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Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 2: Can Pats Contain Tua and Tyreek?

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: September 17, 2023 4:37 PM EDT • 3 min 44 sec read.

Here are our top Dolphins vs. Patriots predictions based on the latest NFL odds from our best sports betting apps. Miami Dolphins star Tua Tagovailoa was as impressive as any quarterback in the league in Week 1, but New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick also has a proven track record of making life difficult for superstars at Gillette Stadium.

Good luck finding a better quarterback stat line in Week 1 than the numbers posted by Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who threw for 466 passing yards in the high-scoring victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

The New England Patriots, meanwhile, head into Week 2 following a hard-fought 25-20 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles despite holding the defending NFC champions to a trio of field goals in the second half.

Can the Dolphins put up video game numbers again on Sunday Night Football, or will New England head coach Bill Belichick lead the Patriots to 1-1 by slowing down the Miami offense.

Here is our best Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction along with all our NFL picks, NFL best bets and NFL upset picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction

Over 46.5 () ⭐⭐⭐

The Dolphins hung 36 points on the Chargers last week, and there was nothing fluky about it. Led by Tagovailoa's 466 passing yards, Miami’s 536 total offensive yards was the most by any team in Week 1 since 2019. The Phins also had an appetite for big plays, with zero of their seven scoring drives taking more than five minutes off the clock — music to an Over backer's ears.

As much as Belichick has a reputation for being a defensive genius, I’m not sure he can concoct something to shut down Dolphins running back Tyreek Hill and this Miami attack. He couldn't stop Hill in the past, allowing the speedster to score six touchdowns in six lifetime matchups versus the Patriots. Hill was in top form last week, hauling in 11 passes for 215 yards and two TDs.

Desperate to avoid an 0-2 start, New England knows it must put up points to beat the Dolphins. Miami’s defense was stout against the run last season but struggled badly in its first game under new coordinator Vic Fangio, allowing 234 yards and nearly six yards per carry. Meanwhile, Patriots QB Mac Jones threw for more than 300 yards in his first game in Bill O’Brien’s offense, but four turnovers prevented New England from scoring more than 20 points versus the Eagles.

This mid-40s total is more based on recent history between these AFC East rivals — four of the last six meetings went Under the total, with just one exceeding 44 points scored. It doesn’t reflect the current reality of both offenses. There's value in the Over all the way up to 48.5.

New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson rushing for Over 50.5 rushing yards is among our top Week 2 NFL player props. And, Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has evaluated the available markets to share his top Tua Tagovailoa player props and picks.

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Dolphins vs. Patriots best odds

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
O46.5 -110O46.5 -110O46.5 -110O46.5 -110
U46.5 -110U46.5 -110U46.5 -110U46.5 -110U46.5 -110

We’ve listed  as the best place to bet the Dolphins-Patriots Over, but you could find the same 46.5 -110 price at any of the other top best sports betting apps as well. 

Dolphins vs. Patriots odds

Dolphins vs. Patriots odds analysis

Miami opened as a 2-point favorite and drew immediate betting interest, going up to an expensive -2.5 by the middle of the week and even moving to the key number of -3 at some shops. Barring injuries, that’s probably as high as it gets before kickoff, even though the public should be eager to back Miami’s potent offense in a prime-time matchup.

The total hadn’t budged at most of the best sports betting sites since opening at 46.5. Top recommended books like Caesars and BetMGM hadn’t even shaded their juice one way or the other as of Friday morning.

Sunday Night Football game info

  • When: Sunday, Sept. 17 at 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Where: Gillette Stadium
  • How to watch: NBC
  • Weather: 57 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, 4-mph winds

Dolphins-Patriots prediction made Friday, 9/15/23 at 10:05 a.m. ET

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Written By:
Connor Cooper
Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions on NFL and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.