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Jordan Love TNF Player Prop Picks: Touchdown Predictions & Odds vs. Lions

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 5, 2024 8:22 AM EST • 3 min 27 sec read.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) looks to throw a pass as we make our Thursday Night Football player prop picks.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) looks to throw a pass. Photo by Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images.

Jordan Love leads the Green Bay Packers into Ford Field as road underdogs in a massive Thursday Night Football matchup with the Detroit Lions.

  • Love is one of seven quarterbacks with 20 passing touchdowns thus far
  • Love is 4-0 in his last four starts indoors
  • Green Bay is just 1-5 in its last six games against Detroit

Our Thursday Night Football odds have the Lions as anywhere from 3-to-4-point home favorites with an O/U of 51.5 (the highest of any game in Week 14 at the best NFL betting sites). We use that knowledge to make our top Jordan Love TNF player prop picks.

Jordan Love prop predictions for Thursday Night Football

NFL odds as of Thursday. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

  • Jordan Love touchdown prediction: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Jordan Love prop picks: Over 32.5 passing attempts (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Jordan Love prop picks: Under 0.5 interceptions (+128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Jordan Love player prop picks

NFL picks made Thursday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jordan Love Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-128) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -128 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.14%

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Jordan Love has thrown more than one touchdown just once in four career starts against the Lions. But the O/U of 51.5 points has me believing this will be a shootout.

Love’s 129.2 passer rating was the second-best among all quarterbacks in Week 13, and he has recorded a passer rating of 100 or better in 13 of his last 22 starts (including playoffs). In Love’s last four indoor games, he has completed 68.8% of his passes for 1,020 yards, recorded an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and racked up a 126.3 quarterback rating.

This is a three-star play, as the Packers should score in this matchup, given that they lead the NFL in EPA per drive over the last four games.

Some may find the -128 odds too steep to play this wager, but FanDuel's odds are a steal compared to the competing sportsbooks. The number is juiced as low as -150 at BetMGM and DraftKings (carrying a 60% implied probability).

Jordan Love Over 32.5 passing attempts (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.55%

In the two games before their Thanksgiving game, the Lions generated the sixth-lowest pressure rate in the league. Though they followed that up by sacking Caleb Williams five times, the rookie is one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the league, while Love has taken just 10 sacks this season.

In Green Bay’s three losses this year, Love has attempted 34, 39 (against the Lions), and 54 passes. Detroit allows 36.3 pass attempts per game, which increases to 38.3 at home. The game script could dictate another pass-heavy game from Love since no team has spent more time leading than the Lions since Week 6.

This line is up from a low of 31.5 earlier in the week. But FanDuel remains the only one of the best sports betting sites offering an O/U of 32.5, as all other competing sportsbooks are one higher at 33.5. This pick is in line with one of Philip Wood's favorite Packers vs. Lions TNF player props.

Jordan Love Under 0.5 interceptions (+128) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +128 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 43.86%

Dating back to the playoffs last year, Love had thrown an interception in nine consecutive games. That included the Week 9 loss to the Lions, when Love went 3-for-10 passing for 24 yards and an interception on 11 dropbacks when blitzed by Detroit.

However, this play is worth a flier with plus-money odds on the Under. Love has gone two consecutive games without an interception. Love has a 68.6% completion percentage, an 11:1 TD-INT ratio, and a 107.4 passer rating in December throughout his career.

The best value for this wager is again at FanDuel, as it is one of the only top NFL prop betting sites offering better than +120 odds. If Love were to finish without an interception, a $10 winning wager would net $12.80 in profits.

Our Packers vs. Lions TNF prediction expects Love to play a big role in the game's outcome, as does our Packers vs. Lions parlay picks.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”