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Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: NFL Wild Card Weekend

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 11, 2025 12:07 PM EST • 3 min 56 sec read.

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield greet as we make our best Commanders vs. Buccaneers prediction.
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield greet after the game at Raymond James Stadium. Photo by Kim Klement Neitzel / Imagn Images.

The Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers met in Week 1 (a 37-20 Tampa Bay win), but that was long ago. When making my Commanders vs. Buccaneers prediction, I analyze what has changed since then and what we can expect for the NFL Wild Card Weekend rematch.

Tampa Bay hosts this matchup at Raymond James Stadium after winning its fourth straight NFC South title, and the Bucs are currently 3-point favorites, with kickoff set for 8 p.m. ET on Sunday (NBC/Peacock).

The plays below and our NFL playoff bracket predictions are both part of our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions.    

Commanders vs. Buccaneers predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Buccaneers -3 () vs. Buccaneers ⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Jayden Daniels Over 31.5 pass attempts () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Commanders vs. Buccaneers ATS prediction: Week X

Buccaneers to cover the spread: -3 ⭐⭐

Mayfield carves up the blitz

The Commanders defense blitzed at the fourth-highest rate of any team this season (34%), but another heavy-blitz game plan would play right into Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield’s strengths.

Against the blitz this season, Mayfield threw a league-best 18 touchdown passes and led the league in completion percentage (72%) and off-target percentage (9%) while also generating the third-most first downs (71). 

Mayfield's connection with offensive coordinator Liam Coen is uncanny. His overall 71.4% completion percentage and 106.8 passer rating this season were the highest in a single season in franchise history.

A different game plan for Daniels

Jayden Daniels made his NFL debut against the Buccaneers in Week 1. Thus, one can give the Tampa Bay coaching staff a pass for how poorly it defended Daniels, as it was difficult to tell or know how his college tape would translate to the pros.

Tampa Bay blitzed Daniels on 46% of his dropbacks in that game, and Daniels turned his 16 rushing attempts (tied for his season-high) into 88 rushing yards (his second-most of the season) and two rushing touchdowns.

Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is a brilliant defensive mind, and I trust in his ability to change the game plan enough to throw different looks at Daniels while also keeping him in the pocket.

The curse of rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs

There is no denying that Jayden Daniels projects to be a generational talent, as he became the first rookie ever to throw for 3,500 passing yards and total 800-plus rushing yards. 

But history is working against him, as rookie quarterbacks have lost seven straight road playoff games. Meanwhile, since 2002, quarterbacks making their first ever playoff start against those with playoff experience have covered the spread just 34% of the time.

I am making this wager at FanDuel, as it is the only one of our best sports betting sites where one can back the home favorites by laying a field goal at less than the standard -110 juice. Through FanDuel’s -105 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.52.

Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Commanders vs. Buccaneers best pick

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Jayden Daniels Over 31.5 pass attempts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Not counting Week 18 where Daniels got some much deserved rest, he had attempted 32-plus passes in each of his two previous games, and five of the last seven.

Tampa Bay’s pass defense already enters this game ranked in the bottom 10 in DVOA. Now it is dealing with several injuries in the secondary, with four defensive backs on IR and three others questionable (Jamel Dean, Mike Edwards, and Antoine Winfield Jr.)

Tampa Bay allows more than 24 completions per game (most in the NFL), and Daniels will not have to deal with weather issues like other quarterbacks will in cold climates this weekend.

If the Buccaneers do blitz Daniels again as often as they did in Week 1, Daniels does have the second-highest QBR of any quarterback against the blitz.

FanDuel has a slightly higher O/U of 32.5, so I am taking advantage of the best number and price at BetMGM.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers live odds

Commanders vs. Buccaneers opening odds:

  • Commanders: +3 (+100 via BetMGM)
  • Buccaneers: -3 (-120 via BetMGM)

Commanders vs. Buccaneers injuries

Commanders vs. Buccaneers game info

  • When: Sunday, Jan. 12
  • Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
  • How to watch: NBC/Peacock
  • Weather: 50 degrees, 25% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph ENE
  • Favorite: Buccaneers -3 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”