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NFL Over/Under Odds Picks, Predictions for Week 16: Winter Weather Concerns Keeping Totals Low?

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: December 22, 2022 5:36 AM EST • 2 min 45 sec read.

Predictions for wild winter weather around the country are making an obvious impact on game totals across this NFL this weekend. Read on for our Week 16 Over/Under picks.

It’s expected to be a cold, windy, and perhaps snowy weekend across the Midwest, with the conditions likely to wreak havoc on a handful of NFL contests across Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Our ability to attack totals for the Week 16 slate will be undoubtedly linked to whatever Mother Nature has in store.

Here are our best NFL Over/Under picks for Week 16 (odds via , ; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 16

  • Texans-Titans Over 35.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Bills-Bears Over 40 (-110 via DraftKings)
  • Saints-Browns Under 32.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL O/U Predictions

Texans-Titans Over 35.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Houston Texans took both Dallas and Kansas City to the wire in consecutive games over the past two weeks with both contests seeing 50-plus total points. Houston forced five total turnovers in those games to set up its maligned offense for success with short fields.

The opportunity to tally takeaways should be present against rookie quarterback Malik Willis, who is expected to start for Tennessee in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill. Though Willis’ first appearance against Houston this season was a dud that saw just 27 total points, Derrick Henry ran for more than 200 yards and two touchdowns in that affair. With some experience under his belt and Treylon Burks potentially returning to bolster the receiving corps, I expect Willis to contribute more capably this time around.

While all three of our featured sportsbooks list the total at 35.5, BetMGM is the only one to offer the Over at standard -110 odds. DraftKings and FanDuel both list the Over at an inflated -115.

Bills-Bears Over 40 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I planted my flag on fading the weather hysteria for Miami Dolphins-Buffalo Bills in Week 15. It panned out in a 32-29 thriller that sailed Over the mid-40s game total. Despite a forecast for bitter cold and gusty winds in Chicago this weekend, I’m running it back with another Over involving the Bills.

Though this weekend’s weather concerns are probably valid, the number sitting at 40 at DraftKings is simply too tantalizing to ignore. Thanks to the lethal combo of an emerging Bears quarterback Justin Fields and the 31st-ranked defensive DVOA in the NFL, the Bears haven’t had a game go Under this total since mid-October. Buffalo ranks fourth in the NFL in scoring at 27.5 points per game. 

With adept, mobile quarterbacks on either side, windy conditions shouldn’t impact these offenses too significantly. Bet the Over at DraftKings instead of FanDuel or BetMGM to avoid the hook to 40.5.

Saints-Browns Under 32.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Here’s another Midwest-based game that expects weather to play a factor. Aside from the bitter cold, New Orleans Saints-Cleveland Browns could see 30-mph winds with gusts as high as 60 to 70 mph for Saturday’s game. While I believe in quarterbacks like Fields and Bills quarterback Josh Allen to matriculate the football down the field in blustery conditions, I have no such faith in Saints QB Andy Dalton and a rusty Deshaun Watson for the Browns.

Neither do the sportsbooks, posting the contest with the lowest total of an NFL weekend filled with low totals. A foot concern that has forced Browns running back Nick Chubb out of practice so far in the week adds to the question of how any touchdowns will be produced by the offenses in this game.

BetMGM is the only spot to offer standard -110 odds on our preferred pick in this matchup. That’s a better value than DraftKings (-115) or FanDuel (-114) on the same 32.5-point total.

NFL Over/Under picks made 12/22/2022 at 12:15 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.