NFL MVP Odds: With Allen Likely Resting in Week 18, Has He Done Enough To Win MVP?
Last Updated: December 30, 2024 8:11 AM EST • 3 min 62 sec read.
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson had similar Week 17 performances, registering three touchdowns while humiliating their opponents.
The most notable difference is Jackson scampered for an additional 70 yards and ran roughshod over a far superior opponent, thrashing the AFC South-winner Houston Texans in their house.
It was probably the last we'll see of Allen in the regular season, as it's hard to envision the Bills risking the MVP odds front-runner for a meaningless game against the basement-dwelling New England Patriots, especially considering his recent hand issues.
The same cannot be said for the other three contenders, with Jackson and long-shot Joe Burrow suiting up in their different, albeit just as meaningful, playoff battles.
With an opportunity to break the single-season rushing record, Saquon Barkley, the other MVP outsider, will probably play in Week 18. Here are how the contenders' MVP odds look across our best NFL betting sites.
NFL MVP odds
NFL MVP odds via our best NFL prop betting sites after Week 16. See our NFL player prop odds tool for the latest odds on any player.
Josh Allen, QB, Bills (-300)
2024 stats: 3,731 passing yards, 28 TDs, 6 INTs (529 rushing yards, 12 TDs)
The Allen vs. Jackson narrative will continue into Week 18 despite the former probably watching from the sidelines.
Allen's Bills have won two more games than Jackson's Ravens, and he has hit pay dirt eight more times on the ground. Both are the undisputed leaders of their teams, and while Jackson has superior stats in many categories, their numbers are similar down the stretch.
Allen has 17 touchdowns (10 passing and seven rushing) and one pick in the last five games, while Jackson has 16 touchdowns (14 passing, two rushing) compared to one interception.
However, Allen is the minus-money favorite due to the Bills exceeding expectations more so than any of the Super Bowl odds favorites excluding the Minnesota Vikings.
While we knew the Bills were a playoff-caliber team entering the season, few predicted them running the table.
The Bills even had a marginally more difficult schedule, according to . Also, Jackson lost three of six contests from Weeks 8 through 13, while Allen's worst stint was two consecutive losses early in the campaign.
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Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (+275)
2024 stats: 3,955 passing yards, 39 TDs, 4 INTs (852 rushing yards, 4 TDs)
If we've learned anything since the start of the season, it's not to count out the reigning MVP winner.
He was falling off the pace entering Week 7 before a demonstrative five-touchdown outing on the road in Tampa Bay. Entering their Week 14 bye, Jackson had again dropped off.
He returned revitalized, with one goal in mind: steering his Ravens to the AFC North crown. While the job remains incomplete, Jackson has led the Ravens to three straight wins with an average margin of 22.3 points.
In those games (against the New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Texans), he scored 11 touchdowns and was picked off once. He'll have to produce one of his best outings of the season against the Cleveland Browns in Week 18.
Still, anything is possible with Allen probably resting and Lamar's unparalleled ability to make jaws involuntarily drop.
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Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles (+2500)
2024 stats: 345 carries, 2,005 rushing yards, 13 TDs (33 receptions, 278 yards, 2 TDs)
Imagine a scenario where a running back eclipses the 2000-yard mark but won't win MVP. That's precisely what is about to happen, with Barkley enjoying another dominant performance, this time bulldozing his way to 167 yards on 31 carries against the Dallas Cowboys.
Barkley is the ninth player in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards in a single season. And he's only 101 shy of setting the single-season record (2,105) set by Eric Dickerson with the Los Angeles Rams in 1984.
Not bad for the first-year Eagle.
Unfortunately, he's fighting an uphill battle with a 100-pound weight anchored to his ankle. It's a quarterback-driven award, and he's up against three of the best.
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals (+3000)
2024 stats: 4,641 passing yards, 42 TDs, 8 INTs (202 rushing yards, 2 TDs)
If only Burrow played with a defense that could at least hold their own. If that were the case, we'd be discussing him being on the cusp of winning his first MVP.
Burrow's performance against the Denver Broncos pushed him to personal best marks, bringing him to 4,641 passing yards, eclipsing his previous best of 4,611 in 2021.
Imagine if he stays hot against the Steelers, one of the best defenses, and finds a way to get the Bengals into the playoffs. That scenario would be impossible to ignore, potentially allowing Burrow to snatch this award at the death.
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Gary Pearson