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Packers vs. Dolphins SGP Odds, Picks, Predictions: How Will Quarterbacks Perform on Christmas Day?

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: December 25, 2022 4:04 AM EST • 2 min 35 sec read.

Reigning back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers will try to keep the Green Bay Packers' playoff hopes alive with a visit to the Miami Dolphins on Christmas Day. Check out our top Packers-Dolphins SGP picks.

The Packers (6-8) will need a road upset over the Dolphins (8-6) on Christmas Day to cling to the slimmest of Wild Card hopes in the NFC.

Miami, meanwhile, is in the midst of a tailspin. The Dolphins’ once-cozy playoff picture would take on a precarious tint if Miami drops its fourth game in a row on Christmas Day.

Here are our best Packers vs. Dolphins NFL SGP picks (odds via ; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our our Packers vs. Dolphins picks and our Aaron Rodgers vs. Tua Tagovailoa prop picks.

Packers vs. Dolphins SGP Picks Week 16

  • Over 50.5 (-105)
  • Raheem Mostert anytime touchdown scorer (-170)
  • Aaron Rodgers Over 274.5 passing yards (+150)

Combined odds: +350

Check out our NFL Best Bets and all of our top NFL Picks for Week 16.    

Packers vs. Dolphins Odds

SGP Predictions for Packers vs. Dolphins

Over 50.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Both the Packers and Dolphins are hitting the Over on 50% of their games this season. Though Sunday’s number is one of the higher totals of the week, it feels attainable for two offenses on the upswing. The Packers’ battle with the Los Angeles Rams in Week 15 resulted in just 36 total points, but they did score 24 of them. Green Bay games against the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles were profitable for Over bettors, with the contests reaching 59 and 73 total points, respectively. 

Miami has an offense comparable to those recent Green Bay opponents. The Dolphins have also allowed 29.3 points per game over its previous three contests. That run coincides with a more robust stretch for Green Bay’s offense, as the Packers have averaged 26.6 points per game over their last five. Unlike the majority of NFL games this weekend, there are no weather concerns in play down in Miami. lists the total at 50.5, making 49.5 listing the preferred option. FanDuel, however, hasn’t listed its player props for Sunday as of this writing.

Raheem Mostert anytime TD scorer (-170) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mostert rumbled for 136 yards on 17 carries last week against one of the best run defenses in the NFL in Buffalo. This week, Mostert matches up with a Green Bay run defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. 

Backfield partner Jeff Wilson has been limited in practice with a hip injury this week. Even if he suits up for Sunday’s game, it would make sense to see Miami ride Mostert after the juice he showed against the Bills. The Packers are susceptible to red zone scoring on the ground, having allowed 15 rushing scores this season.

This sets up Mostert as the most likely touchdown scorer of the game, according to both  (-200) and (-170), and for good reason.

Aaron Rodgers Over 274.5 passing yards (+150) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While Green Bay is more exploitable on the ground, the way to beat the Miami defense is to throw on it. The Dolphins rank 11th in run defense DVOA, but 26th in the NFL in the pass defense DVOA department. Miami allows 246.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 27th in NFL.

Though Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown for many gaudy totals during Green Bay’s recent offensive uptick, that’s been because the Packers have leaned heavily on their reliable running back tandem. Facing this defense with a necessity to keep pace with Miami’s high-powered offense, A-Rod should have ample opportunity through the air on Christmas Day.

Packers-Dolphins SGP picks made 12/23/2022 at 4:45 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.