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Eagles vs. Commanders Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: NFL Week 16

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 21, 2024 11:34 AM EST • 3 min 64 sec read.

Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin reacts to scoring a touchdown as we make our Eagles vs. Commanders prediction.
Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17) reacts to scoring a touchdown. Photo by Stephen Lew-Imagn Images.

The Philadelphia Eagles look to clinch another NFC East title when facing the Washington Commanders as road favorites in Week 16.

  • Philadelphia is in the middle of its longest winning streak (10 games) in franchise history
  • The Eagles will clinch the NFC East with a victory
  • Philadelphia beat Washington 26-18 at home on Thursday Night Football in Week 11

Our Eagles vs. Commanders prediction expects a different, more competitive Washington team to show up in this rematch. Our best sportsbooks list Philadelphia as 3.5-point favorites.

Eagles vs. Commanders predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Commanders +3.5 () vs. Eagles ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 receiving yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Eagles vs. Commanders ATS prediction: Week 16

Commanders to cover the spread: +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Jayden Daniels is healthier

Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels was in a tough spot in the first meeting between these teams. The rookie was playing on a short week less than a month after being knocked out of a game against Carolina with a rib injury.

While the competition has not been at Philadelphia’s level of late, Daniels looks healthier, like he is back in early-season form. Daniels has a completion percentage of 80% or better in the last two weeks, with a 5:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Daniels has also used his legs more effectively of late. He has run for 174 yards and two touchdowns over the last two games, and he has seven-plus carries in each of the last four.

Daniels is the third rookie in NFL history with 3,000-plus passing yards and 600 rushing yards, and I expect him to be more of a dual threat in this rematch after being limited to 18 rushing yards in the first meeting.

Marshon Lattimore is ready to make an impact

Marshon Lattimore made his Washington debut last week after the team acquired him at the trade deadline, although you wouldn’t know it by his stat sheet.

Lattimore did not allow a single target or reception and, ultimately, did not finish with any tackles since the ball was not thrown his way. His ball-hawking presence will play a huge role in defending A.J. Brown, who had five catches for 65 yards in the first meeting.

The Commanders will likely commit more defenders to stopping the run with Washington comfortable putting Lattimore on an island against Brown. That is necessary after allowing Saquon Barkley to run for 146 yards and two touchdowns last time out.

Going against the trends

The trends say the Eagles are the correct pick, as Jalen Hurts is 14-6 ATS as a favorite against teams over .500, while Jayden Daniels is 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. But any line above a field goal is worth a play on the underdogs, as this line is inflated after Washington’s scare against New Orleans.

I won't change my opinion on a Commanders team that was in a tough look-ahead spot to this game, after coming off a bye and facing a backup quarterback last week. DraftKings is the only one of the best sports betting apps charging standard juice to back Washington.

Eagles vs. Commanders best pick

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

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If Washington is going to succeed, it must get its wide receivers more involved in the passing game than in the first matchup. The only Commanders players with more than one reception in the first meeting were Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, and John Bates.

McLaurin was engulfed by Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, and he produced just one reception for 10 yards, but I have faith in a bounceback. 

McLaurin has five 100-yard games this season and is the first Washington player with 10 or more receiving touchdowns in a season since Jordan Reed in 2015. He entered last week with a 20.9% target share and 26.3% first-read share. McLaurinfollowed that up by tying a season-high with 10 targets last week.

The total for this wager is as high as 62.5 at BetMGM and bet365, so we are getting the best number and price by making this play at FanDuel. A $10 winning wager at -114 odds would return a profit of $8.77.

Eagles vs. Commanders odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Eagles vs. Commanders live odds

Eagles vs. Commanders opening odds:

  • Eagles: -4 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Commanders: +4 (-110 via BetMGM)

Eagles vs. Commanders injuries

Eagles vs. Commanders game info

  • When: Sunday, Dec. 22
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: Northwest Stadium (Landover, Md.)
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: 33 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph NNW
  • Favorite: Eagles -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”