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NFL Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Week 16

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 24, 2022 1:16 AM EST • 3 min 34 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

A record 12 of 16 NFL games last week were decided by one score, suggesting the competition is ramping up in the final stretch of the regular season. We have highlighted the odds, movements, and our NFL best bets for Week 16.

Entering Week 16, six of the 14 playoff spots were claimed, while five teams have been eliminated from playoff contention entirely. 

As we finish December and head into early January, will the cold weather significantly impact games? Oddsmakers seem to think so, as seven games have a total Under 40, while the matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns is on pace to have the lowest O/U at kickoff since 2008.

Here are our best NFL bets for Week 16 (odds via and ; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 16.

NFL Schedule and Odds for Week 16

(odds via DraftKings)

NFL Best Bets for Week 16

  • Spread: Dolphins -3.5 (-107 via PointsBet)  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Upset: Saints ML (+136 via FanDuel)  ⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Giants-Vikings 48.5 (-107 via PointsBet)  ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player Prop: D.J. Moore anytime touchdown scorer (+220 via FanDuel)  ⭐⭐⭐

Week 16 NFL Top Picks

Spread: Dolphins -3.5 (-107) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Regarding homefield advantages late in the season, no team is in a more advantageous situation than the Miami Dolphins. In November or later than 2016, Miami has gone 22-6-2 ATS at home and won 23 of the 30 games outright. Overall since 2016, the Dolphins are 33-18-3 ATS at home. 

It's not easy for cold weather teams like Green Bay, who are used to freezing temperatures this time of year, to play through the heat and humidity. In addition, the Dolphins found a running game against Buffalo last week, running for 100-plus yards for the first time since Week 10. They should have similar success against a Packers defense that ranks 29th against the run (148.9 yards per game allowed). 

PointsBet is the only sportsbook where bettors can find the Dolphins at -3.5 without paying more than the standard -110 juice.

Check out our Packers vs. Dolphins SGP Picks

Upset: Saints ML (+136) ⭐⭐⭐

Andy Dalton has played well over the last four games with six touchdown passes and no interceptions, while the New Orleans Saints defense has held opponents to 17.6 points per game over the previous five weeks.

Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson's completion percentage has increased in the last three weeks, but the team has managed just two offensive touchdowns in those three games. In addition, the total has plummeted from last week's lookahead line of 39 to 32, as the forecast calls for snow and wind gusts of up to 40 mph. Thus, this game could come down to who runs the ball better, and we have not been inspired by Nick Chubb lately, who has failed to run for more than 4.7 yards per carry in any of the previous five weeks and has surpassed the 100-yard plateau just once in the last six.

New Orleans is as low as +125 at competing sportsbooks, so FanDuel offers the best value for Saints backers.

Total: Giants-Vikings Under 48.5 (-107) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

New York pressured Washington's Taylor Heinicke on 44% of dropbacks and has gotten pressure on 36% of pass rushes since Week 8 (third-best in the league). Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins finished with gaudy stats in the Minnesota Vikings' historic comeback against the Indianapolis Colts. But when the game got away from them in the first half, Cousins was 6-of-12 for 43 yards and one interception. Thus, we would not expect Minnesota to be consistently breaking off plays of 35-plus yards (they did that four times last week) with a more conservative game plan.

Not only does PointsBet save us money in juice at -107 odds, but it's the only sportsbook higher than the 47.5s or 48s found elsewhere.

Player prop: D.J. Moore anytime touchdown scorer (+220) ⭐⭐⭐

Since Week 9, the Detroit Lions defense has allowed 3.2 yards per rush, and just one running back (Devin Singletary) has scored more than nine points against them in that span. Thus, we expect the Carolina Panthers' primary source of offense to come through the air, and there is no better receiving candidate to score a touchdown than D.J. Moore. Moore has more than double the number of targets (97) and touchdowns (five) than the next-leading receiver on the team.

One can find this prop at FanDuel and DraftKings, but FanDuel offers much better value than DraftKings' +165 odds.

Check out our NFL Touchdown Scorer Prop Picks

NFL best bets made 12/23/2022 at 6:20 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”