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NFL Betting Trends to Know for Week 17: Can the Rams, Steelers, and Broncos Avoid Historic Losses?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 27, 2022 7:58 AM EST • 2 min 59 sec read.

With one more loss each, the Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers will make history of the wrong kind. We dive into that and more in our list of Week 17 trends to know in the NFL.

One of the most challenging things for novice NFL bettors is to sift through the countless trends in each game and determine their relevance or impact on the game at hand. For example, head-to-head data between two teams dating back to the 1970s provide little insight since none of the players taking the field were born at that time. Thus, we aim to give you the most relevant information and trends to use when making your weekly wagers.

Here are our top NFL trends to know for Week 17 (odds via ).

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Top NFL Betting Trends for Week 17

Rams (+275 ML) vs. Chargers

The Los Angeles Rams need wins in their final two games to avoid setting the record for the most losses by a defending Super Bowl champion.

The Rams are 5-10 and are currently tied with the 1999 Denver Broncos for the most losses by a defending Super Bowl champion. Los Angeles flirted with this dubious record last week as a +3.5-point home underdog to the Broncos but erupted for its biggest win of the season (51-14). It was the Rams’ second win in the last nine games and their second win by double-digits this season. Los Angeles’ two wins in its previous three games have coincided with Baker Mayfield being the starting quarterback, and he has thrown for 190.3 yards per game, with a 4-1 TD-INT ratio and a 98.9 passer rating.

The Rams and Broncos combined for 65 points last week, easily cashing the Over in a game with a projected 36.5-point total. That was tied for the second-lowest total in a game in a dome since 2008.

Steelers (+155 ML) vs. Ravens

The Pittsburgh Steelers need to go 1-0-1 in their final two games or better to avoid their first losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin.

Pittsburgh enters this week at 7-8 and passed its first test last week with a 13-10 come-from-behind win over the Raiders to avoid its first losing season in Tomlin’s 16-year tenure for now. In addition, the Steelers improved to 57-26-2 SU with T.J. Watt in the lineup over the last five seasons (they are 1-10 SU without him).

Keep an eye on the Steelers’ +3.5-point spread against the Ravens this week. Since 2005, underdogs of more than three points in this rivalry have covered the spread in 18 of 20 matchups.

Chiefs (-850 ML) vs. Broncos

The Kansas City Chiefs are 14-0 SU in their last 14 games against the Denver Broncos.

The Chiefs’ 14 straight wins in the rivalry are tied with the Patriots-Jets for the longest active winning streak by one opponent against another. The Chiefs still have a ways to go to break the record for consecutive wins between division rivals (since 1970), as the Dolphins dominated the Bills with 20 straight victories between 1970-1979. However, the current 14-game winning streak is already the sixth-highest all-time.

It is not just the Broncos that Patrick Mahomes beats up on, as he is 25-3 in his career against AFC West opponents. In addition, he has not lost a divisional game on the road in his career, including a 6-0 record at Mile High Stadium. Although this Week 17 matchup is at Arrowhead, it's worth highlighting how dominant Mahomes is on the road in the AFC West. He's 15-0 in road games against division rivals, which is the second-longest winning streak by a quarterback in division games since the 1970 merger. He needs six more such wins to break Joe Montana’s record of 20 set from 1984-93. 

While Kansas City may not be in danger of losing this matchup, one may want to look at Denver’s +13-point spread odds. Patrick Mahomes is 29-35-1 as a favorite of 3.5 or more and is 17-6-1 ATS in all other games. In addition, Mahomes is just 2-9 ATS following a SU win this season.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”