Skip to main content

NFL Christmas Day Prop Picks, Predictions: Can Russell Wilson Outduel Baker Mayfield?

Rodrigo Villagomez

Last Updated: December 24, 2022 4:48 AM EST • 2 min 35 sec read.

There are three intriguing NFL matchups on Christmas Day. Read on for our top NFLChristmas Day prop picks based on the latest odds. 

We'll get to enjoy a special holiday NFL tripleheader. The slate begins with the Green Bay Packers escaping the freezing cold to take on the Miami Dolphins. Later that afternoon, the Denver Broncos travel west to play the Los Angeles Rams. Finally, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers end the day against the Arizona Cardinals. 

The following props offer a deeper dive into the books, going beyond the more typical bets. Some are specific to one book, but all are selected based on value.

Here are our best NFL Christmas Day prop picks (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Barstool Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Christmas Day parlay picks.

NFL Christmas Day Prop Picks for Week 16

  • Packers Over 23.5 (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Russell Wilson -27.5 Over Baker Mayfield passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Arizona Cardinals +4.5 first-half spread (-110 via WynnBET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Check out our Week 16 NFL picks roundup.

NFL Christmas Day Prop Predictions

Packers Over 23.5 (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Green Bay struggled offensively to start the season and is averaging 20.5 points per game. However, that's shot up to 28.3 over the team's past three affairs. The Packers have reached at least 24 points in four of their last five contests. They've eclipsed this total six times in 2022.

Meanwhile, Miami is allowing 24.6 points per game. The Dolphins are on a three-game losing streak and have surrendered at least 24 points in two of their last three outings. The Los Angeles Chargers finished just one point shy of cashing this prop against the Dolphins in Week 14. The Over on this total has hit eight times in 2022 against Miami.

Caesars is the only book offering the Over at even money. DraftKings has it listed at -105, Barstool is at -109, and FanDuel sits at -102. BetMGM is offering the line at 20.5 while pricing the Over at -160.

Check out our Packers-Dolphins picks, SGP picks, and Aaron Rodgers-Tua Tagovailoa picks.

Wilson -27.5 Over Baker Mayfield passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Wilson is averaging 233.8 passing yards per game during his first year in Denver. Overall, the Broncos are averaging 231.6 yards through the air per matchup. They're facing a Rams defense that's allowing 241.5 yards per outing to opposing quarterbacks.

Despite winning his Los Angeles debut, Mayfield threw for only 230 yards against the Las Vegas Raiders. That number plummeted to only 111 versus the Packers in Week 15. He's averaging a mere 183.8 passing yards per game in 2022 overall. His opponent this week is allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (211.6).

Check out our Broncos-Rams picks and SGP picks.

Cardinals +4.5 first-half spread (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Cardinals are averaging 9.8 first-half points in 2022, and they're surrendering 12.4 points to their opposition before the half. Arizona has gone into the locker room with the lead at the half in its last three games. That includes the last two when Arizona has played without quarterback Kyler Murray.

Tampa Bay has been struggling to score overall in 2022, let alone in the first two quarters of the game. The Bucs are averaging only 8.1 points before halftime while allowing nine to opponents. They've failed to lead at the half in three out of their last four matchups. 

The price for this prop remains constant across most of the major books. However, Barstool posts Tampa Bay at -3.5 as -124 favorites, with Arizona +3.5 at -103 underdogs.

Check out our Buccaneers-Cardinals picks and SGP picks.

Christmas Day prop picks made 12/24/2022 at 12:44 a.m. ET.

Where to Bet on NFL Christmas Day Prop Picks

Here are our Best NFL Betting Sites:

* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related Pages

●      U.S. Sports Betting | Best U.S. Sportsbook Promos

Written By:
Rodrigo Villagomez
Rod has been a contributing author at Sportsbook Review for the last two years specializing in NASCAR and NFL prop betting. He has been writing and podcasting professionally for almost 20 years, spending the last four years in the sports gambling space. Rod has made several appearances on the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports channel. He’s appeared multiple times on the Fantasy Alarm Show with Howard Bender as well as several times over the last two years during the FSGA Draft Week. He is a published author in the academic world with an article on steroids in baseball featured in the Bedford Reader textbook. Rod loves to find non-traditional bets which has led him to dive into the world of defensive and kicking props in football among others. His love of motorsports has translated into several winning weeks of both NASCAR and Formula 1 bets. Rod is a fan first and aims to provide betting picks that are not only profitable but will provide the maximum entertainment value during the sweat. Ultimately, he tries to remember that watching sports should still be fun and anything else is icing on the cake.