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Joe Burrow Player Prop Picks, Predictions & Best Bets vs. Steelers

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 4, 2025 11:00 AM EST • 3 min 20 sec read.

Despite a disappointing season, Joe Burrow and the Bengals still have a shot at the playoffs as we make our best Joe Burrow player props for Week 18 vs. Steelers.
Despite a disappointing season, Joe Burrow and the Bengals still have a shot at the playoffs. Photo by Sam Greene / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

Joe Burrow looks to help keep the Cincinnati Bengals’ playoff hopes alive with a win as short road favorites in the Week 18 Saturday night matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

  • Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards (4,641) and passing touchdowns (42)
  • The Steelers beat the Bengals 44-38 on the road in Week 13
  • Cincinnati needs a win and a losses by the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins to clinch a playoff spot 

As part of our Week 18 NFL predictions, my Joe Burrow player prop picks expect the Bengals quarterback to extend his streak of three-plus passing touchdowns to nine games on a day with a high passing volume.

The Bengals are two-point road favorites in a game with an O/U of 48 points. Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh is set for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+).

Joe Burrow player prop picks Week 18

NFL odds as of Friday. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

  • Joe Burrow prop pick: Over 2.5 passing touchdowns () ⭐⭐
  • Joe Burrow prop pick: Over 38.5 passing attempts (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Joe Burrow prop pick: Over 0.5 interceptions (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Joe Burrow predictions

NFL picks made Friday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Joe Burrow Over 2.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐

Best odds: +144 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 40.98%

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Given the regularity with which Burrow has thrown three or more touchdown passes, I expected his implied probability to do so in this matchup closer to 50% (at +100 odds). Therefore, I am compelled to back this Over again with two stars of confidence.

Burrow has thrown three or more touchdowns in eight consecutive games. 

It is clear Cincinnati wants to ride its quarterback’s arm to a potential playoff berth, as the team has just two rushing touchdowns compared to Burrow’s 12 passing touchdowns amid its four-game winning streak.

Pittsburgh has allowed eight passing touchdowns during its current three-game skid, and Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes each beat this Steelers defense for three passing scores in the last two weeks.

This is also worth a play, as Pittsburgh allows the fourth-highest passing touchdown rate at home (71%) compared to 50% on the road. Through FanDuel’s +144 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $14.40 in profits.

Joe Burrow Over 38.5 passing attempts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -128 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.14%

As of Friday morning, Bengals leading rusher Chase Brown had not practiced this week, putting his status for Saturday’s game in question with an ankle injury.

If Brown cannot play, Burrow should be chucking the ball all over the field, just as he did when he attempted 49 passes in last week’s win over the Denver Broncos. 

If you are wondering if that passing total was inflated because the game went to overtime, Burrow still attempted 41 passes in regulation and has exceeded this projected total in five of the last eight games.

Pittsburgh also racked up 520 yards of total offense when these teams met in Week 13, and another high-scoring affair will help inflate Burrow’s passing total.

Joe Burrow Over 0.5 interceptions ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -128 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.14%

The Steelers entered last week ranked 28th with 7.7 yards per pass attempt allowed over its previous five games, and have now allowed multiple touchdown passes in five straight.

However, while those numbers should call for a pass-heavy attack, that also opens up Burrow to be more susceptible to interceptions.

Despite its struggles in the last five games, Pittsburgh finished with at least one interception three times, including picking off Burrow once in Week 13. 

The Steelers’ 16 interceptions are tied for the third-most in the league, and they have picked off Burrow at least once in five consecutive matchups. Thus, this is a great complementary play to our Over for Burrow’s pass attempts

Bengals vs. Steelers expert picks

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”