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Cowboys vs. Steelers Prediction Tonight: Sunday Night Football Odds & SNF Picks

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 6, 2024 5:34 PM EDT • 4 min 63 sec read.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields (2) throws a pass as we offer our Cowboys vs. Steelers prediction for Sunday Night Football.
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields (2) throws a pass. Photo by Marc Lebryk / Imagn Images.

Sunday Night Football features a clash between two of the NFL's most storied franchises when the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) host the Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

  • The Steelers are short home favorites based on the Sunday Night Football odds after their first loss of the season
  • Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy is 0-4 in his career against the Steelers in the regular season
  • Pittsburgh has not had a losing season since 2003, the longest active streak in the league

Our Cowboys vs. Steelers prediction calls for the underdogs to cover the spread by the NFL Week 5 odds.  

Cowboys vs. Steelers odds movement: Sunday Night Football

The Cowboys opened as favorites by the lookahead line two weeks ago and were dealing at +1.5 earlier this week, but our best sportsbooks moved the line in favor Pittsburgh in the days before Sunday Night Football.

With hours before kickoff, the Steelers are consensus 2.5-point favorites, while the total is hovering around 44 across the board. That's well above the low of 41 earlier this week, though Over bettors can still attack 43.5 at some of our best sports betting apps.

Best Cowboys vs. Steelers picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Cowboys +2.5 () vs. Steelers ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Justin Fields Under 46.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cowboys vs. Steelers against the spread prediction

Best odds: -105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Cowboys to cover the spread: +2.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Based on the line movement throughout the week, it appears there is sharp action on both sides. The spread dipped as low as -1.5 before being bought back to its original number of -2.5 at many of our best NFL betting sites.

Despite Pittsburgh entering with the better record at 3-1, I am backing the more desperate Cowboys team to cover the small spread with our NFL Week 5 predictions. This mirrors Connor Cooper's Dallas selection from earlier in the week with his Cowboys vs. Steelers early picks.

The Steelers defense was exposed last week

Pittsburgh’s defense turned in a disappointing effort on many fronts last week. The Steelers allowed the Indianapolis Colts to convert 53.3% of their third downs. That was nearly double their season average entering the week.

Pittsburgh also allowed back-to-back touchdown drives to begin a game for the first time since Week 8 of 2022, and its pass defense was gashed for big plays. The Steelers allowed six plays of 15-plus yards after allowing 12 such plays through the first three weeks combined.

Pittsburgh is facing its best quarterback yet

The Steelers' defense was praised immensely as the biggest reason for the team’s fourth 3-0 start under Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh held the Los Angeles Chargers to minus-5 yards and zero points in the second half in a Week 3 win and became the first team to hold its first three opponents to 10 or fewer points since the 2009 Denver Broncos.

However, the Steelers were exposed by Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco last week. It should be put into perspective that Pittsburgh’s defensive success through the first three weeks came against Kirk Cousins in his first start since a torn Achilles, rookie Bo Nix, and a hobbled Justin Herbert who likely should have never been under center.

Facing Dak Prescott, who ranked in the top three of the league in completion percentage, TD-INT ratio, Total QBR, and off-target percentage last year will present a whole new issue.

The Steelers have started slow weekly

Pittsburgh’s 17-0 second-quarter deficit last week was the most recent slow start, but it has been an issue that has plagued the team all season.

Pittsburgh has trailed at the half in three of the first four games, and has averaged five points and 5.1 yards per play in the first half over the last two weeks. The Steelers have also not been able to sustain drives early, converting just one out of every three third downs in the first half.

This is a speculative three-star play, as Prescott is 1-8 ATS as an underdog in his last nine starts. However, opponents that have scored 20-plus points are 22-0 straight up in the last 22 games that Justin Fields has started. Dallas should have enough offense to reach that plateau under McCarthy, whose teams have covered 62% of their games on extended rest over the last 20 years.

The best number and price is found at DraftKings, as it is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a line of +2.5 at less than the standard -110 juice. A $10 winning wager at its -105 odds would pay out $19.52. 

Cowboys vs. Steelers player prop

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Justin Fields Under 46.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

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This is a contrarian play on many fronts given the statistics and trends leading into this game.

Fields’ three rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks are tied for the most in the NFL in that span. Meanwhile, Dallas has allowed the third-most rushing attempts to quarterbacks and has allowed a top-four fantasy quarterback in two of the previous three weeks.

However, this is a four-star play given the Cowboys’ injuries on the defensive line. Micah Parsons is doubtful with an ankle injury and DeMarcus Lawrence was placed on IR with a foot injury. With those two being the Cowboys’ best pass rushers, there will likely not be as much pressure on Fields, so he should be able to stand in the pocket and deliver throws on time instead of needing to escape pressure with his legs.

This line is as low as 45.5 at FanDuel, so Under backers should head to BetMGM to take advantage of the best price and number.

Fields might struggle overall as a rusher, but Rodrigo Villagomez thinks he can still find the end zone in his Justin Fields SNF player props. And on the opposite sideline, Phil Wood makes his best Dak Prescott SNF player prop bets.

Cowboys vs. Steelers odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Sunday Night Football game info

  • Matchup: Cowboys vs. Steelers
  • Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET 
  • Where: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
  • How to watch: NBC/Peacock
  • Weather: 66 degrees, 60% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph SW
  • Favorite: Steelers -2.5 (-120 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”