Lamar Jackson MNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds
Last Updated: October 21, 2024 9:06 AM EDT • 4 min 13 sec read.
Two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson leads his Baltimore Ravens into a Monday Night Football matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as road favorites at Raymond James Stadium.
- The Ravens have won four straight games after an 0-2 start, marking their sixth straight season with a win streak of at least four games
- Jackson is 22-1 straight-up in his career against NFC opponents
- The QB is climbing up the NFL MVP odds leaderboard after putting together several impressive statistical games during the winning streak
My Lamar Jackson MNF player prop bets based on the Monday Night Football odds call for another efficient passing day from the quarterback, and a quieter day with his legs. For more on this game, be sure to check out our Ravens vs. Buccaneers prediction and Ravens vs. Buccaneers MNF prop bets.
We also have a double dose of NFL action on Monday night, and we did a deep dive into the late game with our Chargers vs. Cardinals prediction and Cardinals vs. Chargers MNF prop bets.
Lamar Jackson prop predictions for Monday Night Football
- Lamar Jackson Over 18.5 completions () ⭐⭐⭐
- Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Lamar Jackson Under 51.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Lamar Jackson player props
NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Lamar Jackson Over 18.5 completions (-120) ⭐⭐⭐
Which side of Jackson’s O/U of completions you are on depends heavily on if you think this game will remain competitive.
Jackson had 13 or fewer completions in games against Buffalo and Dallas in which the Ravens held three-touchdown leads, and he completed 20 or more passes in all other four games, which were each decided by seven or fewer points.
Baltimore is a 3.5-point road favorite in this matchup, and Jackson loves playing on Monday Night Football. Per ESPN Research, of the 45 quarterbacks since 2006 who have made five-plus starts on MNF, Jackson’s 85.4 Total QBR is the highest.
I am backing this Over at FanDuel, even with the steeper -120 juice, as all other best sports betting sites have an O/U of 19.5. A $10 winning wager would pay out $18.33.
Best odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.55%
New customers only. Deposit min. $5. Place first bet of $5+ and get $200 in Bonus Bets (within 72 hours).
Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+102) ⭐⭐⭐
Prime-time Unders are 81-52-1 over the last three seasons, but I expect Jackson and the NFL’s best scoring offense to put up points in this matchup.
This is only a three-star play as Jackson has a touchdown pass in every game this season, but multiple touchdown passes in just two of six. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has allowed just one quarterback to throw two-plus touchdown passes.
The Buccaneers’ success has a lot to do with the quarterbacks they've faced. They squared off with three rookies through the first six weeks, along with a struggling Jalen Hurts who was without both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Despite the soft schedule from a quarterback perspective, Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom 10 in receiving yards allowed per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Jackson is also playing ahead of last year’s MVP pace. He entered last week against the Commanders averaging a better success rate and expected points added per play from last year’s MVP campaign, and he then turned in a performance that ranked in the 91st percentile or better in both EPA and success rate per dropback.
I would likely lay off this prop if I wasn’t getting plus-money odds, but I am jumping at the +102 odds at FanDuel, as other best sports betting apps are juiced as high as -110 (carrying a 52.38% implied probability) to back the Over.
Phil Wood thinks the opposing quarterback will lead plenty of scoring too in his Baker Mayfield MNF prop bets.
Best odds: +102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 49.50%
Lamar Jackson Under 51.5 rushing yards (-106) ⭐⭐⭐
The Buccaneers have had plenty of practice defending running quarterbacks thus far, as they have faced Jayden Daniels (88 rushing yards), Bo Nix (47), Jalen Hurts (20), and Spencer Rattler (27).
Though Daniels’ 88 rushing yards does not bode well for Tampa Bay’s chances of success for slowing down Jackson, I believe the extra day to prepare along with how much they have seen mobile quarterbacks this year will have Todd Bowles’ staff coming up with a great plan to keep Jackson in the pocket.
Jackson is the QB1 in fantasy overall for the last month, averaging over 25 fantasy points per game. And while that would not be possible without elite rushing numbers, I am banking on his back-to-back 300-yard passing games will make him a more pass-happy quarterback in this matchup.
The Under is juiced as high as -115 at BetMGM, so I am placing my $10 wager at Caesars, where I would net $9.43 in profits if Jackson runs for 51 or fewer yards.
Best odds: -106 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.46%
New users only. Must use promo code. Min. $10 deposit. Max. additional winnings $2.5K per token. Tokens expire in 14 days. Void where prohibited. .
Ravens vs. Buccaneers odds
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Ravens vs. Buccaneers
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
- How to watch: ESPN, ABC
- Weather: 79 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph NE
- Favorite: Ravens -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
NFL betting odds pages
Here are our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBR1550 | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
Mike Spector