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Giants vs. Cowboys Prediction, Picks & Best Bets Today: NFL Thanksgiving

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 28, 2024 1:30 PM EST • 4 min 31 sec read.

New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers makes a diving catch against the Washington Commanders. We're backing Nabers in our Giants vs. Cowboys prediction.
New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers makes a diving catch against the Washington Commanders. Photo by Julian Leshay Guadalupe/NorthJersey.com/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

It's an NFC East battle on Thanksgiving as the Dallas Cowboys host the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium for a 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.

  • Our Giants vs. Cowboys prediction is taking New York as a 3.5-point underdog as part of our NFL Thanksgiving picks
  • The Cowboys' Super Bowl odds have plummeted after an ugly start to the season
  • In one of three games that are part of of our Week 13 NFL predictions for Thanksgiving, we think a Giants rookie is poised for a big outing

Our Gabe Henderson offers more insight on this matchup with his Giants vs. Cowboys player prop bets.

Giants vs. Cowboys betting splits: Thanksgiving

The Cowboys opened as 3.5-point favorites across most of our best sportsbooks, and we've seen minimal movement ahead of kickoff this afternoon.

Dallas remains a 3.5-point favorite at most of our sportsbooks, with a whopping 76% of the money backing the Cowboys to cover. Just 24% of bettors are taking the Giants.

The total is just 37.5 after opening at 39.5 earlier in the week.

Giants vs. Cowboys predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Giants +3.5 () vs. Cowboys ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Malik Nabers Over 53.5 receiving yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Giants vs. Cowboys ATS prediction: NFL Thanksgiving

Giants to cover the spread: +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

Don’t overreact to last week

Early betting splits are more than 4-to-1 in favor of the Cowboys as part of bettors' NFL Week 13 predictions, which is unsurprising given how public of a team they are and the manner in which both teams executed last week.

Dallas scored 34 points against Washington, but two of its touchdowns came on kickoff returns. The Cowboys are not all of a sudden an offensive juggernaut, especially since they scored 16 total points in Cooper Rush’s first two starts this season.

New York hasn't led in any game since Week 5 and fell to 0-6 at home for the first time since 1974. The Giants had the look of a team last week that was content losing to improve their NFL draft odds and wind up with the top overall pick.

When handicapping this game, New York’s motivation level has to be among the biggest keys to consider. I expect a much more spirited effort away from the noise of a fan base that has turned sour.

That's especially true since another uninspired performance on national television could spell doom for the tenures of head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen - with some calling for their jobs already.

Dallas struggling at home

The Cowboys’ -118 point differential at AT&T Stadium is the third-worst in NFL history through a team’s first five home games, trailing only the 2013 Jaguars (-123) and the 1966 Falcons (-119).

Prior to Dallas’ win last week, it was outscored by 102 points in its previous five games overall. And now all of a sudden the Cowboys are staring at issues with their kicking game after Brandon Aubrey missed two field goals last week.

Those misses could be in the back of his mind this week. In a game with a spread just north of a field goal, those points matter.

History against Cowboys on Thanksgiving

Dallas ended a four-year cover-less streak on Thanksgiving with a 45-10 win over Washington last year. But Dallas is now just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 Thanksgiving games, failing to cover by more than nine points on average in those games.

The Cowboys also have not won and covered on Thanksgiving games in back-to-back years since 2008-09.

I would not put any Giants backers off waiting to get their wagers in until closer to kickoff, as the line had reached +4 across our best sportsbooks earlier in the week. 

While I would pass at +3 or lower, I am still playing this at +3.5 at BetMGM, which is offering -110 odds with a winning $10 wager returning a $9.09 profit.

Giants vs. Cowboys best bet

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Malik Nabers Over 62.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

Nabers' production has been trending down amid New York’s quarterback struggles. After averaging 22.9 fantasy points per game through his first four games in the league, that points per game average has dropped to 12.1 over the last five.

However, this is still a confident four-star play as he has cleared this projected twice in that poor five-game stretch. He's also still seeing eight or more targets in every game except for his seven targets in his first-ever NFL game.

The area to do damage against Dallas’ secondary is on the perimeter, as the Cowboys entered last week ranked in the bottom seven in receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Nabers entered last week with a 33.8% target share, 49.5% air-yard share, and 43.7% first-read share. And while much of that came with Daniel Jones under center, he still managed to haul in six of his nine targets for 64 yards from Tommy DeVito last week. 

Nabers’ line was as low as 53.5 on Tuesday afternoon, but the increase in the total could possibly be based on the speculation that Drew Lock could start if DeVito is ruled out with a forearm injury. 

bet365 is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering standard -110 juice to back the Over, as Caesars has the Over juiced as high as -128.

Giants vs. Cowboys odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Giants vs. Cowboys live odds

Giants vs. Cowboys opening odds:

  • Giants: +3.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
  • Cowboys: -3.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

Giants vs. Cowboys game info

  • When: Thursday, Nov. 28
  • Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET 
  • Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: Indoors

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NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”