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Commanders vs. Buccaneers Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for Wild Card Weekend

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 6, 2025 6:55 PM EST • 3 min 28 sec read.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield throws the ball against the Washington Commanders, as we offer our Commanders vs. Buccaneers early picks, predictions, and odds for NFL Wild Card Weekend.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws the ball against the Washington Commanders. Photo by Kim Klement Neitzel / Imagn Images.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host the Washington Commanders in an NFL Wild Card Weekend showdown, as we offer our Commanders vs. Buccaneers early picks and odds.

These two teams met in Week 1 of the NFL season, with the Buccaneers winning in dominant fashion. Yet they're only favored by three points across our best NFL betting sites, as Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels has made incredible strides since his first start while Tampa Bay has struggled in recent weeks.

Can Daniels lead his team to an upset victory when these teams clash Sunday night at 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla.?

My early Commanders vs. Buccaneers prediction: Buccaneers -3

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Buccaneers -3

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%

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The Commanders are likely to be the most popular upset pick of Wild Card Weekend. They have a rookie quarterback who has been outstanding this season; they enter the postseason winners of five in a row; and they are playing a team wth two fewer wins.

Despite all that, the Buccaneers are the right play, and their rushing attack is the main reason why.

Bucky Irving has topped 80 yards in three of his last four, and he’s the team’s clear No. 1 running back - something that wasn’t the case in Week 1. He’s in for a huge game on Sunday against a Commanders’ run defense that has struggled this season, allowing 137.5 rushing yards per game. That ranks third-worst in the league.

As of Monday, 56% of bettors are backing the Buccaneers to cover, which is one of the smallest shows of support for a favorite this weekend. I expect that to wane as the week goes on and any concerns about Daniels’ health are put to rest.

Because of that, there is a chance that this will drop to 2.5 at some point throughout the week. If it does, jump on it as soon as possible.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Wild Card Weekend game.

Moneyline

  • Buccaneers best odds: | Implied probability: 62.12%
  • Commanders best odds: | Implied probability: 40.00%

After opening as 3.5-point favorites, the spread has dropped to three. This has dropped the moneyline as well. However, some of our best sportsbooks are more reluctant to change the price than others.

The best price available for the Buccaneers is -164 at FanDuel, a significantly better price than the -185 being offered by BetMGM. If you’re on the Commanders, there’s no real reason to wait to get in. Multiple sportsbooks already have the price under +145, so +150 may be the best you get all week.

Spread

  • Buccaneers best odds: -3 (-110) via FanDuel
  • Commanders best odds: +3 (-105) via BetMGM

Considering how the Bucs ended the season, it’s not surprising the spread is dropping. They struggled against the hapless New Orleans Saints in Week 18, and they lost to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16. They’ve won six of their last seven, but the Commanders are likely better than any team they faced during that span. Look for this number to either stay where it is or drop to 2.5, as the Bucs and Commanders are seeing similar support.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 50.5 (-105) via FanDuel
  • Under best odds: 50.5 (-110) via BetMGM

There isn’t much disparity between the best sports betting sites when it comes to the total. All sportsbooks have the number set at 50.5 with minor price differences. However, 67% of bettors are currently backing the Over, which is no surprise since these two teams combined for 57 points in the first meeting, and it was Daniels’ first start. Look for this number to increase if this amount of support continues.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers injuries to watch

How to watch Commanders vs. Buccaneers

  • When: Sunday, Jan. 12
  • Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
  • How to watch: NBC/Peacock
  • Weather: 48 degrees, 14% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph N
  • Favorite: Buccaneers -3 (-110 via FanDuel)

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.