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Derrick Henry MNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 25, 2024 7:00 AM EST • 3 min 32 sec read.

Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) rushes as we look at the best Derrick Henry MNF player prop bets.
Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) rushes as Cincinnati Bengals safety Jordan Battle (27). Photo by Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images.

One of the NFL's leading rushers looks for another big game tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC) when the Baltimore Ravens travel to SoFi Stadium to face the Los Angeles Chargers.

Henry paced the NFL in rushing yards (1,185) before Saquon Barkley's big night on Sunday, but our Derrick Henry MNF player prop bets expect a tough outing for the Ravens star as we break down his Monday Night Football odds as part of our Ravens vs. Chargers prediction.

Derrick Henry prop predictions for Monday Night Football

NFL odds as of Sunday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

  • Derrick Henry touchdown pick: Henry to score the Ravens first touchdown () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Derrick Henry Under 84.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Derrick Henry Under 4.5 receiving yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Derrick Henry touchdown pick vs. Chargers

Derrick Henry: Ravens first team touchdown scorer (+187) ⭐⭐⭐

Henry is the second player in the Super Bowl odds era with a touchdown in each of his team’s first 11 games of a season. The other is O.J. Simpson, who accomplished that feat in 1975.

Unfortunately, that feat forced Henry’s anytime touchdown odds out of our price range, as he's dealing as short as -350 odds via BetMGM with an implied probability of 77.78% to score.

So we're turning to the first touchdown market, where Henry is a much more palatable +187 to open the Ravens' scoring tonight. That would turn a $10 bet into an $18.70 profit if he's the first player to find the end zone for Baltimore.

I would not make this play at anything +100 or worse, but these odds via bet365 are more than fair given Henry's 15 total touchdowns thus far.

Best odds: +187 via bet365 | Implied probability: 34.84%

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Derrick Henry player props

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Derrick Henry Under 84.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

One school of thought is that Ravens head coach John Harbaugh will force-feed his star running back early and often, given that Henry had 13 or fewer touches for the third time this season last week. For the record, Baltimore is unsurprisingly 0-3 in those games and 7-1 in all other contests.

My biggest reason for backing the Under on Henry’s rushing yards with three stars of confidence is Los Angeles’ ability to race out to early leads.

The Chargers defense has allowed seven or fewer points in the first half in all 10 games this season. Thus, if Los Angeles again turns in a stellar defensive performance and jumps out to an early lead, that should force Baltimore to abandon the running game more than it would like. 

All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with Henry’s O/U of 84.5 rushing yards, though bet365 is the only sportsbook charging better than -113 odds to back the Under, and a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.09.

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

Derrick Henry Under 4.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While Henry figures to go over this projected total if he records just one catch, he did not do so two weeks ago against the Bengals when his lone reception went for just three yards.

Henry barely averages one target per game, as he has seen 12 total targets through the first 11 games. He has gone without a catch three times and has recorded more than one reception just once, and he has stayed under this projected total in five of the last seven weeks.

Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over the last four weeks, so I expect Baltimore to attack the Chargers more on the perimeter in the passing game.

DraftKings has the Under juiced as high as -115, so the best price is at BetMGM.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”