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Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction, SNF Picks & Odds Tonight: Sunday Night Football

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 29, 2024 5:07 PM EST • 4 min 27 sec read.

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson scores a touchdown against the New York Giants as we offer our Falcons vs. Commanders prediction.
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson scores a touchdown against the New York Giants. Photo by Brett Davis via Imagn Images

Michael Penix Jr. steps into a pressure cooker in his second game as a pro, leading the Atlanta Falcons into Northwest Stadium (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC and Peacock) to face the 10-5 Washington Commanders.

The Commanders enter the game as the 3.5-point underdogs via the Sunday Night Football odds as Penix looks to build on his debut victory over the New York Giants. Washington has the inside track to punch its first playoff ticket since 2020, needing a win in either of its last two games. 

Meanwhile, the Falcons must win to keep pace with Tampa Bay in the NFC South after the Buccaneers wiped the floor with Carolina earlier today. Our Falcons vs. Commanders prediction analyzes Atlanta's chances of covering the spread as underdogs. 

Falcons vs. Commanders updated betting info

The line has moved quite a bit for this one, with the Falcons going from 5-point to 3.5-point underdogs. The total decreased from 47.5 to 46.5, and Atlanta's moneyline odds shortened from +185 to +155. 

The Commanders are among the most-backed teams for Week 17, taking 74% of the bets and 68% of the handle. The below picks are part of our SNF coverage, including the Falcons vs. Commanders SNF prop bets. 

Best Falcons vs. Commanders picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Falcons +4.5 () vs. Commanders ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Bijan Robinson Over 18.5 rushing attempts () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Falcons vs. Commanders against the spread prediction: Sunday Night Football

Falcons to cover the spread: +4.5 (ODDS) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Selling high on the Commanders

Washington’s 10 wins are its most since 2012, and its 10-5 start is the franchise’s best since 1991. That said, this line feels slightly inflated as a direct response to the Commanders snapping last week's Eagles’ franchise record 10-game winning streak.

Washington held Philadelphia to 12 points over the final three quarters and out-scored the Eagles 22-6 in the fourth quarter to cap a thrilling comeback victory. But how would we view the Commanders this week if Jalen Hurts did not exit with a concussion?

Before Hurts’ injury, the Eagles were gashing the Commanders, as Saquon Barkley averaged 15.6 yards per rush in the first quarter.

But once Hurts left the game, it allowed Washington to load up to stop the run more, with Barkley averaging just 1.9 yards per carry over the final three quarters.

It is not like the Commanders played clean football, as they won despite committing five turnovers for the first time since 2002. Washington became the third team in the last 204 to commit five turnovers, trail by 14-plus points and still win.

Had Hurts remained in the game, we would likely be talking about a Commanders' blowout loss.

Commanders' offense has been one-dimensional

Jayden Daniels was heroic in last week’s win. The rookie became the third player in NFL history with at least five touchdown passes and 80 rushing yards in a single game.

Relying on that kind of output from Daniels to win games is not sustainable, and the Commanders have received poor production from their running backs recently.

Washington has averaged 2.6 yards per carry from its running backs over the last two weeks, and Atlanta is built to expose that weakness, ranking in the top 10 in yards per carry allowed (4.3).

Buying Penix in his first road start

Atlanta is a contrarian play, given that few will be excited to back Michael Penix Jr. in his second start and first road start. Granted, quarterbacks who played a night game within their first two career starts are 4-16 SU in the last 20 such instances.

But Penix ranked in the top nine of all quarterbacks in EPA/play and success rate last week, and Daniels, on the other side, is a rookie, too, albeit the shoo-in to win Offensive Rookie of the Year by the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.

Best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%

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Falcons vs. Commanders player prop

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Bijan Robinson Over 18.5 rushing attempts (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bijan Robinson has 885 rushing yards outside the tackles, the third-most in the league, per ESPN Research. He should continue that success against a Washington defense that allows the second-most yards per carry (5.7) on such runs.

The Commanders are a juicy matchup for the Falcons' lead running back, as they rank 25th in run defense DVOA and are in the bottom two in line yards allowed to running backs.

I wanted to back Robinson’s Over of 80.5 rushing yards, as he has run for 92 or more yards in four straight games and five of the last six. But with heavy rain in the forecast, the safer bet is for him to eclipse 18.5 rushing attempts amid a conservative game plan.

BetMGM is the only of the best sportsbooks offering plus-money odds for an O/U as low as 18.5. At +100 odds, any winning wager would return a profit that matched the original bet.

Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50%

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Falcons vs. Commanders odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Falcons vs. Commanders injuries

Sunday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Falcons vs. Commanders
  • Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Where: Northwest Stadium (Landover, Md.)
  • How to watch: NBC/Peacock
  • Weather: 48 degrees, 96% chance of precipitation, wind 10 mph SW
  • Favorite: Commanders -4 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”