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Dolphins vs. Rams Prediction, MNF Picks & Odds for Tonight

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 11, 2024 5:11 PM EST • 3 min 52 sec read.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford passes against the Seattle Seahawks as we offer our Dolphins vs. Rams prediction for MNF.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford passes against the Seattle Seahawks. Photo by Joe Nicholson via Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins enter MNF against the Los Angeles Rams on a three-game losing streak. While they've lost six of their last seven, there have been some promising signs in the recent defeats to the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills, in which they lost by a combined four points. ;

Things have improved significantly in Miami since the return of its franchise quarterback. Our Mike Spector looks at what to expect from him in our Tua Tagovailoa MNF player prop bets. 

The Rams, who've won three in a row, enter the game as 2.5-point favorites, according to the latest Monday Night Football odds. The line has moved slightly from -1.5 to -2.5 in the 24 hours leading up to the contest. 

Our MNF Dolphins vs. Rams prediction is part of our MNF coverage, including our Dolphins vs. Rams MNF prop bets, and Dolphins vs. Rams MNF parlay. 

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.

Best Dolphins vs. Rams picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Dolphins +1.5 () vs. Rams ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Jonnu Smith Over 3.5 receptions (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Dolphins vs. Rams against the spread prediction: Monday Night Football

Dolphins to cover the spread: + 1.5 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%

Luck factor should even out

The Rams outscored the Seahawks 23-7 in the second half and overtime last week, clawing out a victory in a game where they trailed 13-3 at halftime. However, a deeper dive suggests Los Angeles was fortunate to escape with the win.

From the point where the two teams were tied 13-13 with 11 minutes left, Seattle threw a pick-six when it had first-and-goal at the Rams’ six-yard line and threw another red zone interception after a blocked punt set the Seahawks up with great field position.

L.A.’s defense has scored in four consecutive games. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, the Rams would become the fifth team in NFL history to score a defensive touchdown in five straight games if they pull off the feat this week. 

Meanwhile, Miami has lost three straight one-score games (by a total of 10 points), including two straight losses on last-second field goals. The Dolphins also had more first downs, total yards, yards per play, a better red zone scoring average, and more time of possession than the Bills last week but still suffered a devastating road loss.

Dolphins can limit Rams strength

According to ESPN Research, Los Angeles is elite when targeting wide receivers, averaging the most passing yards per game and completions per game, and the fourth-most first downs per game in that split. 

However, Miami’s defense ranks in the top four in fewest passing yards per game and completions allowed, and the top eight in fewest first downs allowed per game when opponents target wide receivers.

Bucking Tua’s poor trends

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has lost five consecutive night starts and eight straight road games overall against teams that are .500 or better.

But this is also a fade of a Rams team coming off an overtime game without extended rest in between. Those teams have covered the spread in the following game 44% of the time over the last 10 seasons.

I would not put anyone off backing Miami’s +100 moneyline odds at BetMGM, the only one of our best sports betting apps offering plus-money odds for the Dolphins to win outright. But from an ATS perspective, FanDuel has the shortest price to take the underdogs, getting +1.5 points, while several other sportsbooks are a half-point lower at +1.

A winning $10 wager at FanDuel’s -118 odds would pay out $18.47.

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Dolphins vs. Rams player prop

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jonnu Smith Over 3.5 receptions (-113) ⭐⭐⭐

In an offense that features Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and the two-headed monster at running back of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, it is easy to forget about Smith.

The Dolphins tight end has gone over this projected receptions total in four consecutive games, averaging 5.25 catches per game. He also leads the team with 27 targets in that span.

This is a three-star play, as Smith faces a Rams defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and entered last week ranked dead-last (32nd) in DVOA defending the position.

While Smith’s +280 anytime touchdown odds at FanDuel were tempting given the tasty matchup, he has scored just one touchdown this season.

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%

Dolphins vs. Rams odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Monday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Dolphins vs. Rams
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Rams -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”