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Falcons vs. Commanders Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for SNF Week 17

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: December 23, 2024 1:25 PM EST • 3 min 5 sec read.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. celebrates after a victory over the New York Giants, and we offer our Falcons vs. Commanders early picks.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. celebrates after a victory over the New York Giants. Photo by Brett Davis via Imagn Images.

Both the Washington Commanders (10-5) and Atlanta Falcons (8-7) hope to solidify their playoff positioning when they clash for what promises to be an exciting Sunday Night Football showdown in Week 17 at Northwest Stadium (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC).

Washington is trading as a big favorite by the NFL playoff odds, but the Falcons still have plenty of work to do as they battle with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South.

Our Falcons vs. Commanders early picks predict that Atlanta will be a tough out, even in the first road start for Michael Penix Jr.

My early Falcons vs. Commanders prediction: Falcons to cover the spread

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Falcons +5

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.4%

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Full credit to the Commanders for last week’s come-from-behind 36-33 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, thanks to five touchdown passes by Jayden Daniels. However, we can’t forget that Philadelphia led that game 14-0 in the first quarter before losing Jalen Hurts to a concussion.

Even with Hurts missing more than three quarters of the game, the Commanders trailed 27-14 going into the fourth and scored the winning touchdown with just six seconds remaining on the clock. It was Washington’s second straight win by a field goal or less, and the Commanders have won only one game by more than this point spread since Week 7.

Despite the fact that Penix is making his first road start for the Falcons, I’ll challenge Washington to win this game by a comfortable margin.

Atlanta’s defense has been a much-improved unit since its bye week, recording 16 sacks in four games and giving up 17 points or less in three of those four outings. Bijan Robinson should also be able to move the ball on the ground against a Commanders defense that allowed 211 rushing yards to Philly.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Falcons vs. Commanders live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 17 game.

Moneyline

  • Commanders best odds: | Implied probability: 65.8%
  • Falcons best odds: +180 via Caesars | Implied probability: 35.7%

Almost all of the best sports betting sites have Washington priced at -200 or shorter on the moneyline, but DraftKings is dealing Commanders backers a discount at -192.

Caesars is offering the best price on the underdog Falcons (+180), compared to +170 at BetMGM and +166 at FanDuel.

Spread

  • Commanders best odds: -4 (-110) via
  • Falcons best odds: +5 (-110) via Caesars

Washington was a 3.5-point favorite on the early lookahead lines but swelled out to -5 following its upset victory over the Eagles.

That point spread drew back to -4 at BetMGM and DraftKings, although Caesars still holds firm at +5 as of Monday afternoon.

Over/Under

There have been at least 60 points scored in three of Washington’s last four games, so don’t be surprised if we see this total drift a bit higher throughout the week, especially if news breaks that Atlanta No. 1 receiver Drake London will be in the lineup.

London exited the game against the Giants with a hamstring injury, but head coach Raheem Morris told reporters Sunday that the injury wasn’t too serious.

Falcons vs. Commanders injuries to watch

How to watch Falcons vs. Commanders

  • When: Sunday, Dec. 29
  • Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Where: Northwest Stadium (Landover, Md.)
  • How to watch: NBC
  • Weather: 40 degrees, 75% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph E
  • Favorite: Commanders (-4 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Connor Cooper
Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions on NFL and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.