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Lions vs. 49ers Prediction, MNF Picks & Odds Tonight: Monday Night Football

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 30, 2024 5:15 PM EST • 4 min 5 sec read.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. We're backing Purdy in our Lions vs. 49ers prediction.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. Photo by Jasen Vinlove via Imagn Images.

The Detroit Lions are closing in on the top seed in the NFC, but need a win on Monday Night Football tonight against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Will the Lions be able to overcome their injury issues to cover against a feisty 49ers team?

Lions vs. 49ers line movement

Detroit opened as a 3-point favorite across our best sports betting apps and the line has seen minimal movement. The Lions are listed at -3.5 ahead of tonight's game

Only 22% of the money is on San Francisco to cover, with 78% backing the Lions. The game total has dropped to 50 with 58% of the money on the Over.

Best Lions vs. 49ers picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: 49ers +3.5 () vs. Lions ⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Brock Purdy Over 20.5 completions () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Lions vs. 49ers against the spread prediction: Monday Night Football

49ers to cover the spread: +3.5 (-110) ⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

San Francisco can take advantage of Detroit’s defensive injuries

It is easy to forget that the Lions entered last week with 16 defensive players on injured reserve after they took care of business in a tidy 34-17 road win over the Chicago Bears.

But that is the same Chicago offense that mustered just three points on Thursday night this week, and San Francisco can exploit Detroit’s injury-ravaged defense in ways the Bears could not.

Even after playing two games against the struggling Bears offense in the last month, Detroit ranks as the third-worst defense in terms of defensive EPA/play in that span.

49ers' defense can slow down Jared Goff

Lions quarterback Jared Goff is making a desperate late-season push for the MVP award, as he has thrown for over 400 yards and four touchdowns per game in the last two weeks.

However, San Francisco ranks fifth in DVOA pass defense, and its defensive front is much more formidable with a healthy Nick Bosa back in the lineup.

History is on San Francisco’s side

This is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game, where the Lions blew a 17-point halftime lead. The home team has won seven times in the previous eight between teams that met the following season after playing in the conference championship.

The fishy nature of this line has me most intrigued to back the underdogs, as Detroit is 7-0 on the road this season.

And while Brock Purdy has covered the spread in just two of his last 11 games against teams with a winning record, this is a tricky situational spot for Detroit.

The 49ers have nothing to lose, while Detroit would still clinch the NFC North even if it loses this week but beats Minnesota in the season finale.

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Monday Night Football picks

Lions vs. 49ers player prop

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Brock Purdy Over 20.5 completions (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Detroit’s plethora of defensive injuries has left it vulnerable against the pass.

Over the last four weeks, the Lions rank 30th against the pass while allowing a ton of explosive plays as the league’s worst pass defense in terms of yards allowed per completion (14.3).

Detroit’s pressure is not getting to opposing quarterbacks, leaving it vulnerable in the secondary. The Lions have blitzed at the third-highest rate since Week 13 but rank 19th in pressure rate in that span.

Detroit will likely continue to blitz at a high rate to challenge a 49ers offensive line playing without two starters, Trent Williams and Aaron Banks. But I expect Kyle Shanahan to use the Lions’ aggressiveness against them, drawing up several high-percentage throws for Purdy.

All of our top sports betting sites are in unison with an O/U of 20.5, but the Over at BetMGM is juiced as high as -135, meaning we are getting great value at FanDuel. Through FanDuel’s -114 odds, a $10 winning wager would profit $8.77.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

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Lions vs. 49ers odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Lions vs. 49ers injuries

Monday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Lions vs. 49ers
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
  • How to watch: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
  • Weather: 44 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph SE
  • Favorite: Lions -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”