Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson: Who is the Real NFL MVP?

One of the best NFL MVP races in league history is coming down to the final week.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has led the NFL MVP odds for much of the 2024 season, but a dip in production paired with Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson's brilliant showing of late has the reigning award winner chasing down the MVP favorite heading into Week 18.

So which player deserves to win the 2024 NFL MVP award, and which one should you bet on heading into the final week? We're breaking it down from every angle with our Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson comparison and NFL MVP prediction.

NFL MVP odds entering Week 18

Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson: Tale of the tape

Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson stats breakdown 2024

Updated stats courtesy of after Week 17.

Passing

Historically, the player who leads the NFL in key passing metrics like touchdowns and QBR wins the MVP award. That has made this year's race particularly confounding given that Jackson has been at or near the top of the leaderboard all season long.

Entering Week 18, the Ravens QB leads the NFL in QBR (77.6) and passing TD rate (8.8%), just as he did when he won his first MVP award in 2019. He's also pacing the field in passer rating (121.6) and yards per attempt (8.9), and his adjusted net yards per attempt (9.48) - a catch-all metric for passing success - is well ahead of third-place Allen (7.95).

Jackson also ranks in the top 10 in completion rate (67.9%), while Allen ranks outside the top 20 (63.8%) even as his interceptions have dipped. In fact, it's hard to find a stat in which Allen has the edge through the air even though he's thrown it 41 more times.

Both quarterbacks have made incredible plays with their arm, but the reigning MVP winner has been the better passer between the two this season.

Edge: Lamar Jackson

Rushing

This feels like the trickiest category of them all, as it depends on what you value from your quarterback and how you measure their production as a rusher.

Jackson is known as the more dynamic runner - he set the all-time mark for rushing yards by a quarterback (6,110) in Week 17 - and he's already rushed for more yards this season (852) than he did in his MVP-winning campaign last year (821). He also leads the NFL in yards per carry (6.6) for the second consecutive season and fourth time in his career.

Yet Allen is the one who has the edge in rushing touchdowns (12) and first downs (51) despite 28 fewer carries through 16 starts. Half of his 102 rushes have resulted in a first down, and he leads the NFL in rushing success rate (63.9%) and PFF rushing grade (94).

Here's the dilemma: nearly half of those Allen scores have come at the goal line in "tush push" fashion. That's a credit to his running back-like stature, but it becomes a little less impressive after watching players like Kenny Pickett score the same way on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Jackson has been the more explosive rusher with eight runs of 20-plus yards - tied for seventh among all players - and his dual-threat ability has been a catalyst for Derrick Henry's monster effort in the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds race.

By my estimation, the Ravens QB has created more relative value with his legs than you'd expect from a replacement player, and that's ultimately what the MVP award is all about. We're giving this one to Jackson, but you can make a strong case for either player.

Edge: Lamar Jackson

Red zone

This is where Allen's rushing ability truly shines, though this category isn't the slam dunk you might expect given Jackson's sheer brilliance inside the 20-yard line.

Entering Week 18, Jackson leads the NFL in red-zone touchdown passes (29) while throwing just two interceptions on 61 such attempts. He ranks first in yards per attempt (6.0) and fourth in completion rate (68.9%) in the red zone, and he's scored three of his four rushing touchdowns in that area, as well.

Let me say something again from above: Jackson has attempted 61 passes inside the 20, and 29 of them have been touchdowns. Nobody else has come close to that efficiency.

Allen has made his mark in the red area, too. All but one of his 12 rushing touchdowns have come inside 20 yards, and he's added 20 passing touchdowns - including one to himself - with just one interception in that region of the field.

Yet he's completed fewer than 55% of his passes inside the 20, and he's been sacked seven times in that area, which is tied for the third-most by any passer. Even with all those tush-push scores for Allen, I just can't ignore how spectacular Jackson has been with his arm and his legs near the end zone.

Edge: Lamar Jackson

Turnovers

The crux of Allen's resurgence as the MVP favorite has been his ability to cut down on turnovers, which have plagued him throughout his seven-year career.

The 28-year-old passer has thrown just six interceptions through 16 games after throwing a career-worst 18 picks in 17 starts last year. He's also fumbled just five times (two lost), which would also be the fewest in his career after coughing it up seven times last season.

Still, it's hard to say that gives Allen a clear advantage when Jackson has even fewer interceptions (four) in his 16 starts, even with 10 fumbles (five lost) of his own.

According to , Jackson has been responsible for eight turnover-worthy plays with a 1.5% TWP rate. Allen had nearly doubled that with 15 TWP coming on 2.7% of his attempts entering Week 17. Jackson also has a lower interception rate (0.9%) than Allen (1.2%) even with his teammates dropping more passes than the Bills' receiving corps.

Here's the reality: Allen probably should have more turnovers than Jackson, but he doesn't, and the Bills' offense has committed the NFL's fewest giveaways (eight) to fuel their most efficient attack of the Allen era. This one goes to Buffalo's QB by a whisker.

Edge: Josh Allen

Quality of wins

Ironically, this is the clearest win for Allen despite losing his head-to-head matchup with Jackson when these MVP candidates dueled in a 35-10 Baltimore win in Week 4.

Since then, the Bills have vanquished the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions - who lead the latest Super Bowl odds entering Week 18 - while winning 10 of their last 11 games. Their only loss came in a 44-42 barnburner to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14, when Allen became the first player in NFL history with three passing and rushing TDs in a game.

Fittingly, the Ravens' best win came against Allen and Co. back in September, but they lost to the Chiefs in Week 1 and appeared outmatched against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13. Those are the only clear-cut contenders that Baltimore has faced this season.

Sometimes the MVP race is more about who you beat (and when you beat them) than how you perform across the entirety of a four-month schedule. That's one reason why Allen is the favorite in this race, and he easily earns the nod in this category.

Edge: Josh Allen

Consistency

You could argue about this one in any which way you please, and you'd probably have a worthwhile case. That's how special these two have been all season long.

Jackson has been a walking highlight reel since the opening week of the season, though his Week 11 clunker against the Pittsburgh Steelers nearly derailed his MVP candidacy entirely. He's bounced back with a stellar five-game run, combining for 16 touchdowns and one interception to put the Ravens in position to win the AFC North in Week 18.

Allen endured a tough start to the season, including that ugly loss in Baltimore, but he's settled into an efficient and consistent role for the Bills amid their torrid run over the last 11 weeks. After scoring three touchdowns on Sunday, he's tallied 18 over the last five weeks with just one interception to put the finishing touches on a potential MVP run.

If we're truly measuring the entire body of work including highs and lows, however, it's easier to find the winner here. Jackson has posted a passer rating below 100 just once in his last 14 starts; Allen has done so four times in his last eight games, and his two worst games by passer rating are both worse than Jackson's worst outing in Pittsburgh.

Edge: Lamar Jackson

Advanced stats

Both quarterbacks would be deserving MVP candidates in any other season, and their advanced stats tell the story of just how dominant they've been in 2024.

Let's start with Allen, who entered Week 17 with 34 big-time throws (BTT) and a 7.0% big-time throw rate. We're still waiting on data from Sunday, but it's safe to assume he'll lead the league in both categories after making throws like this against the New York Jets:

Allen also entered the week with the NFL's highest rushing grade (94), which would set a new record for the PFF era. Considering his elite and efficient passing numbers, it's a compelling case for the Bills star to win the first MVP award of his career.

Yet even with all that, Jackson ranks No. 1 by PFF's overall offense grade (93.5) and is tied with Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow - who is quietly not dead in this race - in passing grade (92.3). Allen ranks third and eighth, respectively, among full-time starters even with his aforementioned statistical feats.

Jackson also trails only Burrow in total expected points added (EPA) and ranks first in QBR (77.8) ahead of Allen (76.5), which is a stat that has strongly correlated with MVP winners in the past. He's also at the helm of the NFL's most efficient offense by EPA/play (0.21) and EPA/pass (0.40), though Buffalo ranks second in both metrics.

No matter how you slice it, this is a close race as far as the advanced metrics are concerned. But even those give the nod to Jackson entering the final week of the season.

Edge: Lamar Jackson

Supporting cast

This might be the biggest factor for Allen's MVP candidacy, and it's the best argument for overlooking Jackson's advantage in virtually every statistical metric - even if it's not the landslide some make it out to be.

Allen lost his favorite target in the offseason after the Bills traded away star wideout Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. The team's defense was also gutted in free agency to clear cap space for what was supposed to be a mini-rebuilding year in Buffalo.

Instead, Allen has led perhaps the worst roster of his career to a 12-3 record, which is on pace to tie the Bills' best mark since they drafted Allen in 2018. The emergence of running back James Cook and midseason trade for receiver Amari Cooper help matters, but the defense still ranks as a below-average unit despite the team's success to this point.

Meanwhile, Jackson is enjoying the best supporting cast of skill-position stars in his six years as a full-time starter. Henry has put together a sensational season in his Baltimore debut, and tight end Mark Andrews continues to shine as one of the best at his position.

The Ravens' offensive line has been awfully shaky at times this season, so Jackson's career-best campaign deserves credit beyond his circumstances, but Baltimore's defense has also played a key role in turning the season around. This one goes to Allen.

Edge: Josh Allen

Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson MVP-defining games

There's no way around it: Allen was responsible for the signature play of the 2024 NFL season, and it might be the most salient argument for why he remains the MVP favorite.

In the latest edition of one of the league's best rivalries, Allen put the team on his back in Week 11 against the Chiefs and scampered for a 26-yard touchdown on 4th-and-2 to ice the game. It vaulted him to favorite status in this race, and he hasn't looked back since.

Following a bye week, Allen threw a touchdown to himself in the snow against the San Francisco 49ers to further separate from the pack. Then he combined for six touchdowns in that record-setting loss against the Rams, and he downed the former title favorite Lions a week later to seemingly wrap up this race for good.

Yet Jackson has been stacking MVP performances all year - arguably in greater volume - to surpass even the most ridiculous highlights from his past award-winning campaigns.

Remember when he threw down Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard before slinging a dart to Isaiah Likely to spark a Week 5 comeback against his division rivals?

Jackson threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns in that wild overtime win. He tossed five TDs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football in Week 7, and he posted a perfect passer rating two weeks later against the Denver Broncos' elite defense.

And then there was his performance on Christmas Day, when he posted the fifth-highest QBR in NFL history (99.8) while toying with Houston Texans defenders for 50 minutes before the Ravens eventually called off the dogs early in the fourth quarter.

Let's be honest with ourselves: is this not what the MVP looks like?

Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson: Verdict

The market feels one way about this award. I feel the other way, and it seems that most of the NFL intelligentsia has come down on that side, as well.

Jackson has put together one of the best seasons by a quarterback in NFL history, and his play on the field is arguably even more impressive than his stats on paper. He's done it all behind an inconsistent offensive line for a team that has made a habit of blowing late leads, which is the only reason the Ravens have a worse record than the Bills.

Let's take away "4th-and-2" for a second. What is Allen's case to win this award over Jackson besides the fact that he hasn't won it before? Aside from that one signature play and a few goal-line scores, what has he done in 2024 that his counterpart has not matched or exceeded?

Allen has a worse supporting cast, and he's still accumulated a higher volume of big-time throws. That matters in a race about value added. But virtually every metric suggests Jackson has provided more value for his team on a per-play and cumulative basis, and he's made a dozen key plays this season that are truly "one-of-one" type of efforts.

It feels like voter fatigue is playing a bigger role here than most would like to admit. Like Tony Romo said late in Sunday's Bills-Jets broadcast, if Allen had previously won two MVP awards and Jackson had none, would this even be a debate?

That's why Jackson would get my vote if the season ended today. And with one week left in the regular season, I don't see that changing after Week 18.

My best NFL MVP Pick: Lamar Jackson

The mind-boggling highlight plays, the eye-popping counting stats, the ridiculous advanced metrics ... let me count the ways why Jackson deserves a third MVP trophy.

I'll admit my own biases: I've watched nearly every snap of Jackson's career, and I bet on him with conviction to win MVP ahead of the 2019 and 2023 seasons. I did not bet on him this season because I was convinced voters wouldn't reward him in consecutive years even if he produced another historic campaign.

That preseason hunch may prove correct, after all. But with such a sterling resume and a groundswell of support for the two-time winner to add another trophy to the mantle, I have a hard time not buying into the value at these +275 odds at Caesars, which would turn a $100 bet into a $275 profit if voters come to their senses next week.

The only other bet I'd make in this market - and one I did make on Saturday night - is Burrow to win MVP at +2500 odds. If the Bengals make the postseason, he'll have one heck of an argument as the league leader in the only stats Jackson doesn't lead.

In the end, Allen might prove all of this moot. He's the favorite for a reason. But this feels much closer to a 50/50 race than not, so grab these plus-money odds while you can and hope that one of the best seasons we've ever seen results in the appropriate hardware.

Best odds: | Implied probability: 26.67%

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code| Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)