Cowboys vs. 49ers Prediction Tonight: Sunday Night Football Picks & SNF Odds

Two underperforming squads meet tonight at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday Night Football as the San Francisco 49ers (3-4) host the Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Levi's Stadium for this prime-time NFC clash on NBC.

• The Cowboys have lost their last three meetings with the 49ers since 2021 (including playoffs)
• San Francisco is 3-4 for the third time in the last four seasons, which includes suffering four 20-plus-point losses this campaign
• The 49ers were the NFC favorites before the season, but they're now getting a 44% chance to make the playoffs (eighth-best among NFC teams, according to ESPN Analytics)

The Sunday Night Football odds peg the 49ers as the superior team, but our Cowboys vs. 49ers prediction expects San Francisco’s mounting injuries to be too much to overcome.

Best Cowboys vs. 49ers picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Cowboys +4.5 () vs. 49ers ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Jordan Mason Over 17.5 rushing attempts () ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cowboys vs. 49ers against the spread prediction: Sunday Night Football

Cowboys to cover the spread: +4.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

The 49ers are dealing with potential absences at multiple skill positions. Brandon Aiyuk has already been lost for the year, Deebo Samuel battled pneumonia and was in the hospital earlier this week, and George Kittle is day-to-day with a foot sprain.

The tight end missed practice Wednesday before returning in a limited capacity the rest of the week. He seems to be trending toward playing, but Kittle might not be fully himself even if active. However, Christian McCaffrey remains out.

My confidence in Brock Purdy was already waning, as he's coming off his second career three-interception game. However, Purdy is still clinging to a top-10 spot in the NFL MVP odds.

But not benefitting from a healthy Aiyuk will be an issue. Purdy averaged 8.5 air yards per attempt last season when Aiyuk was on the field and 5.1 without him.

49ers' run defense is shaky

A solid rushing attack is key to Dallas’ success, as it's 0-3 when held under 3.4 yards per rush this season.

The 49ers' run defense ranks 26th in expected points added (EPA) per play. San Francisco is also susceptible to unconventional runs, as it allows an NFL-worst 14.3 yards per rush from wide receivers this season. That bodes well for the Cowboys to open the playbook with CeeDee Lamb.

San Francisco has also been shaky in short-yardage situations. Its power success rate, which measures conversion success on running situations in short-yardage situations on third and fourth down, ranks 25th (down 18 spots from last season).

Dallas’ big edge on special teams

The Cowboys hold a huge edge on special teams, ranking No. 1 in special teams DVOA while the 49ers sit 31st, according to . 

Dallas’ special teams also ranks first in field goals and kick returns, and third in punt returns. Meanwhile, San Francisco ranks 30th in kick returns and 26th in punt returns.

Not only have our best NFL prop betting sites not adjusted enough for all of San Francisco’s injuries, but Dallas enjoys a significant scheduling edge while coming off a bye week. Dak Prescott is 6-0 against the spread, with his team covering 12 of the last 15 games off extended rest since 2019.

The majority of our best NFL betting sites offer Dallas +4, so I'm comfortable paying up slightly for the extra half point. A $10 winning wager through FanDuel’s -115 odds pays out $18.70 as part of your NFL Week 8 predictions.

I also took this bet earlier in the week in my Cowboys vs. 49ers early picks.

Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%

Cowboys vs. 49ers player prop

Jordan Mason Over 17.5 rushing attempts (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I give my most confident five-star play, and my favorite play of the week, to Jordan Mason running at least 18 times.

Kyle Shanahan possesses a brilliant offensive mind, and he'll know to attack a Cowboys rush defense that ranks 27th in yards per game allowed, 31st in success rate, and dead-last in first down percentage. 

Mason has been given the second-most rushing attempts, which has also led to the second-best rushing yards this season. And we should see a more conservative game plan on the heels of Purdy throwing three interceptions.

I'm foregoing Mason’s -170 anytime touchdown odds (which are juiced as high as -170 at DraftKings), despite Dallas allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns this season (and that's even with enjoying their bye already!). Weirdly, Mason is the NFL’s only running back with seven-plus carries from inside the 5-yard line who has logged two or fewer touchdowns. 

This Over is juiced to -125 at BetMGM (carrying a 55.56% implied probability), so I'm taking advantage of the best price at DraftKings.

Our C. Jackson Cowart also likes Mason's outlook this week as part of his NFL Week 8 player prop picks, Phil Wood likes one of his touchdown props in his Cowboys vs. 49ers player props.

Best odds: -120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.55%

Cowboys vs. 49ers odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Sunday Night Football game info

• Matchup: Cowboys vs. 49ers
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET 
• Where: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
• How to watch: NBC/Peacock
• Weather: 63 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 13 mph NW
• Favorite: 49ers -4.5 ()

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