per carry in the first meeting.

However, our Andrew Brennan eyes Detroit's defense with his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for TNF.

Bears gave the Packers an offensive blueprint

The Bears entered last week ranked last in Offensive DVOA in road games. After being shut out in the first half, Chicago erupted for 20 points, and Caleb Williams overcame the team’s 39 rushing yards outside of his runs to throw for 256 yards and post a 3-0 TD-INT ratio.

Despite Green Bay’s slow pace of play, it ranks eighth in the league in scoring (26.5 points per game) largely because it takes shots downfield. Quarterback Jordan Love entered last week tied for second in average depth of target.

Love completed 75% or more of his passes for the second time in three games, and had two completions of 46-plus yards, despite battling the frigid temperatures at Lambeau Field.

Detroit will remain a popular play given that it is 32-11 ATS indoors in the regular season with NFL MVP odds long shot Jared Goff under center (the Lions are 9-3 ATS overall this year). But I am backing the Packers at anything more than a field goal, and BetMGM offers the best price to do so. 

This all lines up with Philip Wood's Packers vs. Lions early picks, and one of Brenden Schaeffer's selections in his Packers vs. Lions parlay picks.

A $10 winning wager at the -115 odds would return a payout of $18.70. 

Up To $1,500 Back In Bonus Bets

Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Packers vs. Lions player prop pick

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Josh Jacobs Over 15.5 rushing attempts (-128) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jacobs ranks third in the league with 987 rushing yards and fourth with 221 rushing attempts.

Do not make much out of Jacobs’ 13 rushing attempts in the loss to the Lions (his fewest attempts in the last five games), as the team fell behind by three touchdowns in the third quarter and were in catch-up mode.

Jacobs has seen 18 or more carries in six of the last eight games, and Matt LaFleur rode his bell-cow for 19 carries last week even though the Dolphins stuffed him for a 2.3 yards per carry average.

Normally I would not play a running back’s Over on rushing attempts on a Thursday night game, but Jacobs is on a full week’s rest having played on Thanksgiving.

This is a four-star play, as Green Bay has run for 150-plus yards six times this season, and should use a ball-control offense to keep Detroit’s top-ranked scoring offense off the field.

I was tempted to back Jacobs’ Over of 16.5 rushing attempts at BetMGM at +100 odds, but I settled on the best number at FanDuel. FanDuel is the only of our best sports betting apps offering an O/U as low as 15.5.

Meanwhile, our Packers vs. Lions TNF prop bets expect Green Bay's passing game to get going, as well. And Jayden Reed could be cash one of our first touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football.

Best odds: -128 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.14%

Win $150 + NBA League Pass 🏀

New customers only. Deposit min. $5. Place first bet of $5+ and win $150 in Bonus Bets (within 72 hours).

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Packers vs. Lions odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Packers vs. Lions odds movement

The spread for this critical tilt has generally moved two points toward the Packers since opening with Detroit favored at -5.5, and it now widely sits anywhere between -3 and -4 across our best NFL prop betting sites.

Meanwhile, the total has stayed stagnant. The opening number of 51.5 remains in place now as kickoff approaches, though you can still bet Under 52.5 across our best sports betting sites in the hours leading up to kickoff tonight.

Thursday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Packers vs. Lions
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Weather: Indoors

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”