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NFL Betting Trends to Know for Week 16: Will Underdogs Continue to Bark?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 2 min 32 sec read.

If one faded every favorite and bet on NFL underdogs to cover the spread (or win outright) in every game this season, they would have seen some big returns. We dive into that and more in our list of Week 16 trends to know in the NFL. 

One of the most challenging things for novice NFL bettors is to sift through the countless trends in each game and determine their relevance or impact on the game at hand. For example, head-to-head data between two teams dating back to the 1970s provide little insight since none of the players taking the field were born at that time. Thus, we aim to give you the most relevant information and trends to use when making your weekly wagers.

Here are our top NFL trends to know for Week 16 (odds via ).

Top NFL Betting Trends for Week 16

Vikings (-175 ML) vs. Giants

The Minnesota Vikings are 13-0 SU in their last 13 games as favorites.

This trend dates back to last season, as the Vikings are 11-3 this season, and all three losses (at Eagles, vs. Cowboys, at Lions) have been as underdogs. However, Minnesota needed a comeback for the ages last week to keep that streak intact, as it rallied from a 33-0 third-quarter deficit to stun the Indianapolis Colts 39-36 in overtime. It was the largest comeback in NFL history, and the Vikings are now just the second team ever to rally from down 30-plus points to win. Minnesota is also just the eighth team to earn a victory after rallying from down 25-plus points.

With Minnesota as 3.5-point favorites, there is also a concerning trend that it is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games against NFC opponents. Thus, there is not much wiggle room in this line for the Vikings to win outright and the Giants to cover. Additionally, Minnesota improved to 10-0 SU in one-score games this season, while New York is 6-3-1 SU and 8-2 ATS as underdogs, the most profitable team this season ATS as underdogs.  

Lions (-2.5) vs. Panthers, Bengals (-3.5) vs. Patriots

The Detroit Lions have covered seven straight games while the Cincinnati Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six.

Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last six games, with three outright wins as underdogs. Furthermore, quarterback Jared Goff is 27-13 ATS in the 1 p.m. ET window (covered seven straight) in his career but is 26-29-2 ATS in all other time slots. He gets another early start on the road against the Panthers in Week 16. 

Cincinnati is 19-3 ATS in its last 22 games and is the most profitable ATS team in the NFL over the previous two seasons (25-10 ATS), including playoffs. Joe Burrow is 18-3 ATS in his last 21 starts and has covered 17 of his previous 24 road starts.

Will underdogs keep barking?

Favorites have had one week over .500 ATS all season.  

Underdogs are 117-96-7 (54.8%) ATS this season, including going 8-6-1 last week. For most of the season, ‘dogs have been a profitable play, as Week 13 was the only week that favorites had an over .500 record ATS (10-4). And be wary of favorites of at least nine points, as they are 0-5 ATS in the last five instances dating back to the start of Week 14. The two games that week that fit that trend are the Bills (-9) at the Bears, and the Chiefs (-9.5) vs. the Seahawks. 

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”