NFL Odds, Lines Week 16: Quarterback Injuries Moving Betting Markets

Quarterback changes have been the top story this week, and it’s had a huge impact on the spreads and totals for multiple games. Here’s our analysis of the NFL odds and lines for Week 16.

News broke Monday that Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts sprained his shoulder during the Week 15 game against the Chicago Bears, and it proved to be just the tip of the iceberg.

The Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals, and Indianapolis Colts will also all have a new quarterback behind center this week, whereas Baltimore Ravens signal caller Lamar Jackson (knee) appears unlikely to play in Week 16 after he didn’t practice Wednesday.

At least the Denver Broncos will have quarterback Russell Wilson on Sunday, though. I'm sure their fanbase is thrilled.

Here are the NFL spread and Over/Under lines for Week 16, and how we think they'll move throughout the week (odds via , , , , and ).

Check out our NFL Best Bets and all of our top NFL Picks for Week 16.            

NFL Week 16 Odds and Lines: Saturday

Falcons vs. Ravens Picks

Spread: Ravens -7.5

There continues to be limited line movement in this game. It’s worth noting and aren’t providing the Atlanta Falcons with the hook as +7.5 road underdogs, but I expect the majority of wagers to come in on the Ravens leading into Saturday. I doubt backing Baltimore -7 will be an option much longer.

Total: 35.5

The Ravens have scored 29 points the past three weeks, and this total has dropped even further from the 41 that was available in look-ahead markets. With the Baltimore defense ranking third in defensive DVOA since its Week 10 bye, it could be a long afternoon for Atlanta rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder. Baltimore will have quarterback Tyler Huntley behind center again in Week 16. I consider the 35.5 total accurate, and I don’t anticipate significant future movement.

Lions vs. Panthers Picks

Spread: Lions -2.5

I expected this line to move in the opposite direction with the Carolina Panthers receiving the hook as a +3.5 home underdog. Now, the spread is below the key number of 3, and I still think there will be buyback on the Detroit Lions.

Total: 43.5

There’s been a slight majority of bets coming in on the Under to move this total down into the key range of 43-44. The look-ahead number was 44.5, so I’m not expecting an influx of money on either side.

Bills vs. Bears Picks

Spread: Bills -8

Early action was on the Bears, and that trend has continued this week. However, oddsmakers haven’t made a significant move to this spread. In fact, still has an outlier Buffalo Bills -8.5 hanging as of Thursday. I still anticipate this line remaining between the key numbers of 7 and 10, and for there to be buyback on Buffalo from recreational bettors leading into Saturday.

Total: 39.5

This game has also seen huge action on the total, with a number as high as 45.5 once available in look-ahead markets. Now that most sportsbooks have dipped it below the key range of 40-41, I expect buyback on the Over. Again, is on an island trading this game at 40.5.

Saints vs. Browns Picks

Spread: Browns -2.5

The New Orleans Saints haven’t won on the road since Week 1, so I’m expecting the early betting support for the Cleveland Browns to continue. and were still listing the Browns as a 3-point home favorite as of Thursday, but our other top-rated sportsbooks have all moved the line below the key number of 3. 

Total: 32

Weather forecasts are calling for snow and wind at FirstEnergy Stadium on Saturday, and this total has dropped as a result. It was as high as 39 last week in look-ahead markets. I think this is a bit of an overreaction, but bettors haven’t weighed in with buyback on the Over as of Thursday.

Seahawks vs. Chiefs Picks

Spread: Chiefs -10

The Kansas City Chiefs opened as 10-point home favorites, and following early action on the Seattle Seahawks moving the line to KC -9.5, this spread has returned to the key number of 10. Seattle has lost four of its past five games, while the 11-3 Chiefs are competing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so I’m not surprised by the betting action. 

Total: 49

This total has seen a lot of minor moves across our top-rated sportsbooks as of Thursday. is listing the highest number (49.5), and is hanging the lowest (48.5), but there isn’t a huge disparity. I still think there could be enough Over support for this total to climb closer to the key number of 51 by kickoff.

Giants vs. Vikings Picks

Spread: Vikings -4

There isn’t a consensus line for this game across our top-rated sportsbooks. and have returned the spread to the opening -4.5, whereas is listing the Minnesota Vikings as a -3.5 favorite. The betting action has remained relatively balanced as of Thursday, so I foresee this spread remaining around the key number of 4.

Total: 48

The Over has taken a small majority of the wagers for this game, and I expect the trend to continue. I just don’t think we’re going to see a huge increase in the total, though. That jump already occurred last week when the number climbed from 45.5 to 47.5 in look-ahead markets. Similar to the spread, and have the highest total (48.5), and is listing it the lowest at 47.5.

Bengals vs. Patriots Picks

Spread: Bengals -3

is listing the New England Patriots as a +3.5 home underdog, but otherwise, the Cincinnati Bengals are -3 road favorites across our top-rated sportsbooks. The look-ahead line was also Cincy -3, but the Bengals were a consensus -3.5 favorite earlier this week, so there’s been buyback on the Pats. I have the Bengals power ranked as -4.5 favorites, and the vig is higher on the Cincinnati -3 lines. As a result, I expect this spread to move in the Cincy direction again ahead of kickoff. 

Total: 41.5

This total has climbed above the key range of 40-41, and 41.5 is a consensus number. Considering it peaked at 42 in look-ahead markets, I don’t expect the Over momentum to move this spread above the key range of 43-44.

Texans vs. Titans Picks

Spread: Titans -3

With Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill (ankle) potentially done for the season, this spread has crashed from the Titans -8 that was trading during look-ahead markets. and are still hanging the hook, with the Houston Texans listed as +3.5 road underdogs. I consider that a more accurate spread. Houston has hung with the Cowboys and Chiefs in consecutive weeks, but I’m not convinced the dropoff from Tannehill to rookie signal caller Malik Willis is worth five points. 

Total: 35.5

Tannehill’s injury also left its mark on the total for this game, and it dropped below the key range of 36-37. Betting action has been tilted to the Under, and I expect that trend to continue. With that in mind, I’m not convinced we’ll see this number drop too much further.

Commanders vs. 49ers Picks

Spread: 49ers -7

While our top-rated sportsbooks have a consensus line with the San Francisco 49ers trading as -7 favorites, I still think this spread is going to increase. This is a short week for the Washington Commanders, whereas San Francisco has extra rest after playing last Thursday.   

Total: 37.5

This total continues to drop. It was as high as 41.5 for stretches in look-ahead markets and opened at 41. San Francisco has surrendered an average of just 11 points per contest during its seven-game winning streak, and the Commanders scored a measly 12 points against the New York Giants in Week 15. I’m interested to see if oddsmakers move the number into the key range of 36-37.

Check out our NFL Week 16 teaser picks.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Picks

Spread: Cowboys -5.5

While I view Philadelphia backup Gardner Minshew as one of the more capable No. 2 quarterbacks in the league, I’m still expecting this spread to continue moving in the Dallas direction until oddsmakers land on a number that results in buyback on Philadelphia. I’m not sure it’s going to take the Cowboys moving all the way to a touchdown favorite, but that wouldn’t surprise me, either. is listing Dallas -6, and our other top-rated sportsbooks have tacked on a higher vig to back Dallas -5.5. For what it’s worth, I have Hurts worth 5.5 points in my power rankings.

Total: 46.5

Before news of Hurts’ injury, this total was hovering around the key number of 51. is on an island with a 47.5 total, but our other top-rated sportsbooks are all listing this game at 46.5 as of Thursday. I consider it an accurate adjustment to the Hurts injury, and I don’t think we see significant movement leading into kickoff.

Raiders vs. Steelers Picks

Spread: Steelers -2.5

There hasn’t been notable movement to this spread as of Thursday. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-2 following their Week 9 bye, and the Las Vegas Raiders enter with wins in four of their past five games after a fluky last-second victory over the Patriots in Week 15. Pittsburgh was only a 1-point favorite in look-ahead lines, so I could see this margin shrinking leading into Sunday. I would also expect buyback on the Raiders if they’re receiving a field-goal headstart. It’s worth adding has an outlier Steelers -2 on the board as of Thursday.

Total: 38.5

There has been early money on the Under, as this total was trading as high as 41.5 in look-ahead markets and opened at 40.5. Dropping below the key range of 40-41 is notable, and it aligns with the Steelers playing stout defense during their noted improved stretch of play.

Check out our NFL Week 16 against-the-spread power rankings.

NFL Week 16 Odds and Lines: Sunday

Packers vs. Dolphins Picks

Spread: Dolphins -3.5

The Miami Dolphins were as high as a -5.5 favorite through on Monday, but the Green Bay Packers showed well on Monday Night Football, and this line is now at or below the key number of 4. and both have the Packers listed as a +4 road underdog. Betting action has been relatively even, and I don’t expect this spread to move entirely across either of the key numbers of 3 or 4.

Total: 49.5

This total skyrocketed up from the 46.5 that was trading Monday. In fact, (50) and (51) are even higher than the 49.5 available through , and . I’d expect this number to hover around the key number of 51 at closing.

Check out our Packers vs. Dolphins SGP Picks!

Broncos vs. Rams Picks

Spread: Broncos -3

Wilson will start Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams, and this spread has moved in Denver’s direction following L.A.’s 24-12 loss to Green Bay on Monday Night Football. and are below the key number of 3 with the Broncos trading as a -2.5 road favorite with the vig tilted in their direction. I’m anticipating this spread to move to a consensus Denver -3, and it could even close at -3.5.

Total: 36.5

Denver and Los Angeles respectively rank 32nd and 31st in points per game, and this total opened at 35.5 – the same number that was available in look-ahead markets. With the number now in the key range of 36-37, I don’t anticipate significant future movement.

Check out our Broncos vs. Rams SGP Picks!

Buccaneers vs. Cardinals Picks

Spread: Buccaneers -7.5

The betting community was already backing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and then it was announced the Cardinals would be starting third-string quarterback Trace McSorley in Week 16. As a result, this spread has climbed to Tampa -7.5, with and listing the Bucs as a -8 road favorite. 

Total: 40.5

There isn’t a consensus total across our top-rated sportsbooks. has the lowest number (39.5), and  is hanging the total at 40. The Buccaneers have played to a 4-10 Over/Under record, and as noted, Arizona is starting its No. 3 quarterback. I’m expecting Under money to continue weighing in.

Check out our Buccaneers vs. Cardinals SGP Picks and our Sunday Night Football Player Prop Picks!

NFL Week 16 Odds and Lines: Monday

Chargers vs. Colts Picks

Spread: Chargers -4.5

The Los Angeles Chargers received early betting support, and that trend has continued following the news the Colts will have quarterback Nick Foles starting behind center Monday. With the line above the key number of 4, there’s potential for it to continue climbing until there is buyback on the Colts. 

Total: 45.5

This total has dropped this week, but the betting action remains relatively even. I don’t consider there to be a significant dropoff for the Colts offense with Foles starting, and I felt this total should have been just above the key range of 43-44 with Matt Ryan behind center. As a result, I think the movement to this number is accurate.

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