NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds: Surtain With Inside Track on Watt Entering Week 18

Patrick Surtain II has enjoyed a phenomenal year for the Denver Broncos, and he's the Defensive Player of the Year odds (DPOY) favorite entering what should be a climactic Week 18 of the NFL season. 

T.J. Watt cemented himself atop the DPOY odds leaderboard after Aidan Hutchinson's Week 6 injury. The Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher remained the favorite for 11 weeks before Surtain leapfrogged him on the back of another sterling performance in a losing effort against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17.

The 24-year-old is looking to become the seventh cornerback to win Defensive Player of the Year and first since Stephon Gilmore in 2019. 

However, history suggests he'll have to lead his Broncos, among the best Super Bowl odds long shots, to the playoffs to be crowned. Here are the DPOY odds entering Week 18 via our best sportsbooks. 

NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds

Editor's note: All of our best NFL betting sites have now pulled this market, at least for now. Below are the closing odds.

NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds via our best NFL prop betting sites after Week 16. See our NFL player prop odds tool for the latest odds on any player.

Patrick Surtain, CB, Broncos (-200)

It's not easy for cornerbacks to make a lasting impression on DPOY decision-makers, but Surtain has done so thanks to excelling at one of the most challenging jobs: silencing the opposing team's marquee receivers. 

Some of his statistics are staggering, leaving no uncertainty about why he's in pole position.

Surtain has allowed a measly 33 catches for 279 yards all season, according to . Quarterbacks who target him don't escape unscathed. In fact, signal-callers have an average passer rating of 56 when they target him. 

That's a more abject passer rating than Anthony Richardson's league-worst 61.6. Surtain is ranked third among all cornerbacks in coverage via PFF (87.7), has four interceptions (a career high and tied for the fifth-most among cornerbacks), a 100-yard pick-six, and has buoyed a Broncos secondary to the fifth-best coverage unit.  

But here's the rub. No player has won DPOY when their team misses the playoffs.

By that logic, the Broncos must beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18 for Surtain to have a chance of following in Randy Gradishar's footsteps as the second Bronco to win the award. 

T.J. Watt, LB, Steelers (+180)

Watt is more valuable to his team than most, and his teammates agree. Watt was named the team's 2024 MVP for the fifth time, becoming the first player to win it for the Steelers five times. 

Watt was perceived to have a stranglehold on DPOY for an extended period. But he wasn't as dominant as the odds suggested, and he has struggled in recent weeks. In the last two games, he hasn't registered a sack and has mustered just two solo tackles, one tackle for a loss, and no quarterback hits. 

He also ranks just 65th in pressure rate among players who rush the quarterback at least 20 times per game. There are murmurs that the ankle injury he suffered against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15 still bothers him. 

Regardless, he's battled on and has a chance to make everything right with a prototypical, show-stopping outing against the in-form and desperate Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers have already qualified for the playoffs, so he's checked that requisite box. 

Watt has six forced fumbles (the NFL's most), is tied for fourth with 11.5 sacks, has the second-most tackles for a loss (19), and the fifth-most quarterback hits (27).

As those with an abundance of sacks usually receive preferential treatment where this award is concerned, a couple against Joe Burrow in the final week, along with a Broncos loss, may prove decisive. 

Kerby Joseph, S, Lions (+2000)

While anyone not named Watt or Surtain is an outsider in this race, Kerby Joseph deserves some praise and recognition for being one of the league's elite ballhawks. Joseph has nine picks and recaptured his interception lead by intercepting Brock Purdy twice in Week 17. 

Joseph had six interceptions in the first eight games but registered only one in the seven subsequent before his first multi-pick outing. However, a safety hasn't won this award since Troy Polamalu in 2010, and the 4.76% win probability associated with these odds reflects Joseph's minute chance of breaking that barren run. 

Myles Garrett, DE, Browns (+3000)

While Myles Garrett's stats speak volumes, his Cleveland Browns have allowed the eighth-most points per game (25), tied with the Las Vegas Raiders. 

Garrett's most formidable asset is his ability to hunt opposing quarterbacks, and there's nothing DPOY decision-makers love more. He has 14 sacks, tied for the most with the Cincinnati Bengals Trey Hendrickson.

His 14 sacks equal last season's output.

Garrett has the second-best defensive grade (92), the third-best pass-rush grade (93.2), the fourth-most quarterback hurries (52), the third-most quarterback hits (28), and the most tackles for a loss (21).

However, those glimmering stats are overshadowed by the Browns' woeful 3-13 record. 

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