Machibet BetJaguars vs. Chiefs Picks, Predictions Week 10: Jacksonville Being Overlooked as Road Underdog

Can Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne build on their victory over the Las Vegas Raiders and defeat the Kansas City Chiefs on the road? Find out with our Jaguars-Chiefs picks.

Following the news that Josh Allen suffered an injury, all attention is focused on the Chiefs, as Patrick Mahomes is now the favorite to win the NFL MVP award, and the door is opening for the Chiefs to capture the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

However, are we overlooking the Jaguars due to all the attention focused on the Chiefs?

Here are our best picks and predictions for the Week 10 matchup between the Jaguars and Chiefs (odds via PointsBet and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out all of our NFL picks for Week 10, along with our best bets and touchdown scorer props.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Game Info

Date: Sunday, Nov. 13, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Weather: 38 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 7-mph SE wind

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds Analysis

The Chiefs opened as 9.5-point favorites, and we have seen this line briefly touch Chiefs -10 on several occasions. Upon reaching Chiefs -10, the line did not stay there for long and was immediately bet down to Chiefs -9.5.

There was an opening total of 49, but we are now seeing a consensus of 50.5 across the board. As 57% of the bets are on the Over, I do not expect this line to return to the opening number of 49.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Picks

Jaguars vs. Chiefs ATS Pick

Jaguars +9.5 (-105) ★★★★

During Sunday Night Football, when the Tennessee Titans almost upset the Kansas City Chiefs, it seemed as though we immediately credited the former. However, might we be overvaluing the Chiefs?

The Chiefs almost lost to Malik Willis and the Titans, were down 17-0 at home to the Raiders (who are awful), and lost to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3. We may have an inaccurate perception of how good the Jaguars and Chiefs are based on their records.

I make the Jaguars as 7.5-point road underdogs against the Chiefs on Sunday, which means I will no doubt be backing Jacksonville as a 9.5-point 'dog.

Some sportsbooks are offering increased juice on the Chiefs side of the spread, so if you are able to secure the Jaguars at +10, add another star to the value of this wager.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs O/U Pick

Over 50.5 (-107) ★★★

Etienne has become an absolute weapon for the Jaguars, accumulating over 100 yards rushing in each of his last three games along with four touchdowns.

While we know the Chiefs have one of the top offensive units in the NFL, the Jaguars are also putting up impressive numbers despite facing tough defenses this season, such as the Eagles' and Broncos'. Also, the weather should not be an issue since it will be cold, but there will be no wind or precipitation.

I'm following the movement on the total here and playing the Over. In the past few days, the total has been raised from 49 to 50.5, and I agree with the adjustment.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Prop Pick

Lawrence anytime touchdown (+360) ★★★

If we are betting on the Jaguars to cover the 9.5-point spread and also playing the Over on the game total, it only makes sense to also wager on one of the Jaguars players to score a touchdown against the Chiefs.

We have witnessed several instances this season in which Lawrence has thrown an interception while basically on the goal line. None were more costly than the one he threw against the Broncos in Week 8.

With all of those costly interceptions in the back of Lawrence's mind, I think we will start to see Lawrence run the ball more often when he is near the goal line, especially since he is more than capable of doing so.

As I think the Jaguars will have plenty of red-zone opportunities, I favor the +360 price point on Lawrence to score an anytime touchdown.

Where to Bet on Jaguars-Chiefs Picks

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Jaguars-Chiefs picks made 11/10/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET

Written By:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at 520ccc.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.