Justin Herbert SNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds vs. Chiefs

Justin Herbert will look to lead his Los Angeles Chargers to a Sunday Night Football win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

The latest Sunday Night Football odds have the Chiefs, among the Super Bowl odds front-runners, favored by four points in their 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock) home game against the Chargers.

Herbert threw for just 179 yards and one touchdown, with the Chargers mustering just 10 points the first time he met the Chiefs this season.

However, the Chiefs’ secondary has struggled in recent weeks, and in our Herbert SNF player prop bets we expect the Chargers' quarterback to take advantage. The below picks are part of our SNF coverage, including the Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction and the Chargers vs. Chiefs player props.  

Justin Herbert prop predictions for Sunday Night Football

NFL odds as of Sunday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Justin Herbert Over 229.5 passing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Justin Herbert Over 20.5 completions (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Justin Herbert Over 1.5 passing touchdowns () ⭐⭐⭐

Justin Herbert player props

NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Justin Herbert Over 229.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Earlier this week, when picking the best Chargers vs. Chiefs SNF prop bets, I selected Herbert to throw for more than 231.5 passing yards. Since writing that article, his total has actually dropped slightly at BetMGM, adding even more appeal.

Herbert has been inconsistent with his yardage this season, throwing for fewer than 200 yards six times. But he’s also thrown for more than 229 yards in five games and is about to enter a matchup that has become increasingly favorable.

The Chiefs have allowed over 260 passing yards in three consecutive games. Two of the three quarterbacks who eclipsed 260 yards were Bryce Young and Aidan O’Connell. While the Chargers like to run the ball, the absence of JK Dobbins will loom large against the third-ranked run defense. That means more attempts from Herbert, and he’ll convert them in this matchup.

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Justin Herbert Over 20.5 completions (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Oddsmakers are setting a trap for bettors with this line. Herbert has only thrown 21 or more passes in three games this season. Only one of those contests, when he set a season-high of 27 against the Arizona Cardinals, saw him throw more than 21 passes.

While this seems like an easy Under, it makes sense that Herbert would go well above his season average in a game where his team is a four-point underdog. The Chiefs are allowing 21.8 completions per game; over the last three weeks, they’re allowing 23.7.

The Chiefs also have a great run defense, making it hard for Gus Edwards to succeed on the ground. Because of this, the Chargers will be more one-dimensional than they usually are, which means more opportunities for Herbert.

Four of our best NFL prop betting sites have this total set at 20.5, and three have the price set at -115.

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Justin Herbert Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+165) ⭐⭐⭐

Herbert has only thrown multiple touchdown passes in four games this season, and he’s yet to throw more than two. That's directly contrasts Patrick Mahomes, who threw three touchdown passes in three of the lat five games. We go into more depth with our Mahomes SNF prop picks. 

However, the +165 price at DraftKings for Herbert to throw at least two touchdown passes makes it one of the three best plays.

The Chiefs are allowing 1.4 passing touchdowns per game, and they gave up three to Bryce Young and Aidan O’Connell over the last two weeks. Dobbins has eight of the 12 rushing touchdowns this season, so without him, the scoring will likely fall on Herbert's shoulders.

Herbert has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of eight games against the Chiefs. So even though the Chiefs see him more than most quarterbacks, Herbert will likely have the advantage against one of the weakest iterations of this defense he has seen.

Best odds: +165 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%

Justin Herbert player prop odds

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