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Matthew Stafford MNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds

Philip Wood

Last Updated: November 11, 2024 9:37 AM EST • 3 min 48 sec read.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford passes against the Seattle Seahawks as we offer our Matthew Stafford MNF player prop bets.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford passes against the Seattle Seahawks. Photo by Joe Nicholson via Imagn Images

The latest Monday Night Football odds only favor the Rams by 2.5 points over the 2-6 Miami Dolphins despite the game being played at SoFi Stadium (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN). What does a close contest mean for the best Matthew Stafford MNF player prop bets?

The Rams quarterback has thrown six touchdown passes over the last two weeks after throwing just three in his first six games. However, he’s also thrown an interception in five consecutive games and hasn’t topped 300 yards since Week 1.

The below props are part of our MNF coverage, including the Dolphins vs. Rams prediction and Dolphins vs. Rams player props.  

Matthew Stafford prop predictions for Monday Night Football

  • Matthew Stafford touchdown pick: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 interceptions () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Matthew Stafford Under 257.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Matthew Stafford touchdown pick vs. Dolphins

Matthew Stafford Pick Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+120) ⭐⭐⭐

Stafford has thrown multiple touchdown passes in back-to-back weeks, but he threw one or fewer touchdowns in each of his first six games. While it may seem like he’s turned a corner after his recent performances, those outlier performances came against two defenses allowing 1.6 passing touchdowns per game.

The Dolphins are allowing just one passing touchdown per game. They gave up three touchdown passes last week, but that performance also came against Josh Allen, one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

This game could end up being a shootout, which is why this is only a three-star play, but for each of our best NFL betting sites to heavily favor Stafford to hit this Over seems a little wild.

Four of the five major sportsbooks have the price for the Under at +112 or more. However, FanDuel has it at -102. I think FanDuel’s probability is the most accurate based on what has happened this season, so there’s plenty of value in taking this for +120 at bet365.

Best odds: +120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 45.45%

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Matthew Stafford player props

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 interceptions (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Stafford has thrown a pick in five consecutive games and six of eight this season. He takes on a defense that only picks off an average of 0.5 passes per game. But they did pick off Allen once last week. Additionally, Stafford threw a pick against the Las Vegas Raiders, a team averaging just 0.6 interceptions per game.

The most enticing thing about this prop is the price. Every major sportsbook has the Under listed at -120 or more. Even in a good matchup, Stafford’s Over should be favored considering he’s thrown an interception in 75% of his games. To get this better than -110 is pretty shocking.

Best odds: -108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.92%

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Matthew Stafford Under 257.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Stafford has thrown for at least 279 yards in back-to-back games, his highest passing totals since Week 1. However, both performances came against pass defenses ranked 20th or worse. The Dolphins currently rank sixth in the league, allowing just 183.1 passing yards per game.

Stafford has only cleared this number in four of his eight games this season. In the four games where he failed to hit this total, his highest passing total was just 224 yards, and he threw for just 154 yards against the Raiders earlier this year.

Since Stafford has such a low floor, and his success this season seems matchup-based, the best thing to do is find the highest number you can and take his Under. Right now, FanDuel has the total set at 250.5, and Caesars has it set at 255.5. The other three sportsbooks have it listed at 257.5, and bet365 has the best price.

A winning $10 bet will yield a $9.09 profit. Meanwhile, our Mike Spector takes a look at the best Tua Tagovailoa MNF player props. 

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

Dolphins vs. Rams odds

Monday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Dolphins vs. Rams
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Rams -2.5 (-114 via FanDuel)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.