Lions vs. 49ers Prediction, MNF Picks & Odds: Monday Night Football

The Detroit Lions look to inch closer to locking up the NFC’s No. 1 seed in the playoffs with a win as road favorites over the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Monday Night Football.

• The Lions would be the NFC’s No. 1 seed with wins in its final two games
• Detroit, receiving the second-best Super Bowl odds, has already set a franchise record for wins in a season (13)
• The 49ers have lost five of their last six games

The Monday Night Football odds have the Lions as 3.5-point favorites in a game with a total of 50.5 points, and we use that to make our best Lions vs. 49ers prediction, which are part of our NFL Week 17 predictions. 

Best Lions vs. 49ers picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: 49ers +3.5 () vs. Lions ⭐⭐
• Player prop: Brock Purdy Over 20.5 completions () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Lions vs. 49ers against the spread prediction: Monday Night Football

49ers to cover the spread: +3.5 (-110) ⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

San Francisco can take advantage of Detroit’s defensive injuries

It is easy to forget that the Lions entered last week with 16 defensive players on injured reserve after they took care of business in a tidy 34-17 road win over the Chicago Bears.

But that is the same Chicago offense that mustered just three points on Thursday night this week, and San Francisco can exploit Detroit’s injury-ravaged defense in ways the Bears could not.

Even after playing two games against the struggling Bears offense in the last month, Detroit ranks as the third-worst defense in terms of defensive EPA/play in that span.

49ers' defense can slow down Jared Goff

Lions quarterback Jared Goff is making a desperate late-season push for the MVP award, as he has thrown for over 400 yards and four touchdowns per game in the last two weeks.

However, San Francisco ranks fifth in DVOA pass defense, and its defensive front is much more formidable with a healthy Nick Bosa back in the lineup.

History is on San Francisco’s side

This is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game, where the Lions blew a 17-point halftime lead. The home team has won seven times in the previous eight between teams that met the following season after playing in the conference championship.

The fishy nature of this line has me most intrigued to back the underdogs, as Detroit is 7-0 on the road this season.

And while Brock Purdy has covered the spread in just two of his last 11 games against teams with a winning record, this is a tricky situational spot for Detroit.

The 49ers have nothing to lose, while Detroit would still clinch the NFC North even if it loses this week but beats Minnesota in the season finale.

Lions vs. 49ers player prop

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Brock Purdy Over 20.5 completions (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Detroit’s plethora of defensive injuries has left it vulnerable against the pass.

Over the last four weeks, the Lions rank 30th against the pass while allowing a ton of explosive plays as the league’s worst pass defense in terms of yards allowed per completion (14.3).

Detroit’s pressure is not getting to opposing quarterbacks, leaving it vulnerable in the secondary. The Lions have blitzed at the third-highest rate since Week 13 but rank 19th in pressure rate in that span.

Detroit will likely continue to blitz at a high rate to challenge a 49ers offensive line playing without two starters, Trent Williams and Aaron Banks. But I expect Kyle Shanahan to use the Lions’ aggressiveness against them, drawing up several high-percentage throws for Purdy.

All of our top sports betting sites are in unison with an O/U of 20.5, but the Over at BetMGM is juiced as high as -135, meaning we are getting great value at FanDuel. Through FanDuel’s -114 odds, a $10 winning wager would profit $8.77.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Lions vs. 49ers odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Lions vs. 49ers injuries

Monday Night Football game info

• Matchup: Lions vs. 49ers
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
• How to watch: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
• Weather: 44 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph SE
• Favorite: Lions -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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