North Dakota State vs. Montana State Prediction & Picks Tonight: FCS Championship Odds

Montana State can capture an FCS title for the first time since 1984. However, the mighty North Dakota State stands in the way on Monday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

We've made our North Dakota State vs. Montana State prediction, and Brent Vigen's squad is expected to prevail after leading the FCS championship odds for weeks. However, North Dakota is always formidable and has won a record nine FCS championships, but none since 2021.

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North Dakota State vs. Montana State prediction & best pick: FCS championship

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Montana State -3 () vs. North Dakota State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• My best pick: Tommy Mellott anytime TD scorer () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

North Dakota State vs. Montana State ATS prediction

Montana State to cover the spread: -3 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%

Taking down North Dakota State won't be easy; the Bison are the FCS' Alabama after all. But Montana State is having a special season and has one of the most potent rushing attacks in recent memory.

Led QB Tommy Mellott, the likely Walter Payton Award winner, the Bobcats have put up 30-plus points in every game this season and have won all but one FCS game by 14 or more points. In three playoff wins over UT Martin, Idaho, and South Dakota, the Bobcats have won by an average margin of 26.3 points.

Stopping Mellott is a nearly impossible task, but it becomes that much harder when considering he has the best running back tandem in the country beside him. Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones have combined for 2,474 rushing yards and 29 TDs this season.

That trio is going to be tough to slow for an NDSU defense that ranks outside the top 20 in rushing yards allowed and outside the top 30 in yards per carry. 

Big-game hunting

Taking down the Bison may have seemed impossible several years ago, but this isn't the same squad that won nine titles between 2011 and 2021. While QB Cam Miller, wide receiver Bryce Lance, and offensive tackle Grey Zabel have NFL futures, Montana State is equipped with the ammunition on defense to get the job done.

The Bobcats defensive line, featuring Brody Grebe, Kenneth Eiden IV, and Paul Brott, is a problem. Those three have a combined 18.5 sacks and 112 pressures this season and should get after Miller.

If Montana State continues to play up to its potential, it can win its 16th game this season by four-plus points and turn a $10 bet into a $9.09 profit.

North Dakota State vs. Montana State best pick

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Tommy Mellott anytime TD scorer ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -150 via bet365 | Implied probability: 60%

There are three good options to back to find the end zone for Montana State, with Jones (-170), Mellott (-150), and Humphrey (-125). But the smartest play has got to be the guy nicknamed "Touchdown Tommy."

While Mellott's odds are a little short, I'm perfectly comfortable backing him because he's been the Bobcats' most consistent scoring threat this year. He's run for 14 touchdowns this season - and 42 in his career - with at least one in eight of his last 11 games.

Mellott is a big play waiting to happen; he ranks top 10 among QBs in rushing yards after contact (394), missed tackles forced (30), and 10-plus-yard runs (32). And if he finds the end zone in the national championship, a $10 bet pays a $6.67 profit.

North Dakota State vs. Montana State line movement

The point spread opened just before Christmas with Montana State as the 3-point favorite, and now over the past 24 hours it's moved through the key number at some of our best sportsbooks to sit at -3.5. 

Meanwhile, the total has been zig-zagging since the opening number of 56, but it's now ended up at the highest offering so far of 58.5.

North Dakota State vs. Montana State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

North Dakota State vs. Montana State live odds

North Dakota State vs. Montana State opening odds:

• North Dakota State: +3 (-110)
• Montana State: -3 (-110)

North Dakota State vs. Montana State injuries

FCS championship game info

• When: Monday, Jan. 6
• Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Where: Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: 39 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 14 mph NW
• Favorite: Montana State -3 (-110 via Caesars)

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