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Michael Penix Jr. NFL Player Prop Odds, Predictions & Best Bets vs. Giants

Esten McLaren

Last Updated: December 22, 2024 5:00 AM EST • 1 min 49 sec read.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) warms up before a game as we look at the best Michael Penix Jr. NFL player prop odds and picks.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) warms up before a game. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images.

It's the dawn of the Michael Penix Jr. era in Atlanta, and the New York Giants (2-12) will represent the ideal welcome mat on Sunday as he takes over for the ineffective Kirk Cousins.

Cousins led the Falcons to first place in the NFC South earlier in the season, but that lead disappeared while he threw nine interceptions and just one touchdown as the team went 1-4 over five games. The eighth overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft now steps in with the Dirty Birds trailing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by one game for the division lead - and the only likely shot at a playoff berth.

Here are the best Michael Penix Jr. player prop odds, and my favorite picks for Sunday's 1 p.m. ET matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (FOX). The Falcons are 8.5-point favorites by the latest NFL Week 16 odds.

Michael Penix Jr. player prop odds vs. Giants

My best Michael Penix Jr. player prop pick: Week 16

Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

  • Michael Penix Jr. prop pick: Under 226.5 passing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

My analysis

There are about as many ways to beat the Giants as there are to skin a cat. In either case, most methods don't involve a pile of passing yards.

The Giants allow just 200.4 passing yards per game, with only six teams allowing fewer. That's not necessarily because of a good pass defense, but because they allow 143.7 rushing yards per game - more than all but the Carolina Panthers.

Expect Falcons head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to keep life extremely simple for the debuting rookie. Running back Bijan Robinson ran for four touchdowns across his last five games, and he topped 100 yards thrice in that span.

I wouldn't expect Penix to pass often in what has proven to be a very efficient matchup for quarterbacks this season.

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Written By:
Esten McLaren
Esten is the Senior Publishing Editor for 520ccc.com. He has been in the sports betting industry since the legalization of mobile sports betting in New Jersey, and with SportsbookReview prior to the launch of sports betting in Ontario. Esten's previous stops include the USA TODAY network, including GolfWeek. He previously worked in the fantasy sports industry, with FNTSY Sports Network, theScore, and USA TODAY. Esten graduated from the College of Sports Media with a diploma in Radio and Television Sports Broadcasting after acquiring a degree in Biological Sciences from the University of Guelph. He has appeared on FNTSY Sports Network, VSiN, and VSiN's Long Shots podcast, where he correctly called Will Zalatoris as the winner of the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Esten is a big proponent of the entertainment side of sports betting and loves to dip his toes into the novelty and alt-markets while chasing long shots with reduced wagers on golf outrights and futures markets. He's also been known to sprinkle some lunch money on touchdown-scorer parlays with two notable hits still funding his bankroll. Esten looks at sports betting much like golf and advises beginner bettors to compete against themselves rather than being concerned with what others may or may not be doing based on social media claims.