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NFL Teams to Miss the Playoffs: 4 Playoff Predictions, Picks for 2023

Sean Tomlinson

Last Updated: September 1, 2023 4:24 PM EDT • 3 min 41 sec read.

With the regular season right around the corner, there’s still optimism for all 32 NFL teams and their fan bases, but they won’t all clinch a postseason berth. Here are our 2023 NFL playoff predictions for the teams to miss the playoffs based on the latest NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites.

Seven teams that made the postseason in 2021 missed the playoffs in 2022, including three division winners.

It's not hard to predict that a favorite will fall short in 2023, the trouble is identifying who that will be.

Here, four of our NFL analysts take a crack at their playoff predictions and make their picks on who will miss the playoffs this upcoming season.

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NFL teams to miss the playoffs picks

(Picks and odds from July 11)

WriterPicksOdds
Jon MetlerJets
Neil ParkerDolphins
Michael McClymontBrowns
Sean TomlinsonVikings

NFL teams to miss the playoffs predictions

New York Jets ()

The Carolina Panthers are my bet for making the playoffs, and the New York Jets are my bet for missing the playoffs. The irony of all this is that the Jets are ranked much higher in my power ratings than the Panthers, but their schedule makes a huge difference.

These bets would be very different if the Jets and Panthers swapped divisions. These bets are not intended to highlight which team is better, but rather where I can find a probability gap between where I believe a team should trade in order to make the playoffs and where the market has them listed.

It's not surprising that the market has overvalued the Jets compared to my numbers since the narrative of adding Aaron Rodgers will always be compelling. I have the Jets priced at -129 (8.8 projected wins) to miss the playoffs, yet Caesars offers a +125 for them to miss the playoffs. At several of our other top NFL betting sites, the Jets odds are much shorter, trading closer to +110.

 –– Jon Metler (SBR | )  

Editor’s note: Best odds for New York to miss the playoffs are as of Sept. 1.

Miami Dolphins ()

Head coach Mike McDaniel and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will be hard-pressed to lead the Miami Dolphins to the playoffs in 2023.

Listen, there is far more value to be plucked if you want to take a flier on a Super Bowl favorite to miss the playoffs, but I’m comfortable with targeting the Dolphins.

I’ve saddled them with a 54.9% chance of missing the postseason, which equates to -121 odds and returns a positive expected value of 7% compared to the -105 number through Caesars.

The AFC East goes toe-to-toe with the AFC West and NFC East this season, and I’m looking at the bookends of the Miami schedule as a pair of daunting tests.

First FourFinal Four
Week 1: @ Los Angeles ChargersWeek 15 vs. New York Jets
Week 2: @ New England PatriotsWeek 16 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Week 3: vs. Denver BroncosWeek 17: @ Baltimore Ravens
Week 4: @ Buffalo BillsWeek 18: vs. Buffalo Bills

Road games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles sandwiched in the middle are no cakewalks, either. Add No. 1 quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion history, and the Dolphins are going to have a tough time sneaking into the postseason for a second consecutive season.

–– Neil Parker (SBR | )  

Editor’s note: Best odds for Miami to miss the playoffs are as of Sept. 1.

Cleveland Browns ()

I'm surprised to see such optimism for the Cleveland Browns They're projected as a playoff contender and I just don't see it. Their playoff probability is just under 50%.

Sure, they'll have a full season of Deshaun Watson at quarterback, but he's now two years removed from when he led the league in passing in 2020. I believe the current version of Watson lies somewhere between his outstanding 2020 season and his poor statistical performance to end 2022.

Is a career-average Watson enough to vault the Browns from seven wins to the nine or 10 required to make the postseason? I'd bet against it. 

–– Michael McClymont  (SBR | )   

Editor’s note: Best odds for Cleveland to miss the playoffs are as of Sept. 1.

Minnesota Vikings ()

The Vikings are a classic regression candidate after a white-knuckle ride through 2022.

Sure, the end result was a tally in the win column, but too often the Vikings weren’t playing a convincing brand of football. They went 13-4 en route to winning the NFC North, but a staggering nine of those victories came by seven points or fewer, including five field-goal triumphs. The Vikings were frequently landing on the right side of a coin toss.

The team still boasts a decent offensive core that wide receiver Justin Jefferson leads, and now promising rookie Jordan Addison is alongside him. But Dalvin Cook is gone, and more importantly, a weak defense fresh off allowing 25.1 points per game (30th) is still positioned to be a creaky door as a unit.

The secondary is especially concerning after being pummeled to the tune of 265.6 yards allowed per contest. The team’s third-round pick Mehki Blackmon is intriguing at cornerback, but he won’t be able to lift the group to respectability.

Toss in the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears improving within the division, and the regression monster could swallow up the Vikings fast.

 –– Sean Tomlinson  (SBR | )   

Editor’s note: Best odds for Minnesota to miss the playoffs are as of Sept. 1.

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Written By:
Sean Tomlinson
Sean Tomlinson has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Sportsbook Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He's also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he'll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.