Josh Allen Player Prop Picks, Predictions & Best Bets vs. Lions

After finishing second, third and fifth in the NFL MVP race over the past four years, Josh Allen has the inside track on the coveted award in 2024.

On the heels of last week’s six-touchdown performance (three rushing, three passing) in Los Angeles, the Buffalo Bills quarterback enters Week 15 as a nearly -400 favorite via the 2024-25 MVP odds.

Buffalo will need another Herculean effort from its superstar signal-caller Sunday when it visits Ford Field as 2.5-point underdogs against the 12-1 Super Bowl odds favorite Detroit Lions (4:25 p.m., CBS.)

And that's exactly what we're projecting with our Allen player prop picks, backing him to score a touchdown while adding two more Overs to his resume. The below picks are part of our Bills vs. Lions coverage, including the Bills vs. Lions player props. 

Josh Allen player prop picks Week 15

NFL odds as of Sunday. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Josh Allen touchdown prediction: Over 0.5 Touchdown () ⭐⭐⭐
• Josh Allen prop pick: Over 256.5 Passing Yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Josh Allen prop pick: Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Josh Allen touchdown prediction vs. Lions

Josh Allen Over 0.5 Touchdown (+120) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 45.45%

After rushing for just three touchdowns in Buffalo’s first nine games, Allen’s been calling his own number more often in the red zone lately, scoring six majors in the Bills’ last four.

He’ll likely have to do so again versus Detroit, especially near the goal line. The Lions have allowed just 11 passing touchdowns all season but have shown vulnerability against scrambling quarterbacks, allowing an average of 6.6 yards per carry to opposing signal-callers this season.

I estimate Allen’s chances of rushing for at least one touchdown to be in the 50/50 range, so getting this prop at plus money offers excellent value. FanDuel’s +120 was the best price available at our best NFL betting sites, but you can also receive +110 at DraftKings.

Bills vs. Lions picks

• Bills vs. Lions prediction
• Bills vs. Lions player prop picks
• Bills vs. Lions parlay picks
• Bills vs. Lions touchdown picks
• Josh Allen player prop picks

Josh Allen predictions

NFL picks made Sunday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Josh Allen prop pick: Over 256.5 Passing Yards ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%

Some of his recent success can be attributed to the chemistry he’s built with midseason acquisition Amari Cooper, who pulled in six balls for 95 yards last week versus the Rams.

Detroit hasn’t allowed more than 256 passing yards in five straight games and hasn’t given up 300 yards through the air since Week 4. However, those numbers are a bit skewed by the caliber of quarterbacks faced during that stretch: Mac Jones, Anthony Richardson and Mason Rudolph, to name a few. Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, and Jordan Love have all thrown for 259 or more against Detroit this season.

With rookie Keon Coleman back from injury and tight end Dalton Kincaid potentially returning as well, Allen and the Bills’ passing offense should be able to move the ball through the air effectively.

Josh Allen prop pick: Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Allen has made big plays with his legs all season, running for 40 first downs — the second-most in the league. He’s also posted runs of 14 yards or more in four of the Bills’ last five games, again with the exception coming in the snow two weeks ago against the 49ers.

As mentioned in Allen’s touchdown prop, the Lions have been susceptible to mobile quarterbacks, a trend that dates back several seasons in coordinator Aaron Glenn’s man-heavy scheme. Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, and Sam Darnold all ran for at least 38 yards versus the Lions this year.

A winning $10 bet will profit $8.70.

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